Digesting the 21st Century-Part I-Political Indigestion
There's an unsettled spirit in the air these days, where the way forward looks a bit unclear and a bit dicey. The economy is going forward on a macro basis, but the micro looks touchy. Politics is at a narrow, trench-warfare level, with the real possibility of another president who wins the Electoral College but not the popular vote. Geopolitics is uneasy as well and theology is digesting a lot of things at once as well.
The concept that came to mind at dinner this evening is that we're digesting the new millennium and the rules of the road that come with it; it's post-industrial, post-Cold War and hanging between post-modern and post-post-modern. No Post Raisin Bran; I go with the store brand.
Geopolitics and global economics is settling into a period of high commodity prices driven by high oil prices and a relatively weak US dollar; there's too much new demand for oil and too many problems on the supply front (Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Nigeria et al) to see prices come down too much any time soon. We're seeing car companies giving a $2.99/gallon price guarantee if you buy a new car, and that's a bargain; not that long ago, it would bring sticker shock. Somehow (probably due to better logistics and inventory controls than a generation ago), we've managed to take such sky-high prices without seeing the stagflation of a similar jump in the last 70s; the economy has narrowly avoided a recession (knock on wood), inflation has been manageable and unemployment hasn't skyrocketed.
Still, when you're shelling out $40 for a fill-up when you were used to $20, it's going to put a crimp in your disposable income, and people are feeling that. They is a sense of unease in politics, where the status quo doesn't seem right, but people aren't sure about what kind of change to believe in.
Sen. McCain is a bit behind in national polls, but when you break things down on a state-by-state basis, he's leading Obama in Ohio, especially when you look at likely voters, and in a dead heat with Obama in Michigan and Wisconsin. There are some blue states that Obama is doing well in, like Colorado, but McCain looks to be on a fairly clear path to keeping all of the other Bush 2000 states.
If we use the Rasmussen breakdown and grant McCain wins in Florida, Missouri and Virginia, he only has to win Ohio among the swing states to get to 270. For Obama to win, he has to win Ohio and keep McCain from winning any other Great Lakes state (Michigan, Wisconsin) that along with New Hampshire or Nevada can push McCain over 270 as well.
Obama has to fight off ethnocentrism in order to win. It's interesting that we're on the verge of seeing the first black major-party nominee, but it may be his Islamic pedigree that does him in, not his race. The smooth, intelligent and multi-ethnic package that made him appealing to the intelligentsia doesn't quite sit well with blue-collar voters who bring a bit of xenophobia to the table, especially with stuff that's Arab-sounding. You can tell them that he's a Christian and that his nominally-Muslim dad was both an atheist and not in the loop, but a few swing voters will pass on Obama because of that otherness.
Quite a few others may pass on him because he's a bit too liberal, especially when a fairly moderate alternative is running against him. They'd rather have change they can be comfortable with, and McCain's job is to provide that comfort. Uncle John versus Cousin Barry.
It'll be interesting to watch.
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