Mark Byron

Digesting the 21st Century-Part I-Political Indigestion

There's an unsettled spirit in the air these days, where the way forward looks a bit unclear and a bit dicey. The economy is going forward on a macro basis, but the micro looks touchy. Politics is at a narrow, trench-warfare level, with the real possibility of another president who wins the Electoral College but not the popular vote. Geopolitics is uneasy as well and theology is digesting a lot of things at once as well.

The concept that came to mind at dinner this evening is that we're digesting the new millennium and the rules of the road that come with it; it's post-industrial, post-Cold War and hanging between post-modern and post-post-modern. No Post Raisin Bran; I go with the store brand.

Geopolitics and global economics is settling into a period of high commodity prices driven by high oil prices and a relatively weak US dollar; there's too much new demand for oil and too many problems on the supply front (Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Nigeria et al) to see prices come down too much any time soon. We're seeing car companies giving a $2.99/gallon price guarantee if you buy a new car, and that's a bargain; not that long ago, it would bring sticker shock. Somehow (probably due to better logistics and inventory controls than a generation ago), we've managed to take such sky-high prices without seeing the stagflation of a similar jump in the last 70s; the economy has narrowly avoided a recession (knock on wood), inflation has been manageable and unemployment hasn't skyrocketed.

Still, when you're shelling out $40 for a fill-up when you were used to $20, it's going to put a crimp in your disposable income, and people are feeling that. They is a sense of unease in politics, where the status quo doesn't seem right, but people aren't sure about what kind of change to believe in.

Sen. McCain is a bit behind in national polls, but when you break things down on a state-by-state basis, he's leading Obama in Ohio, especially when you look at likely voters, and in a dead heat with Obama in Michigan and Wisconsin. There are some blue states that Obama is doing well in, like Colorado, but McCain looks to be on a fairly clear path to keeping all of the other Bush 2000 states.

If we use the Rasmussen breakdown and grant McCain wins in Florida, Missouri and Virginia, he only has to win Ohio among the swing states to get to 270. For Obama to win, he has to win Ohio and keep McCain from winning any other Great Lakes state (Michigan, Wisconsin) that along with New Hampshire or Nevada can push McCain over 270 as well.

Obama has to fight off ethnocentrism in order to win. It's interesting that we're on the verge of seeing the first black major-party nominee, but it may be his Islamic pedigree that does him in, not his race. The smooth, intelligent and multi-ethnic package that made him appealing to the intelligentsia doesn't quite sit well with blue-collar voters who bring a bit of xenophobia to the table, especially with stuff that's Arab-sounding. You can tell them that he's a Christian and that his nominally-Muslim dad was both an atheist and not in the loop, but a few swing voters will pass on Obama because of that otherness.

Quite a few others may pass on him because he's a bit too liberal, especially when a fairly moderate alternative is running against him. They'd rather have change they can be comfortable with, and McCain's job is to provide that comfort. Uncle John versus Cousin Barry.

It'll be interesting to watch.

Edifier du Jour:Psalm 109:4-13(NIV)

⁴ In return for my friendship they accuse me,
       but I am a man of prayer.
⁵ They repay me evil for good,
       and hatred for my friendship.
⁶ Appoint an evil man to oppose him;
       let an accuser stand at his right hand.
⁷ When he is tried, let him be found guilty,
       and may his prayers condemn him.
⁸ May his days be few;
       may another take his place of leadership.
⁹ May his children be fatherless
       and his wife a widow.
¹⁰ May his children be wandering beggars;
       may they be driven from their ruined homes.
¹¹ May a creditor seize all he has;
       may strangers plunder the fruits of his labor.
¹² May no one extend kindness to him
       or take pity on his fatherless children.
¹³ May his descendants be cut off,
       their names blotted out from the next generation.

...and may a herd of camels have diarrhea on his front lawn. He doesn't like the guy, does he?

That's David, Mr. Man after God's Own Heart, condemning otherwise innocent children. He might have Ruth as his grandma, but he himself is ruthless here.

Does David the Bad Example go beyond Bathsheba? Yesterday, I was looking at David's multiple wives as a character short-coming, and we see what seems to be another short-coming here, at least from a New Testament, pray-for-your-enemies vantage point.

Are we supposed to pray for God to deliver a triple-whammy on our foes and their kids? That's not the God I've grown up with. That's not to say that God doesn't punish wrongdoing, but it seems out of place to ask for it to be applied to others.

 

Kentucky Musings

One of the other industries around here is bourbon; a puff piece on Buffalo Trace's six millionth barrel of hooch was in the paper, which included this interesting paragraph-

Buffalo Trace put up its 5-millionth barrel way back in 1981. That reflects the industry's slowdown years ago and its recent resurgence, Traver said. For comparison, in 2005 Jim Beam sealed its 10-millionth barrel. Heaven Hill Distilleries filled its 5-millionth barrel in 2006.

We have the dinner and keynote address for our Sullivan University retreat at Buffalo Trace's distillery in  Frankfort last fall, but never heard of the place before moving down here. I'm far from a boozer, but Jim Beam is one I easily recognize. Somehow, the Buffalo Trace folks have put out roughly half as much booze as JB and managed to fly under my radar.

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Speaking of Frankfort, I've been reasonably impressed with Gov. Beshear. Not enough to vote for him for reelection in 2011 (barring a real stinker of a Republican) but enough to feel comfortable with things. He promised not to raise taxes and didn't; he did try to get a cigarette tax increase through, but a Republican state senate shot it down. He tried to get casinos through, but the legislature couldn't agree upon a format.

In the end, he held the line and signed a rather austere budget. The local left-leaning fish wrap, a.k.a. the Herald-Leader, had piece after piece decrying what the budget would do to various state services, especially UK, but without a consensus on how to raise taxes, they wound up cutting spending.

That lack of smoothness has gotten Beshear a modest 39% approval rating; so much for a honeymoon.

Democratic respondents in the poll appeared most satisfied with the start to Beshear's term, with 54 percent giving the thumbs up. On the other hand, 70 percent of Republicans and 61 percent of independents surveyed reported being displeased.

There are probably a lot of Democrats who'd want Beshear to be more liberal and a lot of Republicans who'd want him to be less so; almost an inverse of President Bush's problem. So far, Uncle Steve's better than the Aunt Jennifer I left behind; that's a pretty low bar, I know.

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We have a primary coming up Tuesday. All the action is on the Democratic side, as Hillary looks to make her last stand here and a pair of millionaire businessmen, Bruce Lunsford and Greg Fisher, square off for the Democratic Senate nomination and to try and unseat Mitch McConnell. However, the campaign has deteriorated into each pointing out when the other has been (gasp!) donating to Republicans in the past.

Campaign finance records show Lunsford has given more than $60,000 to Republican candidates.

Lunsford and Fischer, both wealthy Louisville businessmen, debated their personal campaign contributions during the appearance before the Louisville Forum, a non-partisan public issues group.

After Wednesday's hourlong debate, Fischer said Lunsford has a habit of misspeaking. He noted that Lunsford apologized on the KET debate for supporting Fletcher in 2003.

Lunsford has acknowledged that his support for Fletcher was a mistake. He also has said he has given to Republican campaigns to protect his companies, and has contributed more than $120,000 to Democratic candidates.

Check out that passage I italicized. He admits to playing donation-for-access politics, donating to folks he doesn't like to have influence over them. That's an easy guy to run against in the fall, one who will struggle to make the culture-of-corruption card stick on Mitch.

The Neville Brothers?

The President unleashed an interesting can of worms, blasting a generic group of peaceniks in a speech to the Knesset-

Some seem to believe we should negotiate with terrorists and radicals, as if some ingenious argument will persuade them they have been wrong all along. We have heard this foolish delusion before. As Nazi tanks crossed into Poland in 1939, an American senator declared: ‘Lord, if only I could have talked to Hitler, all of this might have been avoided.’ We have an obligation to call this what it is — the false comfort of appeasement, which has been repeatedly discredited by history.

A year before that, Neville Chamberlain became the poster-boy for appeasement, going to Munich and signing off on a deal to give the ethnically-German northwestern Czech area of the Sudetenland over to Germany, proclaiming "peace for our time." The Germans, now in custody of the high terrain military barrier between the two countries, then proceeded to grab the rest of Czechoslovakia in a pre-season WWII game.

Was Dubya calling out particular Democrats as a new version of the Neville Brothers? Maybe, maybe not, but quite a few of them got hot under the collar. Nancy Pelosi was steamed and Joe Biden even let loose with an unabbreviated BS in his rebuttal of the president remarks. In addition, "Obama swiftly criticized Bush for a 'false political attack' and said the president’s foreign policy has failed to secure the U.S. or Israel."

Well, if it's a false political attack, there isn't much to be worried about; the truth will carry the day. However, Democrats are afraid that they might resemble the unspecified peaceniks in Bush's speech-"Mitt Romney said that he is reminded of the saying that the dog that barks on the other side of the fence is the one that was hit by the rock."

With Iraq being a long, but improving, slog, the Chamberlain school of using diplomacy and granting concessions to rivals may look good to quite a few people; Winston Churchill is a hero today, but he had his bad days, including getting the blame for Gallipoli, a botched amphibious invasion of Turkey in WWI while he was head of the British navy.

Right now, being a Churchill isn't popular, especially in certain elite circles; Iraq might be seen as the neocon's Gallipoli. However, Churchill managed to get back into power during WWII when his character traits were more in demand.

Bush isn't up for reelection, but John McCain shares a lot of that Churchillian resolve to do the right thing.  McCain knows a bit about being in the political wilderness and coming back; he might wind up making a virtue of that John Bulldog motif and get elected if people think that they'd rather have a bulldog than a Dalmatian running the show.

Edifier du Jour: 2 Samuel 3:1-5(NIV)

1 The war between the house of Saul and the house of David lasted a long time. David grew stronger and stronger, while the house of Saul grew weaker and weaker.

2 Sons were born to David in Hebron:
       His firstborn was Amnon the son of Ahinoam of Jezreel;

3 his second, Kileab the son of Abigail the widow of Nabal of Carmel;
       the third, Absalom the son of Maacah daughter of Talmai king of Geshur;

4 the fourth, Adonijah the son of Haggith;
       the fifth, Shephatiah the son of Abital;

5 and the sixth, Ithream the son of David's wife Eglah.
       These were born to David in Hebron.

We normally associate Solomon as the multi-wife guy, but David's doing a good job of looking like a old-school Mormon role model here. Six sons, six wives, not counting Michal (Saul's daughter) and well before Bathsheba (she shows up in chapter 11).

Can you say "Palace politics", boys and girls? I thought you could.

Abigail is mentioned earlier as a good example of hospitality, but Maacah sounds like trouble even when she doesn't remind you of George Allen; she's the daughter of a foreign king, one who might not be the best God-fearing lady. Even if you didn't know that Absalom would grow up to lead a rebellion against his dad, his pedigree would lead you to think that he'd be the one to keep a very close eye on.