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October 22, 2005

Riding Brownback-Part II

It looks like I was just a bit ahead of the curve; Brownback 2008 is a hit over at Red State-

For conservatives at this moment in time, there is no true standard bearer going into the 2008 presidential stakes. Frist is kaput. Rice, Giuliani, Sanford, Jeb, and other big names aren't running. McCain, Hagel, Pataki, and Romney are too liberal. Pawlenty, Barbour, and Huckabee can't command grassroots support outside of their states. Allen's abortion views will sink him.

Yet the answer to who will take up a leadership role in the post-Bush era and in 2008 may well be answered by the Miers hearings, when Sam Brownback has a very real opportunity to shine. He is ideologically solid, a Catholic convert, an unashamed conservative with international knowledge, and from day one, he has never been liked by the party establishment.

Whether this nomination dies, as it deserves to, or not - perhaps the attention in the arena will vault a Kansas Senator into the spotlight. Perhaps, like Sam Ervin during Watergate, this is an opportunity for a little-known to become a well-known. And perhaps, when the day is done, the conservative movement will have the champion they desperately need.

A few nit-picks. It does look like Rudy's running, or at least seriously thinking about running.

I'd agree with Augustine about Barbour, but I think Pawlenty and Huckabee just haven't command much grassroots support outside of their states; can't is a bit too strong a statement. The night is still young, with over two years before the first primary; Huckabee's further ahead than Carter was in late 1973 and Dean was in late 2001.

The interesting factoid on Allen that comes out in the comments (which might be a deal-killer as an anti-Rudy or anti-McCain) is he's a RIMLID on abortion and wants to keep it legal in the first trimester. That's actually not that far to the left of Dubya's position, who's a RIMLID as well but wants to see Roe overturned, but it's not something that's going to endear him to the theocons.

On to Brownback-I got to see him get interviewed on Fox earlier this week (With Brit Hume Thursday evening, IIRC) and he seem to handle himself well. He was a bit too pedantic/highbrow for general consumption, but he was talking about constitutional law and doing so rather fluently; in his defense, the conversation wasn't one that lent itself to a mass-consumption sound-bite. He making a good case for grilling Miers on her judicial philosophy.

Barbour got a flavor-of-the-moment blip in the polls for handling the Casino Coast part of Katrina well, especially when compared to LA. However, managerial competence only gets you so far, and Brownback's championing of the conservative cause will get him plenty of bonus points among the econcons to go along with his respect among theocons.

That may well be enough of a package to get him out of the low single digits and make him a plausible alternative to Allen as an conservative alternative to Rudy or McCain. We shall see if this is the beginning of more than just a boomlet, creating a cadre of what the Kossacks will eventually call the Brownback Brownshirts (almost a Googlewhack).

Given the intensity of opposition to Miers on the right, this seems to be more than a right-place-at-the right-time blip. I'll repeat what I said Thursday-"Brownback may well emerge as a hero of the Angrycons, playing Miers like Howard Dean played Iraq to emerge from the peloton." He may be starting to make his break, if that Red State piece is any indication; 169 comments as I go to press means that is a hot topic.

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