Mark Byron

Who's Got Crystal Balls?-2006 Version

Here's an interesting parlor game for New Year's Eve via Orrin Judd.

(1) Which of the following Axis of Evil regimes will fall in '06?

Syria, Iran,The PRC, Castro, Robert Mugabe, Paul Martin, Hugo Chavez, Kim Jong-il

I don't think Canada's inclusion in the list is fair, but we're likely looking at PM Harper by Valentine's Day; the Liberals are hanging by a thread and are likely to hand the Conservatives a plurality of the seats in the Jan 23 election. Unfortunately, it won't be a majority, so any Conservative government will need either the BQ or the Liberals to keep it afloat. The Liberals could well be back in power under new management by the end of 2006.

I'm not sure if there'll be a full regime change, but I have a feeling that Castro will be six feet under by this time next year, but by natural causes. It'll take the rest of the decade for Cuba to morph into a democracy once Castro's gone.

Everyone else in that rogues gallery will still be in charge next year; Zimbabwe would be the one most likely to change.

(2) The Senate is currently split 55-GOP, 44-DEM, 1-IND--what will the split be after the '06 midterm?

GOP under 50; GOP 60 or Over; GOP keeps majority plus a handful;GOP keeps majority minus a handful

I'm not exactly sure what seats will go where, but there are enough problematic Democratic seats where I'm expecting a net gain for the Republicans. Put me down for 56, although it could range from 53 to 60.

(3) The House split was 234-200-1 after the '04 election.  After the '06 will it be:

GOP under 218; GOP over 260 (or whatever 60% is); GOP keeps majority plus a handful; GOP keeps majority minus a handful

I haven't looked at things on a race-by-race basis, but my take on the political ecology is that a few marginal Republicans will get knocked off. My quick-and-dirty over-and-under is 230.

(4) Which will be the biggest Senate upset(s) of '06, assuming Santorum is toast (see all races here):

PA (because Santorum holds on); WV; MA; NJ; MD; HI; NE; WA; WI; NM; ND

Bob Casey Jr. isn't a good campaigner; he's ahead in the polls, but this will be tight. LG Michael Steele is poised for an upset in Maryland, especially if Mfume wins the Democratic nomination. Kent Conrad's vulnerable in North Dakota, even if Gov Hoeven passes on a Senate run, and Tom Kean Jr. will be the favorite to beat whoever Gov-elect Corzine picks to replace himself.

One race that isn't even on his radar-Florida. Don't be surprise if the Republicans win that seat, even with the baggage that Katherine Harris brings to the table. She's viewed as the villain of the 2000 recount by the left, but she's a far better civil servant that her rep; the Soros Brigades may well overplay their hand and get a sympathy vote for Harris by centrists.

(5) The current frontrunners for the '08 nomination are John McCain and Hillary Clinton.  At the end of the year will it be:

the same; McCain but not Clinton; Clinton but not McCain; Neither

That's not to say that there won't be movement below them. However, an anti-McCain has yet to develop on the Republican right; someone may well break out of the pack next year, but not enough to replace McCain in national polls. The general populous isn't paying attention yet, so folks like Allen, Romney, Brownback and Huckabee are "who's he" to Joe Sixpack.

The same's true on the Democratic side. There may be an anti-war lefty to challenge Hillary on the left, but unless she does something triple stoopid, she'll be the front runner a year from now. The question is who will emerge as the candidate of the Kossacks; Russ Feingold's making noises in that vein. That person may well come to the fore next year, but won't get past Hillary by the end of the year.

(6) The Dow finished the year at 10,717.50.  Where will it end '06:

Over 12,000

Over 11, 000, under 12

Between 11 and 10 again

Under 10, over 9

Under 9

General upward drift is the default value for the stock market. After a so-so 2005, holding the stock market under 3% growth would be hard. I'd be more confident making that call about the S&P500, for it's more diversified; a bad year for one of the DJIA 30 could butcher my pick.

(7) Alan Greenspan has boosted the Fed funds rate to 4.5%.  At the end of '06 will it be:

over 5%; under 4%; between 4 & 5%

That's a toughy. My guess is 5% on the nose; we've got a little more to curb oil-based inflation, but not much. I'm guessing one or two more 25-basis-point increases before the Fed calls it good; three would be stretching it barring some big supply shock.

(8) Who will win the 2006 World Series:

The White Sox; The Red Sox; The Yankees; The Mets; The Blue Jays; The Angels; The Indians; other

I'll take 23 teams over one, thank you. If I had to pick one of the listed teams, I'd take a flyer on the Tribe.

(9) After the '06 election who will be the emerging star in each party:

GOP:

Bobby Jindal; Joe Lieberman (sic) ; Ken Blackwell; Michael Steele; Bob Casey Jr.(sic) ;Tom Kean Jr.

DEMOCRATS:

Rahm Emmanuel; Kweisi Mfume; Bernie Sanders (sic)

Three brainoes. Joementum and Casey are still Democrats and Sanders is a independent socialist.

Jindal's becoming a common face on TV, especially after Katrina. However, he'll not get the exposure that Blackwell and/or Steele will get if and when they win their races.

If elected, Steele will be the first black conservative in the history of the Senate, unless someone with more historical game than I wants to make a case for some of the Reconstruction-era black senators; Edward Brooke was a RINO. Given that Steele will be in Washington and from metro Washington when he's home (he's from Prince George's County in suburban Washington), he'll be a fixture on the tube; Blackwell will get some long-term press, but not as much as Steele will.

Even though he's not a Democrat, Sanders will be a rising star on the left, especially if he gets a Senate seat.

(10) What's your personal prediction for a big story of 2006 that isn't on anyone's radar right now?

The messy breakup of the Anglican church. It should come to a head finally this year. It's on some people's radar, but not too many.

Don't Let The Door Hit You, 2005

It's not been the greatest year, more a year of tragedy than of success. Lots of folks are doing their year-end stuff.

The three big takeaways from 2005 was the Year of the Hurricane, the death of Pope John Paul II and the pair of Supreme Court vacancies via Sandra Day O'Connor's retirement and William Rehnquist's death.

We had a record 27 named storms, busting the record by six, forcing the use of the Greek alphabet as name backup for the first time, finishing the year with an active Tropical Storm Zeta out in the middle of nowhere in the Atlantic, tying the record for latest-form storm of any year. It produced some monsters, including Emily that raked the Yucatan, then three Cat 5s, Katrina, Rita and Wilma, that slammed into the US Gulf coasts within a month of each other.

The Roman Catholic Church saw the end of an era with John Paul the Great's passing; the cardinals chose well by picking doctrine boss Joseph Ratzinger as Pope Benedict XVI. He's not blazing any new ground, looking to digest what a prolific John Paul laid down in his quarter-century at the helm. This is important for the rest of the small-c catholic Church, for a pope who'll stick to his guns on basic Christian doctrine, especially where it intersects public policy, is very important for all Christians; so far, Benedict's done a solid job.

The President was presented with two openings on the Supreme Court and went 2-for-3 on his picks; conservatives forced him to take a mulligan on his middle pick. After picking John Roberts, a guy seemingly born to be on the Supreme Court, to replace O'Connor, he was slid over to replace Rehnquist when he died, getting through the Senate with surprising ease.

The replacement for O'Connor was very odd, where the president picked WH legal council Harriet Miers for the post; her lack of experience as a judge coupled with a sprinkling of centrist opinions on a number of issues had conservatives up in arms. Miers withdrew her name as conservatives were preparing to start a both-ends-against the middle fight in the Senate.

Bush then gave the conservatives what they wanted in 15-year appeals-court veteran Sam Alito, a solid conservative with a rock-solid resume. Alito seems poised for a contentious but very winable Senate vote; whether the Senate will have to "go nuclear" and scrap the filibuster rule remains to be seen. Alito is poised to add a fourth conservative to the court, one away from a majority that would be in position to alter the legal landscape, not just on abortion but on a number of other contentious issues.

There were a number of other interesting things, including a slew of scandals. Tom Delay had to give up his hammer as House Majority Leader when he was indicted on  campaign-finance law charges in Texas, Congressman "Duke" Cunningham resigned after pleading guilty to bribery charges, and Bill Frist was fending off an investigation of a bit-too-timely sale of HCA stock out of a blind trust. To top it off, shady Republican lobbyist Jack Abramoff's under the legal gun and close to a plea-bargain; congressmen on both sides of the aisle may be casualties before this story's done.

To top it off, the Plame investigation finally started to bear fruit; Cheney assistant Scooter Libby got charged with lying about where and when he learned about the CIA's most famous secret agent. We also had the debacle of the NYT's Judith Miller going to jail on contempt charges before revealing her sources. The grand jury's still out, so other White House folks, such as Karl Rove, are still possible targets of the investigation.

However, the President got an awkward gift late in the year when a NSA program of tapping US-to-foreign telecommunications without warrants was leaked; the program was of questionable legality, but it wound up giving the president a boost in the polls.

Iraq muddled forward, holding a successful constitutional referendum and a successful parliamentary election. Sunnis started to participate in the electoral process and the US is looking at starting to reduce troop numbers in 2006. Progress has been slow but steady, with public support split between staying and making a prompt exit; a nasty political fight broke out when Congressman Murtha called for the latter.

Other than John Roberts and Benedict 16, there wasn't much good news out of 2005. There's a lot of unfinished business in Iraq, in Washington, in the Anglican church (the slow-motion schism is moving at continental-drift pace, but earthquakes might happen in 2006), in Canada and the UK.  2006 will be a year where a lot of questions will get settled, as 2005's report card is filled with incompletes.

Edifier du Jour-John 21:9-14(ESV)

⁹When they got out on land, they saw a charcoal fire in place, with fish laid out on it, and bread. ¹⁰Jesus said to them, "Bring some of the fish that you have just caught." ¹¹So Simon Peter went aboard and hauled the net ashore, full of large fish, 153 of them. And although there were so many, the net was not torn. ¹²Jesus said to them, "Come and have breakfast." Now none of the disciples dared ask him, "Who are you?" They knew it was the Lord. ¹³Jesus came and took the bread and gave it to them, and so with the fish. ¹⁴This was now the third time that Jesus was revealed to the disciples after he was raised from the dead.

Here's to all of us, that we have that type of a catch in 2006, more than our nets should be able to stand, but they handle it anyway.

Praise Report

Good news for the end of the year; Eileen wound up getting a new long-term temp position that will start the Monday after the current one ends a week from today, with a pay raise to boot. Thank you, Lord.

Now, Lord, a paying job for yours truly would be nice. I'm playing phone tag with a tax prep place; the pay's not great, but it'd beat zero by a long shot.

Afternoon Musings

There are some non-chipmunk-friendly stories of "better" ways to go, but bowling a 300 just before exiting the mortal coil's not bad.

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2005's going to go down as the Year of the Hurricane, and what better way to close out the year for 'cane junkies than a little Zeta jones. How many of you knew that Zeta was the sixth letter of the Greek alphabet prior to today?

Will Zeta count as a 2006 storm as well if it manages to limp into Sunday?

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Here's a movie dying to be made-Farris Hassan's Week Off. You couldn't write a script as wild as reality here.

RFK Conservatives

I like this William Sulik rejoinder from earlier today. In a give-and-take on my Hart post, he started with "this is one of those reasons I say I'm not a conservative" and followed it up later with this-

I always like to think of myself as a Ronald Reagan liberal, a Bobby Kennedy conservative.

When Dubya's on, he meets the very core of that "Bobby Kennedy conservative" moniker; conservative in the sense of promoting free-market democracy, but in a progressive manner that's anything but status-quoian. Let me go back to a 2003 post, just after the Flight Gear Dubya action hero celebrated the end of conventional hostilities (alas, the unconventional hostilities linger like my sinus infection) in Iraq on an aircraft carrier.

Dubya’s team are optimists, the true progressives. I think back to the old Bobby Kennedy saying-"Some people look at what is and say 'Why?' I look at what could be and ask 'Why not?'" Rather than explaining and tolerating the bad things around the world, this bunch is going to try and do something more that financing another overpriced factory or another corruption-laden anti-poverty project, looking to get rid of the despots.

Bush isn't a status-quoian; he's doing things his dad wouldn't have done. Hart and other status-quo conservatives bring to mind the Dana Carvey version of Bush pere; "Can't do that. Wouldn't be pruuu-dent." Things like Social Security reform, tax cuts and invading Iraq weren't prudent, but were the right things to do (or try to do, for SS reform).

Your classic National Review conservative "stands athwart History, yelling 'Stop!'" That's not Dubya. He's more opt to steer History in the right direction rather than slam on the brakes. There are some times where he'll want to slam on the brakes or backtrack, like same-sex marriage and abortion, but he's generally going to err on the side of progress rather than the status-quo.

Bush will ask, "Why not?" Rather than accept a dysfunctional status quo in the Middle East, he's looked to improve it. Lebanon's managed to kick the Syrians out post-Iraq and Egypt's making baby steps towards real democracy.

Is that Wilsonian? Yes it is; you say that as if something's wrong with that. Is it idealistic? You bet.

Is it utopian? Nope; well, only if you're so pessimistic about Arab culture that democracy won't work there would it be seen to be utopian.

Bobby Kennedy Conservative? Why not?

The Metaphysics of Politics: Athens and Jerusalem or Jerusalem and Athens

I'm still working at getting around the Jeffrey Hart WSJ piece that has reverberated around the conservative Blogosphere. There were disparaging remarks about the South, Dubya's Wilsonian streak and the anti-abortion movement, enough to tick off a majority of conservatives. If he hadn't stirred up enough hornets, he made another whack at abortion here at The New Criterion (thanks to the Ashbrook Center blog for the link), dissing conservative Catholics like Richard Neuhaus and presenting abortion as a fait accomplis of modern woman's rights.

Who the heck is this guy? Here's a biographical piece. He's an old contributing editor at The National Review, a former Reagan (an early adopter-1968) and Nixon speechwriter and a Dartmouth English prof who tilted against the liberal culture on campus. So, he's got some conservative creds.

However, that's back when "conservative" meant being against Communism abroad and socialism at home, prior to the modern Republican party's addition of evangelical and Catholic conservatives to the mix. This editorial from earlier this year shows that Hart has little love for evangelicals. Here's an interesting passage-

Because Evangelicalism is sustained by no structure of ideas, and, beyond that, has no institutional support in a continuing church, it flares up in repeated "Awakenings," and then subsides as the emotion dissipates. Because it is populist and homemade, its assertions tend often to be ridiculous, the easy targets for the latest version of H.L. Mencken.

If we recall Leo Strauss's formulation that "Athens and Jerusalem" -- science and spiritual aspiration -- are the core of Western civilization, American Evangelicalism is a threat to both, through ignorance of both.

Edifier du Jour-John 20:30-31(ESV)

³⁰Now Jesus did many other signs in the presence of the disciples, which are not written in this book; ³¹but these are written so that you may believe that Jesus is the Christ, the Son of God, and that by believing you may have life in his name.

There are a lot of things we don't know about Jesus' earthly ministry, and that's probably for the good. We don't know what he looked like, so no portrait can become an earthly icon getting in the way of the trans-earthly Son of God. All of those miracles aren't documented, so novel ones that happened today don't get the "Jesus never cured [fill in disease]" or "Jesus never did that" line.

What we do have from the four Gospels and the witness of all the first-century people who saw Him (and 20 centuries of the Church that followed) is enough to give us life in His name.

Afternoon Musings

A new nickname for the NSA-the Cookie Monster.

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Here's an interesting piece on the recent gun murder in Toronto; it was a girl-next-door 15-year-old that was the victim.

I've been on that part of Younge Street when I was about her age. It wasn't a tough part of town at the time, just the main shopping district; it wasn't upscale, but not all that bohemian, either. I don't think it's decayed that badly in three decades. You don't expect a gang shootout to erupt at a mall.

I can see where folks might be alarmed; there's a class bias on a lot of urban crime, where it's one thing where "they" keep "themselves" and their crime in the bad neighborhoods, but it's another thing when it gets into "our" areas. This was one where it came into Joe Maple Leaf's back yard.

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This bears watching as the Canadians go to the polls next month; the Mounties are looking into some insider trading on a government announcement of a dividend tax cut on Nov 23. It seems that someone in the Finance Ministry leaked information and that the financial markets were snapping up dividend-rich income trusts; the nearest equivalents in American finance are REITS, but Bay Street sharpies have devised various other asset vehicles that generate income flow. Exactly who did the leaking (or, to be fair, whether there was a leak at all) is not known, but it's not good news for Finance Minister Ralph Goodale; PM Martin's having to give him a vote of confidence.

[Update 2:30PM-Drudge-of-the-north Bourque has Goodale "a bit rattled" and heading for the door. Anytime the leader has to give an underling a vote of confidence, his days are numbered in small digits.]

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The autoboomers are back in Palistine; an Israeli soldier died making sure the bomber didn't find his way to more target-rich areas.

I'm reminded of Dilbert's Scott Adams' Hanukkah riff, including the "Irish family named the MacAbees" and yarmulkes hiding receding hairlines-"I think more religions should require clothing that conceals your defects...people who are spectacularly gullible could wear explosive belts."

Edifier du Jour-John 18:16b-22(ESV)

So they took Jesus^{, 17}and he went out, bearing his own cross, to the place called the place of a skull, which in Aramaic is called Golgotha. ¹⁸There they crucified him, and with him two others, one on either side, and Jesus between them. ¹⁹Pilate also wrote an inscription and put it on the cross. It read, "Jesus of Nazareth, the King of the Jews." ²⁰Many of the Jews read this inscription, for the place where Jesus was crucified was near the city, and it was written in Aramaic, in Latin, and in Greek. ²¹So the chief priests of the Jews said to Pilate, "Do not write, 'The King of the Jews,' but rather, 'This man said, I am King of the Jews.'" ²²Pilate answered, "What I have written I have written."

For some reason, it reminds me of hard-core members of the opposition who don't want to recognize that the President is their president, too. Back during the Clinton years, I saw more than one Second-Amendment-loving righty with a "My president is Charlton Heston" bumper sticker. I don't recall seeing any lefty equivalents for Dubya, but I haven't been in any liberal hotbeds lately.

The Jewish leaders wanted to deny that Jesus was their king. Pilate wasn't listening; he might have known that he was right but that he allowed the execution to keep the peace.

Today, lots of people deny that Jesus is their Lord. He will be, someday; whether it's on good terms or not is up to them.

Morning Musings

A few pieces going through my head that should develop into longer posts later on-

• This Red State 2008 presidential poll. Can't anyone here play this game? The base won't stand for Rudy or McCain, Newt's too ethically challenged and Allen is underwhelming. Brownback's not that far behind Allen; look for his stock to go up
• This Jeffery Hart piece on a modern The Conservative Mind. He manages to tick off just about every wing of the modern Republican party.
• Toronto's seeing an increase in gang-style violence. What's a good PM to do? Blame the Americans, of course, especially in an election campaign.

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What's wrong with this paragraph?

The Utah Jazz got an assist from Tracy McGrady’s fiancee in their win over the Houston Rockets on Tuesday night. McGrady scored 21 points in the first half, then left the arena when he learned his fiancee, Clerenda Harris, was going into labor at a local hospital.

If your answered questioned McGrady leaving the game, that's not it. It's the fiancee part; someone forgot to tell T-Mac what order things were supposed to go. Give him credit for wanting to marry her after the fact, which is more than a lot of hoopsters do these day.

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On a lighter NBA note, the Pistons ran their record to 23-3 last night; that's the fourth-best start in league history. It's starting to remind me of the Tiger's '84 club that stormed out of the gate 35-5, except that the basketball season's only half as long game-wise.

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Bolivia's got a Hugo Chavez without the ego coming in to their presidency. A left-populist named Evo Morales won, the first "Indian" to win the presidency,  but he doesn't have the swagger of Chavez. He's not the US' worst nightmare, but talk of nationalizing the oil industry and legalizing coca production (but not cocaine) won't sit well. Methinks he may be more like Brazil's Lula and govern less radically than he campaigned.

Give him credit; he's planning to give himself and the cabinet a pay cut.

Edifier du Jour-John 17:25-27(ESV)

²⁵Now Simon Peter was standing and warming himself. So they said to him, "You also are not one of his disciples, are you?" He denied it and said, "I am not." ²⁶One of the servants of the high priest, a relative of the man whose ear Peter had cut off, asked, "Did I not see you in the garden with him?" ²⁷Peter again denied it, and at once a rooster crowed.

Peter was the ultimate Mr. Open Mouth, Change Feet, yet he was the cornerstone of the early church. However, this is a classic case of "if you can't do anything else, you can always serve as a bad example." It reminds me of the ghost siblings in The Family Circus, Not Me and Ida Know; the former appeared here.

We're often not in a position where we're having to deny knowing Christ, but there are a lot of times where we can be silent about Him (or our brothers in Christ) when we should speak up. The times when certain church leaders put their pedicures in up to their tonsils are ones that come to mind; "No, he's not one of mine, honest."

We're supposed to be servants of Christ in good and bad times, when it's cool and when it isn't.

Evening Musings

This probably won't be the last of these; they've found a mass grave in Karbala, the Shia spiritual HQ. Early estimates date it to the post-Desert Storm uprising in 1991, which Saddam crushed with beaucoup deaths. Cynics will point out that Bush pere encouraged the uprisings but didn't step in to help. Humanitarians will point out that low-grade genocide isn't the proper response.

Katrina racked up an estimated $40 billion in insured losses, $57B when you tack on Rita and Wilma. Note that's insured losses; there's still deductibles and red tape for those who had insurance and a gaping hole for folks who didn't have any insurance to begin with.

This is just weird. HOF-caliber closer Jeff Reardon had a bad reaction to his depression meds and robbed a jewelry store. He wasn't hard up for money and didn't have any bad-actor history. Send some prayers his way.

While we're on weird depression stories, I have to send up some prayers to Tony Dungy and his family. He's about as class an act the NFL has, a Christian gentleman; I've said so before it was cool to do so. His 18-year-old son James committed suicide last week; the funeral was today. Bad things can happen to good families.

Tony might be wondering if he spent a bit more time... but such things happen even when parents are doing things right. I pray that such demons don't get at him and that he's ready to go two weekends from now when the Colts start the playoffs; they have a first round bye.

Ku Klux Klander?

We might have the Great White North's analog to Kos. A Toronto Liberal activist named Mike Klander, head honcho of his riding (parliament district), had a short-lived blog; he proceeded to call the NDP leader an [anal orifice] and compared his Chinese-Canadian wife to a dog. Bene's bon mot-"He took the blog down, but, as everyone knows blogs don't die, they get cached." Here's the cache courtesy of Bene.

The former would be just another day at the office in the American liberal blogosphere. The latter was deemed racist, but I'll admit that the Chow-vs-Chow Chow line is more a play on words than hard-core racism. Political Etiquette 101: don't correlate blacks with any primate (which Klander didn't do, to be fair) and don't correlate women, especially minority women, with dogs.

Edifier du Jour-Prayers for Maturity

I'm getting back to my morning devotionals, but the format may be changing to include spiritual thoughts that might not have a scripture verse hook. After three years of doing these almost daily (although the last week's been an exception), I'm feeling a need to increase focus on my prayer life.

Two things are on my heart this morning as I wake up way earlier than normal. One is the areas ravaged by last year's tsunami; the anniversary coverage is wrenching. However, that's better addressed by a run of the mill post, for my thoughts are more geoeconomic than spiritual. Before I more on, the folks in that east Indian Ocean area could use some prayers; they're poor in materials and in spirit, but are in an area that the Gospel can get a toe-hold in more so than the hard-rooted Islamic areas on the other side of the Indian Ocean.

I got awakened by an odd dream. The church was breaking up into groups for some sort of program. I was in a lobby with my back to the main sanctuary of a church building I didn't recognize. A stream of kids were heading from my left to an outside door on my right to head off to their spot. A young-adult friend of ours hollered that she was holding two seats in the van heading for a young-adult meeting for Eileen and I.

Meanwhile, the unhyphenated adults were heading into a traditional, pewed sanctuary (albeit one that was wider than deeper, with a half-theater-in-the-round effect) behind me. One of the small-e elders of the church (no stranger: a guy I've known for decades) was heading into the sanctuary with his wife and was dragging me along; not intentionally, but the force of the crowd was making it hard to stay put in the lobby.

I pushed him aside in order to stay in the lobby, run blocking a septuagenarian linebacker aside. I was looking for Eileen, looking for that ride to the young-adult group, looking for anything but take the path of least resistance and go into the unhyphenated adult service.

Isn't that an interesting metaphor; I didn't want to be a mere adult. Touche, Lord.

There are times where society wants folks to not be adult. Advertisers want us to be old teenagers; that's to their benefit, for adults have got patterns set that the ads guys would like to break.

Bigger churches segregate young singles, since they're not married and don't have kids yet; that winds up treating them as adult teenagers, out of the greater church loop. Church culture doesn't even know how to handle childless parents, since they aren't bonding with the parents of their kid's Sunday School-mates. Empty-nesters also present a challenge.

However, I think there's a bigger issue for younger adults; not wanting to grow up. There's a Peter Pan spirit in us that doesn't want to give up the freedom of youth. For some reason a passage from The Authority Song comes to mind-

So I call up my preacher, I say, "Give me strength for Round 5."
He said , "You don't need no strength, you need to grow up son."
I said, "Growing up leads to growing old and then to dying
"And dying to me don't sound like all that much fun."

Most of us, especially as we get closer to AARP eligibility than we are to "getting carded," emphasize with that character; growing up means becoming a fuddy-duddy in a walker with no teeth. At least that's what Ol' Sloughfoot would like us to believe, with a black-mass amen chorus of modern media singing along with him.

 

Paul, however, had different ideas in 1 Corinthians 13(ESV)

⁹For we know in part and we prophesy in part, ¹⁰but when perfection comes, the imperfect disappears. ¹¹When I was a child, I talked like a child, I thought like a child, I reasoned like a child. When I became a man, I put childish ways behind me. ¹²Now we see but a poor reflection as in a mirror; then we shall see face to face. Now I know in part; then I shall know fully, even as I am fully known.

We may have more thrills as a youth, but drawing real close to God typically isn't one of them. Maturity brings you the discipline to be still and know God, seeing Him far better than you did when you were a young punk. You're still not seeing Him that well (we all need improvement, most of all me), but far better when you couldn't sit still and do something adult.

Paul's telling us to leave the kiddy stuff behind. That doesn't mean you can't play basketball or have a stuffed animal collection, but that we shouldn't settle for a 4-6 year old Sunday-School version of God. As adults, we have the ability to dig in to His word and have (in theory, at least; my mileage varies greatly) the ability to be still and commune with Him.

Easier said than done, but that's the Church's job and the believers to develop that maturity.

Evening Musings

It's already Boxing Day in Asia, marking the first anniversary of the big tsunami. It's still hard to fathom the scale of what happened; it was Katrina*10, but we've largely forgotten the folks in Sri Lanka and Indonesia and started focusing on our Gulf coast. Charity begins at home, but it need not (dare I say must not?) end there.

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I don't know of too many Jewish folks in the Peanut Gallery, but have a blessed Hanukkah; it starts tonight. Over in Israel, PM Sharon's telling folks to go easy on the goodies; the Israeli William Howard Taft might not be the best person to preach moderation.

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I saw this earlier this week via Drudge; the Japanese population is shrinking, having deaths>births for the first time since they've been keeping stats. The Japanese aren't xenophiles; they'll absorb foreign culture and technology but not actual foreigners. That's going to mean bringing in gaijin to offset a birth dearth rather difficult. Europe is struggling with the mostly-Islamic immigrant class that they've been using to offset their native demographic deficits; Japan's going to have to overcome a bad ethnocentric streak or face a rapidly aging population.

Productivity is a Four-Letter Word

Here's an interesting Globe and Mail piece pointing out that econ-speak doesn't always translate into English-

 

“Terminology such as economic union, and human and physical capital should be avoided in communications aimed at the general population,” advises Decima.

 

“Not only were these (terms) overwhelming for participants, one (human capital) was in fact offensive to some.”

 

Some people thought that being referred to as “human capital” equates workers to some sort of drone, concluded Decima, which conducted a total of 10 focus-group sessions last July in five cities across the country — Halifax, Montreal, Toronto, Saskatoon and Vancouver.

 

“I'm no one's ‘capital',” said one participant. “I chose to work; I'm not someone's capital,” said others.
 

Human capital describes the skills and knowledge of individual workers. From a finance perspective, it describes investing in education and training of folks, as the company will get a return of higher productivity. However, it does have a chattel-ly feel to it if you're economically illiterate.

Earlier in the piece, productivity was deemed to be a dirty word.

The answer, many economists say, is to boost productivity; that is, find ways to get more output from a smaller but more efficient work force.

But the concept isn't selling well with the public, suggests Decima focus-group research completed in the fall.

Some people are skeptical — they doubt Canada's productivity is sliding compared with other industrialized countries.

Others aren't sure what the word really means. Or they suspect productivity is just code for layoffs and squeezing more work out of fewer employees.

Productivity often means layoffs; once the boss realizes that if he can get the work done with N-1 folks when it used to get done with N folks, he can lay off someone. That's what essentially happened to Eileen in her office; automation made them more efficient and needed less folks to processes invoices.

Productivity is part of Shumpeter's creative destruction that helps drive economic growth; the excess workers can now work making/doing something else, expanding the scope of goods and services being provided. That sounds nice when we're talking macroeconomic theory, but creative destruction's no fun when you're the one being destroyed (or at least laid off). The old joke is that a recession is when you're neighbor's laid off, a depression is when you're laid off.

That fear of the downside seems to be stronger north of the border; more communal Canadians might be more scared of that process than Americans are.

Christmas Musings

We had a nice Christmas Day service at church, which closed with communion. This time, they went rustic, having folks break off a piece of bread from a big loaf. Given that I had a lighter-than-normal breakfast, I was a bit hungry and intentionally broke off a bigish piece.

Paul's on my case-"Don't you have homes to eat and drink in?" How many of you have done that at the end of a long service and Mr. Tummy's looking for lunch?

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I watched the Pistons-Spurs game on tape after our gift-giving saturnalia and a good dinner; the Pistons took out a Manu-less Spurs by 15, extending the Piston's lead for best record in the league to 2.5 games.

I'm going to seriously date myself, but Tim Duncan's sideburns and 'fro make him look like a throwback to the 70s, like he'd belong playing with George Gervin more than Tony Parker. In fact, he reminded me quite a bit of Artis Gilmore for a combination of playing style and facial style. Yes, Gilmore had a terminal case of facial funk, with an Afro's Afro and big porkchops that could only be used in a Wayans spoof today, but Duncan's definitely looking retro.

An interesting debate erupted between my mom and I over the annual Christmas gift of underwear (I don't think I've ever had to buy any underwear myself); is the new catch-phrase "tighty-whities" or "tidy-whities?" I was arguing for the former, mom for the latter. It's both, to a certain extent, but a Google shows that it's tighty by a 10-1 (95,600-9590) ratio. This Language Log post from earlier this year showed up in my Googling; confirming my quick stab.

God Rest Ye Merry, Gentle Man

It's an interesting Christmas Eve, as I wait with expectorant. I'm fighting off a case of bronchitis, so antibiotics prescribed by the hospital's Urgent Care walk-in clinic and generic DM cough syrup have been added to the pre-Christmas treats that Eileen got from her Secret Santa at work. I'm thankful to be feeling better than I was Thursday morning, where I was seriously questioning whether I'd be spending Christmas in a WV hospital rather than getting home from my job-hunting trip.

I'm walking wounded today; I'm napping a lot, but we did decorate the Christmas tree in our apartment this afternoon and go out to lunch at our favorite Tex-Mex place, getting in an hour before their 4PM close. Now, we're settling in to a quite Christmas Eve at home, watching some megachurch's Christmas extravaganza on one of the Christian cable channels.

This is the first time that I've spent Christmas Eve in my own household. When I was single, I always came home to my parents house for Christmas if I wasn't living there in the first place. In the four previous Christmas that I've been with Eileen, we've spent one Christmas with her Grandma, one with her parents, one with my parents, and one split between my folks and her Grandma's.

When I was driving back Thursday, the Christmas songs were hitting me in ways that they've never hit me before. I was coming home for the holidays, to my own place. Yes, we'll be over at my parent's house for a family Christmas gathering after church, but I was given a sense of contentment about Midland that I haven't had before. I'm starting to outgrown the idea that this is my parent's town and that being here makes me a middle-aged teenager.

I've also offered up the idea of striving for a career, whether it be in teaching or accounting; God's going to provide, but it may not look like a standard-issue career track, especially when I'm already 44 and not on any corporate ladders as-is. There are simpler and more valuable things, like family, friends and serving in a good church.

It's not so much the babe-in-the-manger Christmas that's on my heart right now, but the cozy-up-to-the-fire homecoming fellowship Yuletide that's hitting home. Yes, that slights what happened back in Bethlehem about 2009 years ago, but it magnifies what that bambino's currently doing in the hearts of mankind today, giving them a warm philios for the people around them that occasionally shows spasms of agape.

We're far from the peace-on-earth-goodwill-to-man vibe that we'll often get, but this season, God's love does shine through. Even while it gets obscured by ornaments, sales, "wars on Christmas" and gift-giving orgies, the power of that ultimate agape managed to wade through it all.

Christmas doesn't mean much without Good Friday and Easter. Without the last two, we merely had God visit us as a human. With them, we had a release from our sins and a risen Savior who's an is rather than a was.

A couple Sundays ago, we closed the service with Joy to the World. "The Lord is come." I went up and pointed out that the lyric is lousy grammar, but perfect theology. Not only has Jesus come, He's still in the house. His death and resurrection don't change the fact that He's still with us. That's something that a lot of folks will miss.

So, as I prepare for that cornucopia of goodies and gifts tomorrow, I will rest merry, or at least content; at least as content as I can be while I hack up parts of my lung. I've got a loving wife, a church family that cares deeply and prays up a storm for Eileen and I, a regular family that cares, and truckloads of friends in the Peanut Gallery who continue to be a blessing to my life. God's got my needs covered; I'll lick the crud that I've got in a few days and I'll find a job sometime soon

Meanwhile, let's celebrate Jesus' birthday tomorrow. He's not just "the reason for the season" but the reason we're all here.

Midday Musings

I'm fighting off some sort of respiratory bug, so blogging might be sporatic over the weekend. The worst of it, a feverish barf-bucket-by-bed night at a hotel in (believe it or not) Ripley, WV on the way back from my interview Wednesday, is behind me; somehow, it started to hit in the afternoon after the interview. I was barely able to stand and take stuff out to the car Thursday morning, but had just enough strength to drive myself home, cat napping at rest areas along the way.

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We had the perennial attack of the "RINOs" this week, coming on multiple fronts. ANWR drilling got shot down via fillibuster, although it's position in a defense bill is a bit awkward; however, Washington watchers note that a lot of odd orniments got hung on that big Christmas tree, including Katrina aid.

The Patriot Act got the moral equivilent of a continuing resolution, being extended by six months by the Senate, then trimmed to one month when Congressman Sensenbrenner objected; the House wasn't at full strength and needed unanimous consent to pass the changes. The issue of un-search-warranted tapping of US-to-foreign communications might have helped push that along, but there were a lot of concerns prior to that bombshell about it being a notch over the top on civil liberties.

To top that off, VP Cheney had to hussle back from a foreign trip to break a tie on budget-trimming bill; budget bills can't be fillibustered.

This is a perennial issue; moderate/maverick Republicans always find a few occasions to warrant the label, teaming up with Democrats to alter bills that aren't to their liking. My RINO quip was a bit off; you can be be a good Republican and have a environmental or civil-libertarian streak, for not all of the folks who wandered off the reservation are those dreaded northeastern moderates.

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New Yawkers can now get back to their normal level of chaos; the subway/bus strike is over. Three million dollars and six days lost pay; was it worth it for the TWU? The first part might have hurt the most, since $3m was about what the TWU had in the bank, further fines would have bankrupted them.

However, one of the sticking points was the city's plan for a two-tiered pension system where future workers got a less generous package than current ones; that is now back on the table. Not everyone's happy with that, but that's why it's called negotiations.

Going to bat for the "unborn" (as TWU boss Roger Toussaint called those future workers) isn't always in the union playbook; many other labor deals have set up two-tier systems where newbies get a less generous deal than existing workers. It's interesting that Toussaint used that phrasing; it almost makes him out to be a pro-lifer. It was even more interesting to hear a labor boss with a Caribean accent; he's from Trinidad origionally.

Edifier du Jour-John 16:16-24(ESV)

¹⁶"A little while, and you will see me no longer; and again a little while, and you will see me." ¹⁷So some of his disciples said to one another, "What is this that he says to us, 'A little while, and you will not see me, and again a little while, and you will see me'; and, 'because I am going to the Father'?" ¹⁸So they were saying, "What does he mean by 'a little while'? We do not know what he is talking about." ¹⁹Jesus knew that they wanted to ask him, so he said to them, "Is this what you are asking yourselves, what I meant by saying, 'A little while and you will not see me, and again a little while and you will see me'? ²⁰Truly, truly, I say to you, you will weep and lament, but the world will rejoice. You will be sorrowful, but your sorrow will turn into joy. ²¹When a woman is giving birth, she has sorrow because her hour has come, but when she has delivered the baby, she no longer remembers the anguish, for joy that a human being has been born into the world. ²²So also you have sorrow now, but I will see you again and your hearts will rejoice, and no one will take your joy from you. ²³In that day you will ask nothing of me. Truly, truly, I say to you, whatever you ask of the Father in my name, he will give it to you. ²⁴Until now you have asked nothing in my name. Ask, and you will receive, that your joy may be full.

Verse 23 sounds like a great blab-it-and-grab-it passage, but it doesn't allow us to ask for a new BMW under the tree. Or a career-type accounting job, to hit closer to home. My interview Wednesday went OK, but it was clear to me afterward that moving to Raleigh wasn't for me. I might want a career, but God wants a servant; he'll provide stuff here in the Midland area and to not worry about fitting into the standard career tracks.

Let's look at the key part- "in my name." We're Jesus' field reps. We operate in His power, but only for things that are related to our job. Requests that don't expand the kingdom of God aren't going to be signed off on.

However, a lot of us, myself included, are timid about accessing that power via prayer. While the Word of Faith-style folks err in the direction of assuming their prayers will be answered, a lot of folks err in the direction of not praying at all for fear that they might be seen to be presumptuous or that the prayer might not be answered. God's more than willing to hear you out, but reserves the right to say no.

I stumbled across an old Garth Brooks song, Unanswered Prayers, on the way back home yesterday. I'm not a big country buff, but I'm surprised in not hearing it before; I mentioned the song to Eileen this morning and she remembered it as a Brooks tune. Brooks' lyric is about not marrying his first love, but it also applies to other areas of life; here's the chorus.

Sometimes I thank God for unanswered prayers
Remember when you’re talkin’ to the man upstairs
That just because he doesn’t answer doesn’t mean he don’t care
Some of God’s greatest gifts are unanswered prayers.

That lyric's not quite true; it isn't that God doesn't answer, but that the answer can sometimes be "No." Answered prayers are also a great gift, too; it just doesn't make as good of a country song. God will often have something better in mind (or at least better for His kingdom) that what you're praying for; as flawed humans, we'll often ask for stuff that aren't in our best interest.

Don't be afraid to ask God for stuff; He'll let you know when you're out of line.

Evening Musings

I'm safely into Raleigh and have a better-than-average WiFI connection at my hotel. 14 hours on the road wasn't much fun, although it was an easy drive most of the way, catching rush hours along exurban US-23 between Flint and Ann Arbor and in the Winston-Salem/Greensboro "Triad" area.

That last is going to be playing with my mind. The Raleigh-Durham area has its Research Triangle and the Winston-Salem/Greensboro area is "the Triad."

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Interesting news day. The NPR crowd (I wind up listening to a lot of NPR on one of these megatrips) was playing up the Dover ID case. Here's the question that comes to mind-if laws can be shot down based on the legislative body's collective religious intent, what other laws can be shot down?

For instance, a lot of our welfare laws are promoted based on Biblical principles of helping the poor. I remember driving behind a local lefty (he had Kerry and Carl Levin bumper stickers, IIRC) with a "Peace, Justice and Equality are Moral Values" bumper sticker; his faith would tend to make him a fan of such help. I doubt that Judge Jones would shoot welfare laws down, but that's where his logic leads.

Handing out welfare checks doesn't establish Christianity. Positing the idea that a generic Creator might be behind the universe doesn't establish it either.

________________

New York without its subways. I haven't seen any footage yet, but some of it must look like the hours after 9/11, where folks staggered out of Manhattan. Now, they're staggering in on private buses (the city ones are struck as well), mandatory 4+ person car pools or by foot and bike.

If the strike goes on, could Pataki (or Bush) call in the National Guard to run the subway?

________________

Shareef don't like it, fundamentally can't take it. Someone forgot to tell Ahmadinejad that the Taliban didn't work; his latest attack on Westernism is to ban all western music. Iran will soon be safe from the corrupting influence of Karen Carpenter and Kenny G; even innocent instrumentals are off limits for broadcast.

Evening Musings

No, I haven't fallen off the planet. I'm about to head off for a interview in Raleigh Wednesday and have been busy with a variety of things. Once I hit Carolina yesterday, I'll likely have some blogging time.

I'm a bit on the distracted side; there's plenty of news, but I'm not feeling very pundity.

Pray for "traveling mercies;" I've got a lot of driving tomorrow.

Hollywood Swinging

A couple of Detroit Free Press movie reviews caught my eye earlier this week. Here's an interesting passage from a The Family Stone review that seems to encapsulate a lot of capital-H Hollywood thought.

Home is the ultra-cozy New England cottage of Sybil (Diane Keaton) and her college professor husband Kelly (Craig T. Nelson). Even before buttoned-down eldest son Everett (Dermot Mulroney) arrives, Sybil is prepared for the worst: Youngest daughter Amy (Rachel McAdams) has already met his girlfriend Meredith (Sarah Jessica Parker) in New York and pronounced her non-Stone material.

We've seen Meredith in her natural habitat as well, barking orders to an assistant on a cell phone while shopping for something correct to wear. "Correct" turns out to be a big concept for zipped-up Meredith.

Although the other Stone siblings who are awaiting her arrival -- pregnant, practical Susannah (Elizabeth Reaser); deaf, sweet Thad (Tyrone Giordano) and his longtime African-American partner, Patrick (Brian White); and free-spirited film editor Ben (Luke Wilson) -- are prepared to give Meredith the benefit of the doubt, she makes that exceedingly difficult. For starters, she refuses to sleep in the same room as Everett, even though all involved expect that he is going to ask her to marry him.

It wasn't that long ago that the issue would have been having the unmarried couple having to sleep separately to placate their old-school folks rather than wanting to sleep separately.

I think The Real World has run that gambit more than once; put in one straight-arrow Christian type amongst the bohemians and let the sparks fly. What's even more ironic is that they have Ms. Sex in the City Parker playing the prude against the gay couple and the "free-spirit."

The other review was of Brokeback Mountain. Here's an interesting line-"Although everyone involved with the film was hoping it wouldn't become another victim of the culture wars, that it would be accepted on its own merits as a drama, that was just wishful thinking in these polarized times." 

It's far from being a victim. The people who'd grouse the loudest about cowboys sharing the "love that dare not speak its name" aren't the people who'd go to the art house theater in the fist place. While there are some middle-of-the-road that aren't quite up for a same-sex romance flick, it's going to be made up of a lot of the cultural left making sure that they stand up for their guys, even when they weren't getting fired upon much.

Most of the people who'd be inclined to protest are (1) too exhausted/numbed by other Hollywood excesses and (2) too busy watching Aslan and company to complain.

The other interesting thing about the movie are some of the actors. Heath Ledger seems to be moving out of teen heartthrob mode (Roar, A Knight's Tale) and into a Serious Actor mode. Methinks that this might do for him what Rainman did for Tom Cruise, although it will come with a slight yuck factor for some of his female fans.

The other part that was interesting was the lady that he steals his cowboy from-

Jack gets horse-bit by a gorgeous rodeo rider named Lurleen (Anne Hathaway) whose daddy is rich and takes him into the family business. The less-lucky Ennis [Ledger's character] ekes out a hardscrabble existence with the sweet-faced Alma (Michelle Williams).

Hathaway's been Ms. Clean to this point, being the title character in The Princess Diaries movies (you could argue that she's still playing a princess here) and a surprisingly fun Ella Enchanted (If you got a chuckle out of the 70s rock anachronisms of A Knight's Tale, you'll be ROTFL with the wholesale anachronisms in Ella, including her belting out Someone to Love at a giant's grotto); she's gone to being a family-friendly ingenue to something a bit more worldly, even if she's the woman being wronged. Even if you discount the bisexual part, if you've got someone that good looking at home, why would you be looking elsewhere?

In defense of the movie, it looks like it might be a good movie once you get past the amorality of it; Ang Lee has a track record of being a critic-friendly director. It's not the first movie that takes great scenery and backdrops it against a story of romantic infidelity; Out of Africa comes to mind. The difference is that it's a bisexual act of infidelity that's at play here. Unlike some controversy-magnets (Last Temptation of Christ?) that were mediocre movies that had the cultural left rallying 'round the liberal flag, this might well be a well-done movie that would do well even without the overhyped controversy.

 

Still Fighting the Power

IIRC, the South Korean left has a track record of nasty street protests, honed back in the 60s, 70s and early 80s when the country was run by a right-leaning military junta and less-than-peaceful street protests were their best means of being heard.

The country's democratized since then, but even the leaders of the center-left parties are economic globalists. The Korean left's now clashing with another right-leaning dictatorship, that of the "People's Republic" of China, during WTO talks in Hong Kong.

Did I just call the Communists in Beijing a "right-leaning dictatorship?" Yes I did. They're authoritarian, pro-free-markets and big on international trade. How does that differ from the South Korean leadership of the post-war era? Korea might have had the semblance of democracy, but was run by the military and the chaebol bosses, who weren't above having a coup to get things done their way.

The prayer that comes to mind is that folks on the anti-globalist left don't start following this type of lead. If they feel that they system's so warped that they'll never win via democratic means, going to the street might be their best bet to get their views enacted. You've got some people on the hard left who think that the system is stacked against them, that a majority of the people would vote against the current economic system if they were given a fair chance to do so; instead, you get two parties tweaking the current system. Given repeated failure to get a majority on their side, they'll start to think that the modern political-economic system is the moral equivilent of those Korean juntas.

That type of anti-insitutional frustration could also apply to the nativist "right" as well, as we're seeing in Australia; that's a post in itself.

Edifier du Jour-Matthew 10:26-28(ESV)

²⁶"So do not be afraid of them. There is nothing concealed that will not be disclosed, or hidden that will not be made known. ²⁷What I tell you in the dark, speak in the daylight; what is whispered in your ear, proclaim from the roofs. ²⁸Do not be afraid of those who kill the body but cannot kill the soul. Rather, be afraid of the One who can destroy both soul and body in hell.

I did an Edifier on this passage back in February, but the news of the week has me revisiting it. Here's a key part of my comments from 2/1/05-

God knows the details. Doesn't matter how minute or insignificant they are, He's got it down, right down to the hair count. The five-dollar word is omniscient. The ten-cent translation is that God doesn't miss anything.

I'm not much of a civil libertarian when it comes to fourth amendment issues; while I'm not willing to go back to the J Edgar Hoover days where the feds were able to snoop into just about everything, letting the powers that be look in on your international e-mail or your library reading list without getting a thumbs up from a judge doesn't seem unreasonable.

That's mainly because I know God's looking down on what I'm doing. If I'm right with Him, I'm most likely not doing anything that would interest the NSA or FBI.

I understand that not every believer would be so comfortable. I could imagine some of the more pacifist side of Christendom would be of interest to hawkish folks as potential fifth columns, fearful that anti-war could morph into pro-our-enemies; that might be behind the nastiness behind the rhetoric over the Christian Peacemaker Teams hostages. However, even our pacifist friends could be models of transparent witness; if they're truly peaceful and showing God's love, some NSA staffer will get witnessed to by the guilelessness in their calls and e-mails.

My bottom line: we should be transparent as believers, having nothing to hide from the world. Well, maybe our social security numbers, so that we don't get identity theft issues.

Morning Musings

If I wind up e-mailing Richard Hall over in Wales about something and the NSA wants to track his radical Methodist group al Dersgate :-), they could be snooping on my E-mail. Without a search warrant, no less. The NSA has the authority to snoop away at foreign-to-foreign phone calls and e-mail, but Dubya expanded it to cover US-to-foreign telecom transactions.

The noise your hearing is civil libertarians nearly reaching escape velocity, only to be calmed down by a successful Senate filibuster over extending the Patriot Act.

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They might be looking for a new VP on The West Wing. Last I checked (I'm not as regular a viewer as I was before I got married) former chief of staff Leo McGarry was the Democratic VP nominee, adding Cheneyian gravitas to youngish congressman Santos' campaign; they're in the middle of the campaign to replace term-limited President Bartlett.

Real life just intruded; John Spencer's no longer for hire, having died of a heart attack. He did a good job of playing a complex character on the show. Even if it was a liberal fantasy of Howard Dean's wiser brother in charge, it was very good TV. Not having Leo around will be a loss, not unlike losing Law and Order 1.0's Jerry Orbach a while back.

NINKs

In the demographic literature, you'll hear about a breed of yuppies call DINKs; dual income, no kids. As of January 6th, barring some good fortune in job hunting, Eileen and I will be NINKs; no income, no kids. She's been given three weeks notice on her long-term temp job; the news just came this afternoon.

Given the lousy job climate in mid Michigan, we're seriously talking about moving. Our old haunts in Central Florida are starting to look good right now, especially with the cold and snowy weather we've been having; it's not record cold, but it is seven degrees colder than normal this December and we've already got our month's quota of snow.

However, the Research Triangle area of North Carolina has come up in conversation with Eileen as another possibility. Other than an aunt and uncle of mine in metro Charlotte, we don't have a major NC connection besides Spuddy. Marc, if you could give your two cents worth about North Carolina as a migration destination, it'd be appreciated.

Pray for Eileen and I. If you happen to know of anyone who could use us, let me know.

Job Hunting Bleg

I'm going to throw out a general request to my readership to let me know of job leads in your corner of the world. The job market in my home area stinks and I'm seriously looking to move on; as much as I'd like to let Eileen have some stability and keep helping out at my current church, I'm going stir-crazy being unemployed for so long. It's been a year and a half since I've had a full-time permanent job.

I've got a pocket resume in the continuation. If you're interested in helping me out, read on.

[Update 9:10PM-Most importantly, send a few prayers my way. God's got a spot for me somewhere, somewhen. I'm too busy thinking on career-planning lines to think vertically]

Midday Musings

Iraq held its elections today with a minimum of violence and big turnout. They're using a proportional representation system on a region-by-region basis, so coalition-building will be the order of the day ones the votes are tallied.

No one worldview will have a majority, so some form of broad consensus will have to be hammered out.

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Here's one turn of phrase that's interesting; former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi is often referred to as a "secular Shia." I guess that a polite way to say "nominal" (a modifier many evangelicals will frequently use to describe less-devout Christians) without questioning someone's faith. One assumes that the modifier is to distinguish him from the mullah-driven Shia parties; his Iraqi National List tries to transcend ethnic and denominational¹ boundaries.

North American applications? Hillary as a secular Methodist (no, it only seems redundant) and Rudy and Paul Martin as secular Catholics.

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Lloyd Carr gets my newly minted Adlai Stevenson III award² for clueless hypocrisy. He's now a fan of a playoff now that a 7-4 Michigan got bumped down to the Alamo Bowl.

Carr had been against a playoff primarily because it would extend the season for several weeks and conflict with academics.

"I have the same reservations I had before," said Carr, who believes bowl games would still be incorporated. "I just don't think that the commissioners and the bowl people and the TV people should be making decisions about who plays where.

"The bowl games have always been a reward for what you do in the season. So I think in fairness to the players … when you choose teams based on their ability to sell more tickets or fill more hotel rooms, I think that's unacceptable."

There have been a number of times in the past when Michigan's gotten a better bowl bid that they should because of their mystique and well-heeled and well-traveling fans.

Iowa got the benefit of the doubt on this year's Outback Bowl, knocking Michigan out of a New Years Day bowl (well, Jan 2 this year, but the second's "New Years Day" for the bowls when the first falls on a Sunday and the colleges get out of the way of the NFL) for the first time in a while. I agree that there should be a playoff (I'd opt for eight rather than 16), but sour grapes shouldn't be the motivator.

______

Speaking of New Year's Day bowl games, there's a big one on January 1st. Candlestick Park hosts the Toilet Bowl between the 2-11 49ers and the 1-12 Houston Texans. It could also be called the Bush Bowl, since the loser will likely get the first pick in the draft, likely to be Heisman winner Reggie Bush if he opts to skip his senior year.

______

The Bush team has stopped one source of incoming pundit fire; it's signed off on language for a "anti-torture" bill that McCain's been the front man for. Part of the problem flows from its ban on "cruel, inhumane and degrading treatment." That covers a lot of territory and leaves a lot of room for judgment calls; are female guards/interrogators degrading for a Muslim guy?

Still, it's a step in the right direction. Folks are going to play "bad cop" from time to time, but there's a lot of what the Israeli call "moderate physical pressure" in the current US playbook that seems over the torture line. The one case people site is the US officer who fired a shot past a Iraqi prisoner to (successfully) get life-saving information out of him; the guy saved his troops but got demoted for his actions.

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There's a interesting bit of news north of the border; former Governor-General (their mostly ceremonial head of state) Ed Schreyer will be the NDP candidate in a metro Winnipeg riding. He'd been out of politics since his stint as GG in the early 80s, working most recently with Habitat for Humanity. Unlike recent GG's, he had stints in politics prior to his GG days, serving as a federal MP and as premier of Manitoba.

There's a bit of an anti-tradition stir on this run, since GGs are traditionally apolitical during and after their tenure.

However, I find it interesting how apolitical Habitat is, given that a left-winger (the NDP is the leftmost of the three Anglophone parties) like Schreyer is working in the same organization as Jack Kemp. Liberals will like their poverty-fighting and approve of Habitat's patron saint Jimmy Carter, while conservatives will like the responsibility and sweat equity that goes with getting a Habitat house; people have to generally help build houses for other people before getting one of their own, and have to work hard on that one as well.

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¹-Denomination sounds a bit too Protestant, but is there another good word for the subsets of Islam like Shia and Sunni?

²From a 2003 post-"back in 1978 when he was running for governor of Illinois; he took the claudometer to record levels by blaming his close loss on Republican voting irregularities downstate.... The Democrats had Daley-machine "vote early and vote often" Chicago in their corner, so complaining about voting irregularities downstate was either the height of disingenuousness or total cluelessness."