I'm not sure what the future will hold, but the next few
years may be crucial for the future of the US. By 2008, if things go the way
they seem to be heading, a solid Republican majority may have developed. A
55-seat Republican Senate at present may well have expanded out to 60 seats and
a Republican replacement for Dubya seated.
Baring a change in public attitudes, the Republicans seem to have a lock on the
Senate and have an edge in the Electoral College. Five things could change
that.
The first is a dramatic tanking of the economy that would make big government
look good. That would give the Democrats hope of taking back the White House in
2008 and possibly the Senate in 2010.
The second is a major scandal in the Bush administration that actually in the
White House. So far, the administration hasn't obliged, as the Plame affair is
the closest thing we've gotten so far, and that seems to be fairly low-level.
The third is a foreign-policy debacle that will put the neocon vision on trial;
some on the left would like Iraq
to be that debacle, but it's still a work in progress. Alternatively, it would
be some sort of UN transformation that would give the Europhiles in the
Democratic Party something to write home about and campaign on.
The fourth is a Republican overreach to the right that will bring moderates
over to the Democratic Party. It would likely come on economics (assuming #3
doesn't come to fruition), for the Republican's gambits on social issues seem
to have majority support. The way the Republicans can do that is to do the
partial privatization of Social Security without financing the resulting
short-term shortfall; that will give the Democrats more ammunition to run as
deficit hawks.
All four of those items above are out of the Democrats control; well, George
Soros could try some run on the dollar to make the economy and the Republicans
look bad ("Who says he didn't try that last year?" I hear someone in
the back say) but other than that, they have to cross their fingers.
What they can do is item #5, which is craft an economic message that
will resonate with swing voters. It's not going to be the Democrats finding God
and tacking toward the center on moral issues, for the Bright wing of the
party's in charge;that could change in future decades, but not anytime soon. It's unlikely to be on foreign policy, for the Europhiles
seem to be in charge and the UN would have to somehow look good, which ain't
likely to happen. Given that the party's going to be secular and
internationalist for the foreseeable future, economics is their best shot.
What the Democrats need is a Newt Gingrich; are we already a decade downwind
from the Contract with America
gang? They need someone who can run on ideas to humanize the economy
without trashing it and have a robust yet internationalist foreign policy that
can be both explained to and sold to the swing voter. John Kerry isn't that
person, and I don't think Hillary is, either.
However, the Republicans had spent 40 years in the wilderness before Newt helped give Republicans the House back; we're now at the tenth anaversary of their return. The Democratic Newt might be be a teenager waiting to get elected to Congress in 2020 in order to lead a return to power in the 2030s.
By the time our Donkey Newt appears, we may have a dramatically different Democratic Party, and everything I wrote above would me moot for Donkey Newt. All the stuff above assumes the status quo holds, and lots of things can and will change in the next decades. A Great Awakening could lean the country to the right on morals and church-going blacks and Hispanics coupled by blue-collar evangelicals could push the Brights aside. A growing economy might make big government less desireable, or robotics and nanotechnology might make retraining and jobs policy more important.
For now, things seem to be leaning in the Republican direction. The demographics seem to be breaking towards Republicans in the long run and population trends seem to be making the House and the Electoral College more red. In addition, the Democrats seem to have gone from Sore Loserman to Splitting Headache Loserman, but cooler heads will eventually prevail and start to figure out how to try to pitch their vision to the swing voter. Whether that will come in 2008 or 2028 remains to be seen.
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