Mark Byron

Midday Musings

Sandy Baby can retire now; Alito got confirmed, 58-42. He'll be sworn in tomorrow. Four Democrats (Byrd, Conrad, Johnson, and Ben Nelson) crossed over to vote yes, while Lincoln Chafee earned his RINO label once again. Everyone breathe a sigh of relief.

Let's give some muted props to the 16 senators who voted for cloture and against Alito. They didn't like him, but understood that he deserved a vote.

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Coretta Scott King passed on. The civil rights folks lost a key icon; it might be tacky to ask whether she was doing more harm than good in her later years, as the movement that her husband led for years seems to have taken on a negative tone.

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Some quick thoughts on Detroit being the poorest big city; they're hosting the Super Bowl this weekend. The main reason that Detroit gets that honor is that its better communities are in suburbs, while other big cities have more of their nice areas in the city proper. Metro Detroit's not significantly dingier than metro Chicago or Philly, but the city proper's worse.

Eight Mile's not just Detroit's northern border, it's the border between Detroit's Wayne County and Oakland and Macomb counties to the north; thus, it was natural to have independent suburbs just north of the city, where much of the suburbs lie.

Oscar de la PC

It's nothing new, but the Oscars seem to go for the abnormal and/or politically correct message to give awards to, when they aren't rewarding serious romances or period pieces. A film has to be extraordinary to be mainstream and uplifting and get noticed; Return of the King was such a film.

Here's the five best picture nominees that were announced earlier this morning.

Brokeback Mountain- Gay cowboys in the 60s; double check.
Capote-Gay writer in the 60s; double check
Crash-Exposing the bigotry in everyone; not all that abnormal, but it ODs on PC.
Good Night & Good Luck-Murrow vs McCarthy; PC that even a conservative can live with.
Munich-Revenge as a Mossad science, making the good guys look as bad as the bad guys.

I haven't seen any of them, nor am I likely to; I might wander into Good Night and Good Luck if and when it makes it to TV. None of the others are likely to have you leaving the theater feeling better than you came in.

Edifier du Jour-Psalm 25:8-10(ESV)

⁸Good and upright is the LORD;
   therefore he instructs sinners in the way.
⁹He leads the humble in what is right,
   and teaches the humble his way.
¹⁰All the paths of the LORD are steadfast love and faithfulness,
   for those who keep his covenant and his testimonies.

David's got a NT vibe going here; God's bringing sinners to him. Although there are cases of repentance in the OT, the idea of God seeking out and redeeming people is one of the New Covenant.

However, there's a kicker. It's the humble person that God's going to teach.

I'm reminded of a scene in the last Indiana Jones movie, where Indy's making his way through a gantlet of booby traps to get at the Grail. One sign along the way talks about penitence; Indy thinks for a moment and gets on his knees, avoiding a shoulder-high blade trap. Indy knew that the humble, godly person is on his knees before God, even if he didn't typically live that out.

What God's looking for is for us to be on our knees, but not physically; He wants our attitude on its knees, looking to Him for support and guidance. It might not hurt your spiritual walk to be literally on your knees from time to time, but a lot of crooked people can be on their knees at church (that's not just a dig at high churches; you can have some scoundrels making a show of going forward at an altar call) without having a reformed heart.

No Alito Veto

Cloture passed 72-25; the threatened filibuster didn't materialize. The head count of yes votes is at 57, with Kent Conrad joining Byrd, Johnson and Ben Nelson as pro-Alito Democrats and Lincoln Chafee become the lone Republican to oppose him. RINO, indeed; this is a great fundraiser for the Laffey campaign.

The roll call is interesting; red and purple (swing) state Democrats voted for cloture while blue staters voted for a filibuster. A few exceptions to that; Evan Bayh all but announced a presidential run with a no vote, and Hawaii's senators voted yes.

Basilian Bleg

I've been sending off some resumes to colleges today; that's part of the reason for the lack of free ice cream today. The other reason was a pair of stray mouse clicks that twice wiped out a post on Frank McKenna dropping out of the Liberal leadership race. Thus, I failed to inflict the finance/Trek pun of Harper becoming Tobin's Q on an unsuspecting audience.

One of the positions I applied for is at Houston's University of St. Thomas. I only e-mailed my resume and transcripts this afternoon, and got a very nice e-mail back from the department chair. It's a Catholic school, but John Paul II's writing on economics aren't that far from my own; pure capitalism isn't the answer, nor is socialism. Our political economy debates should be on what's the best blend of the two to create the optimal commonweal.

St. Thomas is run by the Basilian Fathers. I know the Jesuits tend to lean to the left in their theology and politics, but I've not a clue on the Basilians. Could the Catholics (or knowledgeable Protestants) out there in the Peanut Gallery give me their $0.02 worth on them or on St. Thomas U?

Edifier du Jour-Acts 9:19b-22(ESV)

    For some days he was with the disciples at Damascus. ²⁰And immediately he proclaimed Jesus in the synagogues, saying, "He is the Son of God." ²¹And all who heard him were amazed and said, "Is not this the man who made havoc in Jerusalem of those who called upon this name? And has he not come here for this purpose, to bring them bound before the chief priests?" ²²But Saul increased all the more in strength, and confounded the Jews who lived in Damascus by proving that Jesus was the Christ.

Paul's interesting, to say the least. Converts from another religion are often the best witnessing tool to that religion; Paul's Exhibit A. To the best of my knowledge, all of the original 12 disciples were Jewish, but none of them had the theological training that Paul had. Paul was a Jew's Jew, a hard-core Pharisee.

However, Jesus corrected him on the road to Damascus. He'd been on fire for God all along, but had a warped version of God before that encounter. "And after, too," I hear someone from the left wing of the Peanut Gallery holler. At least he wasn't killing Christians afterward, just boldly proclaiming Christ.

Edifier du Jour-Acts 8:26-31(ESV)

²⁶Now an angel of the Lord said to Philip, "Rise and go toward the south to the road that goes down from Jerusalem to Gaza." This is a desert place. ²⁷And he rose and went. And there was an Ethiopian, a eunuch, a court official of Candace, queen of the Ethiopians, who was in charge of all her treasure. He had come to Jerusalem to worship ²⁸and was returning, seated in his chariot, and he was reading the prophet Isaiah. ²⁹And the Spirit said to Philip, "Go over and join this chariot." ³⁰So Philip ran to him and heard him reading Isaiah the prophet and asked, "Do you understand what you are reading?" ³¹And he said, "How can I, unless someone guides me?" And he invited Philip to come up and sit with him.

I'm picturing one of those tracts that are frequently left in key places; the person reading them might get a glimpse of the Gospel, but will miss the personal context. The genitally-challenged gentleman needed Philip to flesh out the Gospel for him.

Handing out tracts is a witnessing tool, but a fairly mediocre one. Being able to sit down with someone and discuss God with them is better. A tract can help get people to ask questions about themselves and God, but it's an actually person that can answer them, baring the questioner hearing the voice of God directly. Since that doesn't happen too often, we can count on being needed to clarify the Gospel with people.

Fish on Saturday

HOO-moo-HOO-moo-NOO-koo-NOO-koo-AH-poo-AH-ah. My inner Dave Barry's on the loose, either that or my inner 12-year-old (is there a difference?). Relief from a bad bout of constiptation comes to mind with that phonetic spelling of the former Hawaiian state fish, the humuhumunukunukuapuaa.

Evening Musings

I was just in the story of Stephen in Acts. Here's a questionable idea for a future headline for Canuck politics; the next time the Canadian MSM starts unfairly going after the new PM, especially on theocon grounds, you can call it "The Stoning of Stephen." No one's bit on that one yet, as far as a quick Google can tell.

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"UN Condemns Great Lakes Militias." It's about time; they've been terrorizing Michigan and Ontario for years, skipping back and forth across Lake Huron and Lake Superior with impunity.

No, they're talking about the Lord's Resistance Army and other nasties in Uganda, Congo and vicinity; the LRA is truly evil. I've not heard that region of Africa refereed to as the Great Lakes region before, so the initial headline was a head-scratcher; however, being in the BBC's Africa bucket made it clear they weren't talking about some of Tim McVeigh's old buddies.

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Here's a hopeful thought about Hamas. Right now, they're not changing their ways-"no recognition of Israel, no negotiations, no renunciation of terror."

However, where was Yasser the Gasser a quarter-century ago? Right about where Hamas is now.

Where will Hamas be a quarter century from now? "Six feet under like Arafat," I hear from some smart-asel in the back. Yes, that, too. They're either be extinct or more moderate than they are now. Not that we can afford to wait 25 years to find out, but they'll most likely "evolve," as they say inside the Beltway.

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Speaking of jihadis, I'm remembering a old saying. "How do you define a moderate Muslim? One who's running out of bullets." Here's Tom Friedman's latest, where he's essentially making that argument about Osama.

Better behind the Dallas Morning News' free subscription wall than the NYT's pay-only wall.

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Speaking of the Gray Lady, could that subscriber-only wall they've put up on their op-ed page be designed mostly to prevent fisking of their folks? They might not be making much money from people paying to read their op-eds online and be losing ad revenue from folks who have one less reason for going to their site, but will get much less badwill from bloggers tearing apart Krugman and company.

Edifier du Jour-Acts 6:8-15(ESV)

⁸And Stephen, full of grace and power, was doing great wonders and signs among the people. ⁹Then some of those who belonged to the synagogue of the Freedmen (as it was called), and of the Cyrenians, and of the Alexandrians, and of those from Cilicia and Asia, rose up and disputed with Stephen. ¹⁰But they could not withstand the wisdom and the Spirit with which he was speaking. ¹¹Then they secretly instigated men who said, "We have heard him speak blasphemous words against Moses and God." ¹²And they stirred up the people and the elders and the scribes, and they came upon him and seized him and brought him before the council, ¹³and they set up false witnesses who said, "This man never ceases to speak words against this holy place and the law, ¹⁴for we have heard him say that this Jesus of Nazareth will destroy this place and will change the customs that Moses delivered to us." ¹⁵And gazing at him, all who sat in the council saw that his face was like the face of an angel.

I'm reminded of an old saying-"When the facts are against you, argue the law. When the law's against you, argue the facts. When they're both against you, call the other guy names." The uncompleted Jews were in the third spot; they couldn't discredit Stephen by conventional means, so they had to make stuff up.

The leaders of the day knew that Stephen was right, but that they couldn't admit it. If you have to be in a kangaroo court like this, at least make the people who falsely convict you know that they were convicting a man of God; Stephen did that in spades.

Wee Hour Musings

Porkasaurus Rex is voting for Alito, as is Tim Johnson. That brings us to 58 yes votes assuming the RINOs stay on board. The Democratic leadership doesn't want to throw the GOP into the filibuster patch, as much as some of the usual suspects would like a fight.

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It might be one of the strangest Sister Souljahs to come down the pike, but Canadian PM-designate Stephen Harper's in a fight with the US over the Northwest Passage. Note to the new PM; you're supposed to break the ice with us, not building military icebreakers.

In Harper's defense, I don't think the US would like it if the Intercoastal Waterway was treated as international waters.  I'm not sure if it's prudent for the US to pick that fight, unless there's some greater strategic reason to push for such straits to be treated as international waters.

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Interesting trade. Wally World heads for Boston. How he'll fit in with Paul Pierce on the perimeter will be interesting; does one of them slide to the two-spot or does Szczerbiak come off the bench? Bringing Olowokandi in is an upgrade in the middle as well. The Celtics are only three games out of the last playoff spot; they'd be an interesting struggle for the Pistons if that were the case.

Edifier du Jour-Romans 6:16-19(NIV)

¹⁶Don't you know that when you offer yourselves to someone to obey him as slaves, you are slaves to the one whom you obey—whether you are slaves to sin, which leads to death, or to obedience, which leads to righteousness? ¹⁷But thanks be to God that, though you used to be slaves to sin, you wholeheartedly obeyed the form of teaching to which you were entrusted. ¹⁸You have been set free from sin and have become slaves to righteousness.

I started reading Every Man's Battle yesterday; I'm finding the book rather useful. The chapter I just finished looked at the difference between excellence and obedience. Businesses don't seek perfection; perfection's too pricey to sell. They seek excellence; something short of perfection that sells well.

The book's on sexual purity; by the world's standards, I'm excellent in that area. I don't even watch PG-13 movies and haven't looked at any girly mags in decades. However, that doesn't mean that I've been fully obedient to God on that front.

I'll keep things G-rated here; let's just say that there are some areas that leave a bit to be desired in my walk without going into non-chipmunk-friendly details. We're quick to point out our excellence-"I'm not a big sinner. I don't cheat on my wife, don't watch bad stuff on TV, don't look at any naughty magazines, don't go to bad movies. I'm far better than the average guy and better than most Christians, for that matter.... But, Lord, cut me some slack on [insert vice(s) here]. It's not that bad, really."

Minor sin's still sin. God's not asking us to avoid it, he's ordering us to.

Chauncey Billups is one of the top free-throw shooters in the NBA at just under 93%. That's excellent free throw shooting; Ben Wallace is lucky to avoid an airball 93% of the time. However, if we're following God 93% of the time, we're really not with the program; that means we're following our own desires 7% of the time.

Yes, we're all going to sin, and on a regular basis. However, we shouldn't try and brush "minor" sins under the rug and get a de-facto blessing for them, since they aren't the major sins "everyone else" is doing. We're shooting for 100% obedience, not 93%.

Meet the New Bosses

Feb. 6 is slated to be swearing-in day for the new Conservative government in Canada. The CBC piece had these as the key items on the agenda-

• A new Federal Accountability Act to police ethics among politicians on Parliament Hill.
• A drop in the GST [national sales tax] from seven per cent to six, as well as other promised tax cuts.
• Making changes to the justice system to get tougher on those who commit gun crimes.
• A new Choice in Child Care program to give parents $1,200 a year for every child under age six.
• Negotiations with the provinces over addressing the fiscal imbalance and bringing in wait-time guarantees for health care.

Most of those could easily get BQ support; the child tax credit is the most contentious, as the Conservatives play that as an alternative to more day-care spending.

The GST cut is actually a populist move; sales taxes tend to be regressive. The other parties would prefer keeping the money for Ottawa to spend or be able to target their tax cuts.

What's also interesting is the Liberal leadership race, which is starting to look like outgoing US Ambassador Frank McKenna's for the taking. Former Finance and Foreign Minister John Manley's not making the run. It's not quite the Seven Dwarfs that McKenna is up against, but the field isn't all that strong-

Other possible leadership contenders, such as Belinda Stronach, Scott Brison, Martin Cauchon, Ken Dryden and Michael Ignatieff, don't have the same level of organization in place to challenge him for the job.

Let's see. Stronach and Brison are new Grits; Brison was a PC MP who bolted when Alliance-PC merger went down, while Stronach moved over to the Liberals last year after losing a leadership fight with Harper. Can you picture the Democrats running a 40ish Jim Jeffords for President?

Dryden's a hockey legend and a sharp guy; I've likened him to Bill Bradley as a smart ex-jock. However, he's only been in parliament two years and isn't a great speaker.

Ignatieff just got elected for the first time, coming in with a lot of hype and a lot of flak for being hawkish on the Iraq war. He'd be a good choice, a Tony Blair of the Great White North, but he'd be a hard sell for the left wing of the Liberals. It'd be worth the price of admission just to see Bourque have to get used to a diet of Grits and Egghead.

Cauchon was below my radar until now; he was justice minister under Chretien and lost a leadership bid to Paul Martin. However, this is not the time to be a Chretien guy, not when reforming the mess Da Liddle Guy's team made in Quebec is the big topic in Ottawa.

Get used to McKenna; he's done a decent job in Washington, having to clean up a number of Martin rhetorical messes. Baring a big grass-roots drive for Dryden, I don't see the field catching him.

Honest Zealots

Holy holy sites, Batman! Hamas just snagged a majority; 76 of 132 seats, with Fatah garnering 43.

A few rhetorical bullets before the real ones start flying

• The "peace process" is six feet under; it was dead before, but it got buried today.
• Chuck the "road map;" you can't get there from here.
• Stick a fork in Labor. Well, they were done when Kadima got founded; they're crispy critters now.
• Bibi's the politically luckiest guy in town; the Likud hard-line looks a lot better now. It will likely be a Likud-Kadima coalition, but who comes in first may now come into question.
• Bugs Bunny with a yarmulke-"You do realize that this means war."

Now, to some more serious thought.

Are the Palestinians nuts? About as nuts as the Iranians when they elected Ahmadinejad.

Hang with me for a minute on this one. Ahmadinejad was running in part as the Iranian Shadegg, as the moderate clerics were starting to show signs of corruption. He was hard-core theologically, but at least he was and honest zealot; that's what went through some Iranian voters' minds. He was also running to the left on economics, becoming the champion of the poor.

Much the same pattern was in play in Palestine. Fatah makes Abramoff look like a choir boy and Hamas has a history of running hospitals, schools and other social programs. Yes, they're terrorists, but terrorists with a jihadified social gospel; half Salvation Army, half special-ops army. In a populous trained to dis the Israelis, both are selling points.

We'll now see how Hamas blends its private finances with governmental ones and how it blends its private paramilitary power with governmental military and paramilitary power. It may opt to lay low for a while, or it may decide to give Israel the middle-digit sal-oot right off the bat.

Will the Europeans back Hamas? Good question. A tortured "no" is likely.

Will the US give the Israelis the green light to play whack-a-mole with Hamas if they get frisky? Another good question. Likely yes.

Will Israel reoccupy the West Bank? Yet another good question. Likely yes.

Things won't be pretty for a while.

[Update 9PM 2/1-I deleted a comment that seemed to be comment spam. It didn't seem likely that this guy would be running this site, so I deleted the comment. Yes, that still gives him the link he seems to crave; I e-mailed the professor just now to check.

That means that Mr. Bauer's comment doesn't make much sense.]

Edifier du Jour-Acts 5:12-16(ESV)

¹²Now many signs and wonders were regularly done among the people by the hands of the apostles. And they were all together in Solomon's Portico. ¹³None of the rest dared join them, but the people held them in high esteem. ¹⁴And more than ever believers were added to the Lord, multitudes of both men and women, ¹⁵so that they even carried out the sick into the streets and laid them on cots and mats, that as Peter came by at least his shadow might fall on some of them. ¹⁶The people also gathered from the towns around Jerusalem, bringing the sick and those afflicted with unclean spirits, and they were all healed.

I'm still getting my mind around verses 13-15. "None of the rest dared join them" yet they were gaining followers. Could it be that people didn't want to be seen identifying themselves as Christians in the temple, but would do so elsewhere?

Even with the pressure not to belong to this new sect, the miracles brought converts. If God's moving, people will come.

There's a New Sharif in Town

The prophecy geeks will have a field day with this; Hamas looks poised to take over Palestine. The final results won't be out until noon EST, but the Fatah-centric government has resigned. Exit polls had Fatah leading 46%-40%, but exit polls aren't always the greatest; ask President Kerry.

More on this after breakfast.

Shop Around

Here's a precautionary tale for folks, one that a college finance professor fell for and didn't do his homework on.

Back in May, 2004, I was tested for sleep apnea and issued this C-PAP machine. The technician at the sleep center said that your insurance company would generally buy the machine for you after renting it from them for a few months. Of course, the machine is being issued to you at 5AM after you're done with a evening sleep test; even a personal finance professor isn't thinking straight at that hour.

I get the first bill a month later; the C-PAP machine's renting for $495/month. I've been laid off from my college job and take out COBRA insurance in September when my paid insurance ceases; under a fairly new law, people can buy their health insurance from their old employers at cost for up to 18 months. Given that my insurance costs ~$400/month, it would be cheaper to stay on, get my insurance to buy the beast, then drop out of COBRA and pay full retail for blood pressure medication and doctor's visits.

Fast forward to now. I'm finishing up month 17 of that 18 month coverage; my COBRA coverage expires at the end of February. What's more interesting is that that "few months" that the sleep lab guy mentioned hasn't happened; they're still renting that bad boy for $495/month. I'm on the hook for a ~$100/month copay, but I haven't seen a bill for the co-pays since the spring of '04. However, since I've been underemployed at best for that period, I'm not all that eager to remind them that I've not seen a bill.

This morning, I got up and did what I should have done a year and a half ago; head to the People's Republic of Google and check out prices for these bad boys. $425 here. $399 here. $380 here. As far as I can tell, that's the same model that's been on my nightstand.

Fool #1- Me. I paid about $5600 in insurance premiums largely to buy a $400 machine. Yes, I did get cheap medicine and $25 doctor's visits, but still, not a cool move in retrospect.

Bigger fool #2- the insurance company, who shall remain nameless. They're supposed to be doing this for a living and should really know better, but they've shelled out about $6000 for a $400 machine. With a little homework, they should have said-"$495 a month? In your dreams, Fleischman," and negotiated (I resisted verbing an ethnic group known for business savvy) the price down, or at least bought the machine outright.

"Racketeer" #1- The sleep lab folks. I wonder how many other insurance companies are getting snookered. Are Medicare and Medicaid being snookered?

The moral of the story-use your shopping skills on medical stuff. You wouldn't walk out of an electronics store without asking about prices; don't walk out of a doctor's office or lab without doing so either. Even if the insurance company's picking up most of the tab, you should check what the tab should be; a 10% or 20% co-pay of a big sum's not chump change.

[Update 7PM-The machine's mine; the insurance company bought it for me in December (I haven't seen the paperwork yet) and the sleep lab folks ate the copays. Cool.]

Rendell '08?

I saw this interview with PA governor Ed Rendell yesterday while doing laundry, and he seemed rather reasonable on a number of issues. He was coming across as someone who I could see in the White House.

I don't have a good link for this (since his old site archives went the way of the dodo), but I remember Patrick Ruffini likes him; he took a PoliSci class from him, IIRC. He's not that much of a moderate, but he has a more common-sense approach to things than most Democrats.

If Hillary doesn't run, Rendell might be a better alternative than folks like Kerry, Gore or Feingold. He'd be a tough out.

What sayeth thou?

Hillary, the Next Ted Kennedy?

Here's an interesting paragraph.

A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll finds the two women who are most frequently mentioned as potential presidential candidates of their respective parties are each opposed by about half the electorate. Among registered voters, 48% would consider voting for New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton for president in 2008, including 16% who say they would "definitely" vote for her. Fifty-one percent say they would "definitely" not vote for Clinton.

What's interesting is that I didn't find that on CNN's site; it's nowhere to be found on its politics page. Ditto USA Today. The WaPo mentioned it, but in Chris Cillizza politics blog; of course, Drudge was on the case. To get the source, I had to get to Gallup's web site.

I remember back a quarter century to the leadup to the 1984 race; the race was between Ted Kennedy and Walter Mondale, with Teddy a slight favorite. I can recall Mondale going up to Taxachusetts to campaign for Kennedy's reelection in 1982; his best comment was "I want to see Ted Kennedy represent the state of Massachusetts in the Senate for the next six years." I may not have the quote quite right, but the emphasis was Fritz's, which was a great laugh line.

Try 23 years and counting, Fritz. Kennedy never actually ran in anything other than the invisible primary that go-round; he had too many negatives to do well. Kennedy became Massachusetts's senator-for-life and has become the liberal's elder spokesmen (I can't quite bring myself to use "statesman"); a good career, but not as good as he might have hoped.

Might Hillary be this generation's Ted Kennedy?

Hillary could be New York's senator for the next quarter-century and be a leading liberal spokeswoman well into the 2030s. What she might not be is a president; the Gallup polls shows that she has too much baggage to win nationwide in a two-way race. Her best hope is for some Republican fracture (McCain as an independent or a big conservative third-party protest of a Rudy candidacy), letting her sneak in with a 40% plurality like her husband did in '92.

Given all that, Hillary might opt to be senator-for-life rather than risk her reputation on a presidential run. Or at least let her negatives get another election cycle behind her.

Evening Musings

The Pistons made it to 35-5, beating Milwaukee in OT. That's a milestone number in Motown; the '84 Tigers fired out to a 35-5 start.

Another interesting basketball story. The Artest formerly known as Pacer is now known as a King, being traded for Peja Stojakovic. Here's a piece from August, 2004-

While I was shuttle-driving last week, the local sports talkers were playing up a Stojakovic for Artest trade, given Peja's feud with Chris Webber and some Artest bad-boy activity; the one I remember most was against the trade, stating that he'd "prefer crazy to soft seven days a week." Peja isn't a muscle guy, to be sure, but there aren't too many guys his size who have a softer (here, soft is good) touch from the arc; he'd be a tougher match for Tayshawn in next year's playoffs and extend the Piston defense.

After missing more than a season in the last season-and-a-half, I wonder if the guy still likes his crazy mon. This isn't good news for the Pistons, for it makes Indiana a tougher out in the playoffs.

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One of the interesting post-election fallout in Canada is the resignation today of their ambassador to the US, Frank McKenna; he's the early favorite to replace Paul Martin as Liberal party leader. He's a former New Brunswick premier with no experience in federal elective politics; given the Liberal scandals, that's a good thing.

However, the poll numbers I saw on the CBC tonight (no good link) had McKenna with a whopping 17% of the vote and newbie Grit Belinda Stronach in third at 10%; it's not an overwhelming field.

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I'm still getting my mind around the People's Republic of Google. Just after they gained some libertarian props for telling the feds where to stick their subpoena, they go and sponsor a Communist Party-friendly version of Google for China, screening out stuff the government doesn't like. Here's the sorry part of the whole story-"Google rivals such as Yahoo and Microsoft already use censorship in China."

There's a part of me that's in boycott mode, but it's hard to get around all three of those. Suggestions for a freedom-lover's Google? A freedom-lovers new aggregator like Google News?

I'll keep my old Blogger account; it has my first year and a half of blogging and a lot of links from other people.

Edifier du Jour-Matthew 9:18-22(ESV)

¹⁸While he was saying these things to them, behold, a ruler came in and knelt before him, saying, "My daughter has just died, but come and lay your hand on her, and she will live." ¹⁹And Jesus rose and followed him, with his disciples. ²⁰And behold, a woman who had suffered from a discharge of blood for twelve years came up behind him and touched the fringe of his garment, ²¹for she said to herself, "If I only touch his garment, I will be made well." ²²Jesus turned, and seeing her he said, "Take heart, daughter; your faith has made you well." And instantly the woman was made well.

Malachi 4:2 has this messianic passage- "But for you who fear my name, the sun of righteousness shall rise with healing in its wings." In Hebrew, wings also meant the edges of a cloak. Thus, the lady both knew her scripture and knew that she had the Messiah at hand.

We can have some good food fights over exactly what Jesus meant by "your faith has made you well," but the woman was rewarded for her faith. There are rewards for our faith, too; not all of those rewards are temporal, but God will reward the faithful.

Starbucks Vs Tims

Two interesting commentaries on yesterday's election. I'm lifting my title from Warren Kinsella's (a sharp maverick Liberal) piece here (hat tip to Orrin Judd)-

I suggested that the election was going to be about hockey Moms and Dads versus the elites. With Stephen Harper championing the former, and a Westmount millionaire named Paul Martin personifying the latter.

Was I right? Well, I can now reveal that -- right after I posted that observation -- I received e-mails from two senior guys in the Tory war room. They told me that's exactly what they hoped to do.

And so they did. With every photo op (particularly the one showing the Tory leader taking his kids to an Ottawa hockey rink), with every positive statement (Harper stressing his middle-class roots), with every critical statement (the continual references to Martin's millions, and his decision to fly his ships under foreign flags), the Tory campaign was all about the revenge of hockey Moms and Dads.

It wasn't about Left versus Right. It wasn't about Urban versus Rural. It wasn't about East versus West. It was about Tim Hortons versus Starbucks.

There was plenty of rhetoric about how the Conservatives were shut out of Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver. However, Republicans rarely win much in New York, Chicago and LA; Staten Island is about the only place in those three cities that the GOP stands a chance. The Conservatives hold their own in other big cities.

I like the Tim Hortons-Starbucks analogy; I spend part of the morning at Tims at a prayer meeting with a bunch of chronologically gifted guys from Midland's "charismatic underground." One of them reads my blog, so I need to play nice.

None of these AARP-eligible guys are latte types; old fashioned coffee or hot chocolate will do just fine. While Tims does serve some trendoid stuff (their iced cappuccinos are addicting to those who like coffee), their stock-in-trade is coffee and pastries. They're not trendy and upscale like Starbucks; they're your quintessential neighborhood donut shop, nearly everywhere in Canada and beginning to extend their tentacles into the northern US.

The second piece is from America's top political geek (if you don't like the title, name your alternative), Michael Barone. Here's his big-picture take on the coffee-shop wars-

The Liberal Party is now primarily the party of culturally liberal metro Toronto, home of Canada's Anglophone media and corporate elite, of the Anglophone corners of Quebec, and of the economically lagging Atlantic provinces. The Conservatives are the party of Great Plains provinces and of the less metro parts of Ontario. The NDP is the party of a few central cities—Toronto, Hamilton, Halifax, Winnipeg, Vancouver. The Bloc Quebecois is purely and unblushingly Quebecois.

You can't use Red State-Blue State in Canada; not only do they have provinces, but the Liberals are red and the Conservatives are blue. However, the Liberals are largely isolated in big cosmopolitan/secular cities and the Maritimes, with the Conservatives holding court in rural and less-secular big cites where Tims will outnumber Starbucks easily.

Evening Musings

Interesting day in the news. The big political item south of the 49th is that Alito got through the Judiciary Committee on a 10-8 party line vote. A full Senate vote should go down later this week. It will be interesting to see how many Democrats break ranks, at least to vote for cloture; IIRC, DiFi is leaning towards voting for cloture even though she voted against him today.

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A couple of interesting media mergers. In TV, the UPN and WB networks are joining forces, creating a new CW network with the cream (or what passes for cream) of both network's programming. Given that I don't watch anything on either network, my heart isn't going pitty-pat, pitty-pat.

Disney's picking up Pixar is a different story. $7.4 billion. That's a lot of movie tickets and DVDs to sell in order to make that worthwhile. With income of $170M over the last four quarters, that's a P/E of about 44; you're having to count on Pixar cranking out a classic a year and then some to justify that cost. Pixar's good, in fact, it's incredible, but I don't think it's that good.

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Here's a scary thought. A mere animation company's worth half as much as Ford, who's worth $15B at present. Of course, Pixar's delivering a better product. Ford's hoping to change that with a massive overhaul. 30,000 jobs are going bye-bye, including the big Wixom plant in NW metro Detroit. They have the capasity to make 4.8M cars but are only selling 3.3, so some fat needs to go.

However, the poor folks in Wixom and elsewhere in Forddome aren't "fat," they're people. This is one of those classic cases of the destruction side of Shumpeter's "creative destruction;" the increased market share of Asian auto makers is the creative side.

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Mario Lemieux is hanging them up; he recovered from Hodgkins and a bad back, but an irregular heartbeat is causing him to retire.

Lemieux was the first player-owner of the modern era; when the Penguins went bankrupt a few years back, he was their biggest creditor due to deferred salary, so he became the biggest stockholder. You had a few player-owners in the early days of some sports; George Halas owned, played and coached the infant Bears and held the record for longest fumble return, running back a Jim Thorpe bobble 98 yards. However, Lemieux's relationship was unique in modern pro sports.

Canadian Election Post Mortum-Part I-Small Ball Won't Be Enough

The results from yesterday's Canadian elections weren't as good as Conservatives were hoping for, but they will likely be in charge when the dust settles. In a 308-seat House of Commons, you have the following results

124- Conservatives
103- Liberals
  51- Bloc Quebecois
  29- New Democrats
    1- Independent (maverick Quebec City talk show host Andre Arthur)

A majority would be 155. While it would be possible that both the BQ and the NDP could band together to prop up the current Liberal government, that ain't gonna happen. So, PM Paul Martin has announced that he's stepping down as Liberal party leader while retaining his MP seat.

The BQ now becomes the key swing vote. While the Tories and the NDP would be strange bedfellows, there are a number of reform issues they could agree on, but they're two votes shy of a majority; in theory, a Tory-NDP-Arthur coalition could win a 154-153 vote with a Liberal speaker of the house not voting, but that's cutting things real close.

However, the BQ is going to be nervous about cooperating too closely with the Tories; they'll have to figure out whether playing the fierce opposition will help or hurt. If they play the nay-sayer, they'll differentiate themselves from the Tories but may scare off some soft-separatists; Conservative-BQ dynamics is one big story to follow in the months to come.

The result will be chewed over for a while; the 125 seats means that the Tories have to make strategic changes to get to a majority rather than riding-by-riding tactical changes. Had the weekend polls (save SES, who nailed it after being the most pessimistic about the Tories all campaign long; the other polls must have had a pro-Tory bias) held up, the Tories might have been able to play small-ball to get to a majority.

The Conservatives need not make too many drastic changes to get there. I'll go over some strategies that can get them to a majority while staying themselves in future pieces.

Edifier du Jour-Psalm 20:6-8(ESV)

⁶Now I know that the LORD saves his anointed;
   he will answer him from his holy heaven
   with the saving might of his right hand.
⁷Some trust in chariots and some in horses,
   but we trust in the name of the LORD our God.
⁸They collapse and fall,
   but we rise and stand upright.

Let's try a 21st century remix of verse 7. "Some trust in tanks and some in F-16s, but we trust in the name of our Lord." Doesn't sound quite as good to the warbloggers in the Peanut Gallery, does it?

This takes us out of the "we'll attack Siam from Indonesia with three dice" school of geopolitics. It also takes us out of depending on our wealth or our wits (or our fists, although I don't think that applies to too many in the PG) in our personal lives; our first trust needs to be in God.

We can't count on fighting our way out of a situation (or buying our way out, or talking our way out) but we can count on God being their in our time of need. There are some situations where our strengths aren't helpful (all the firepower in the world's not helpful if you can't find what you're looking for, or can't shoot where they're at), but God's strengths are always helpful.

However, that doesn't mean that God can't use a tank on occasion to further His kingdom. It just isn't our first line of defense.

 

Harper Valley PM

The returns are starting to come in, and my prediction of 144 seats for the Conservatives seems a bit on the high side. Somewhere in the mid 130s seems likely.

[Update 11:20PM-It's looking more like mid-120s. With all but one riding reporting (which is a Liberal-NDP fight in Vancouver), the Conservatives are at 124]

Quebec was a high point for the Tories; they're slated to pick up ten seats with a strong showing, taking votes away from both the Liberals and the Bloc. A talk show host in Quebec City won a seat as an independent.

However, Ontario's proving to be tough. They were going to need to pick up about 30 seats in Ontario to get to 144; they're looking at about half of that so far. The Liberals are holding a 5% lead in the popular vote when pre-election polls had them trailing slightly; that might be the difference between the Tories and a majority.

They only picked up two seats in Atlantic Canada.

Returns from the west are spotty, but the two Liberal seats in Alberta are in the process of being snagged by the Tories; it's a one-party province tonight.

The difference between 135 and 144 isn't significant from a raw governance standpoint; either way, the Conservatives can get by with the support of any of the three opposition parties; a resurgent NDP will get them to a majority, as would the Bloc or the Liberals. [Update 11:20PM-That might not be true-right now, the NDP-Tory combo is at 155 on the nose (124-31)]

However, the closer to the 144 the Tories get (155 would be a majority), the more likely it is that they could get to a majority in the next election.

It isn't enough to get the Tories too cocky. It's enough to give the Liberals a serious wake-up call. It's also enough to let some air out of the sails of the Bloc; that might be the biggest surprise of the evening, as their share of the vote went from 49% to 43%.

However, we'll likely see a Prime Minister Harper sometime next month. It'll take a few weeks for current PM Martin to formally throw in the towel and for Harper to be asked to get the support of the parliament.

"Do you have something smaller than XL?"

I haven't been following the NFL playoffs as much as I have in the past; I just haven't desired to spend my "husband points" watching three hours of football, especially as the Lions have stunk up the joint as of late. Not that I don't keep tabs on what's happening, but I don't have a rooting interest or much of an interest in rooting.

However, everyone (or almost everyone) starts to pay attention when the Super Bowl arrives. As is the tradition, Roman numerals are used; the 40th Super Bowl is XL; but then everything about most Super Bowls are super-sized and super-hyped. I still remember Duane Thomas' contrarian quip from the 70s-"If it is the ultimate game, how come they are going to play it next year?"

Seattle is the NFC rep. They quietly grabbed the best NFC record in the regular season, and took care of business at home.

There's something that doesn't quite ring right with the Seahawks; part of it their being an AFC team before coming over to the NFC a few years ago. It reminds me a bit of Penn State being in the Rose Bowl; you understand that they're in the conference, but it still doesn't seem right.

However, they do have Mike Holmgren running things; this will make two teams he's coached to the Super Bowl, putting him in an elite crowd. Shula and Vermeil are the two that come quickly to mind that also took two teams to a Super Bowl; IIRC, the Tuna left New England before joining that club.

Pittsburgh is the AFC rep, doing it the hard way with three road wins. I remember the last team to do that was the 1985 Patriots; they called it "the Victory tour" after the Jackson brother's 1984 vehicle. Of course, they got steamrollered by da Bears in SB XX.

The Steelers likely won't meet that fate. They have a solid club that was better than their record, and have Jerome Bettis coming to close out his career in his hometown of Detroit. They'll be the sentimental favorite if not the betting favorite. If only to be in solidarity with Kevin, I'll be rooting for them.

Political Exorcism

This Kathy Shaidle post had me laughing first and thinking deeply second. For those of you in the Peanut Gallery who haven't been paying attention, it's election day in Canada and the ruling Liberals are on their last legs, being down by about 10% in the polls this weekend.

Borrowing from Mark 9 and/or Matthew 17, Shaidle's Election Day post is headlined "This kind [of demon] does not go out except by prayer and fasting." She continues-

And voting.

But prayer and fasting doesn't hurt.

That's funny, but it's only funny if your ready to spin today's vote as a political exorcism, casting the Martin government as demons. As much as I'm not a fan of the Canadian Liberals, they aren't demons. Probably oppressed by some, but not demons themselves.

There is a unhealthy spirit of corruption in Ottawa that has Ol' Sloughfoot egging it on, but that's in part due to the Liberals being in power for a while. Before folks write that off as some neocon rant, the same could well be said for the modern GOP; Abramoff might well have been more toxic to how Washington was run than the sponsorship scandal and the apparent leaking of a dividend tax cut were to how Ottawa was run.

Yes, there are some differences; the Republicans have been quicker to disown the folks involved in Casinogate than the Liberals were to distance themselves from their bad apples. It's hard for a party to investigate its own bad apples; the tendency is to sweep things under the rug and to give "your guys" the benefit of the doubt. However, that doesn't make either party inherently corrupt; it's power that does the corrupting, and congressional Republicans and parliamentary Liberals have been in power for over a decade.

The Democrats were needed to clean house after Watergate bringing transparency to opaque corruptions of the era. Canadian politics isn't as corrupt as the early-70s US is, but reforms are best done by the opposition. The Conservatives may be the folks to perform the "exorcism" but the demon isn't the Liberals, it's the corrupting effects of power.

The idea of an exorcism to drive out the demon without killing the person being possessed. In this case, the Liberals aren't the demon, they're the people being possessed by the corruption demon. The government isn't some vampire than needs a stake in the heart¹, but a patient that needs a cure.

There is an honest case to be made for larger, more compassionate government. There's also an honest case to be made for Canada keeping a proper distance from the US in foreign affairs. There's also an honest case to be made for how federal Canada should be, looking at what should be done on a federal level and what should be done at a provincial level.

I don't see Paul Martin making such honest cases, but a less bombastic/demagogic Liberal leader should be allowed to make those cases in the future without being seen as a demon. Once the Liberals get the current scandals behind them and get new management, they'll be back in position to press those (and other) cases and better contend for power once again.

The other side isn't a demon. We need to remember that. Conservatives on both side of the 49th should remember that tonight and in the days to come. While Conservatives in the north will look to clean up their corruption with a new government, conservatives in the south should work on cleaning house after Casinogate and get back to the spirit of transparency that that Class of '94 came in with. The demon is nontransparent power, and it can strike at any party in power.

¹ That metaphor is often used in conservative circles; Rush used to run a series of Count Taxula ads (with his sidekick Algore) at Clinton's expense.

Morning Musings

I thought T-Mac was channeling His Airness when he went off for 43 against the Pistons last night; thankfully, it was in a losing cause.

No, that honor goes to Kobe, who treated Toronto's defense like the Liberal brain trust and lit them up for 81. 28-46 from the field, including 7-13 for the arc, and 18-20 from the line. Of course, he only had two assists. That's the best line in NBA history save Wilt Chamberlain's 100 back when I was in diapers.

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Speaking of those Grits (Who says they don't serve Grits up north? Tories like them deep-fried), they're ten points back in the polls going into today's elections. The PM's whistling past the graveyard as he puts up a brave front. "During the rallies and at a news conference, Martin said the predictions of his party's demise are premature." By a few hours, maybe.

No, it won't be the stomping the Conservatives got in 1993, as the ruling party got leveled down to two seats with even the PM losing her seat; however, the Liberals aren't getting double-whammied by the start of the BQ and the Reform party at the same time. However, the question seems to be how big a plurality the Tories will get and whether it will be a majority of the seats.

National polls won't help much there, since elections are run on a riding-by-riding basis, and models aren't going to work well in many places. Quebec will be the toughest nut to predict, since we've not had the BQ and a viable Conservative party both in place for a while. How the Tory surge in the Quebec polls will play out will be interesting. If it translates into a lot of strong seconds, it'll merely be a plurality nationally for the Conservatives; if they can get 6-10 seats out of it, then we can have Donald Sutherland's nightmare of a Tory majority come true.

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I'm not sure when the press conference is, but Ford's slated to announce some big changes this morning, including plant closings. Our area of Michigan's more GM-centric than Ford, but Metro Detroit will sure be hurt; the suburban Wixom plant is rumored to be on the hit list.

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The West Wing's not going to break in a new administration; they're hanging it up at the end of this season.

Edifier du Jour-Psalm 19:14(ESV)

¹⁴Let the words of my mouth and the meditation of my heart
   be acceptable in your sight,
   O LORD, my rock and my redeemer.

Amen. I'm just going to lift that one up as a prayer without further commentary.