Mark Byron

Friday Musings

I'm coming up for air after a busy week, and there are a lot of interesting news items.

The Sean Taylor murder was the big sports news of the week, but it might have some interesting implications beyond football; it seems that a rough past came back to haunt Taylor, although that's informed speculation. One of the more intriguing pieces of the week is this Jason Whitlock piece taking the hip-hop culture to task as the "Black KKK."

Rather than whine about white folks' insensitivity or reserve a special place of sorrow for rich athletes, we'd be better served mustering the kind of outrage and courage it took in the 1950s and 1960s to stop the white KKK from hanging black men from trees.

But we don't want to deal with ourselves. We take great joy in prescribing medicine to cure the hate in other people's hearts. Meanwhile, our self-hatred, on full display for the world to see, remains untreated, undiagnosed and unrepentant.

Our self-hatred has been set to music and reinforced by a pervasive culture that promotes a crab-in-barrel mentality.

You're damn straight I blame hip hop for playing a role in the genocide of American black men. When your leading causes of death and dysfunction are murder, ignorance and incarceration, there's no reason to give a free pass to a culture that celebrates murder, ignorance and incarceration.

Strong stuff that needs to be heard by folks that don't read the sport section.

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Good news out of New Hampshire, and I'm not talking about Mike Huckabee making a good move in the polls. The hostage standoff at the Clinton campaign office in Rochester, NH ended peacefully, with possibly the best dressed hostage-taker in recent history turning himself in.

Shortly after releasing the last hostage, Leeland Eisenberg walked out of the storefront office, put down a homemade bomb-like package and was immediately surrounded by SWAT team with guns drawn.

The suspect — clad in gray slacks, white dress shirt and a red tie — was put on the ground, handcuffed and taken two blocks to the police office in the back of a tactical response vehicle

He's dressed better than I am, and I'm finishing up teaching a Managerial Econ class. Nobody got hurt; he had let all the hostages go without hurting anyone. Next, we need to have Eisenberg's uncertainty tamped down with some more counseling and drugs.

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An media icon of my childhood, Robert "Evil" Knievel, passed on. There have been daredevils before and since, but he mastered the art of marketing himself jumping over stuff. He also knew how to push a motorcycle and the human body to its limits; he's very fortunate to have died of lung problems at 69 than from one of his many nasty spills, where he broke just about every bone available to break.

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Speaking of icons, a more noble one passed on yesterday. Henry Hyde, he of the no-federal-abortion-funding Hyde Amendment, went to his reward. Other than an affair as a younger man that came out as partial payback for Hyde's work helping impeach Bill Clinton for lying about his affairs, there wasn't a whole lot of dirt to be found on Hyde.

"Henry Hyde was a credit to public service and to the House of Representatives," said Democratic Sen. Patrick Leahy of Vermont, chairman of the Judiciary Committee. "He practiced the old school values like civility, which help make the legislative process work. And he knew how to defuse a difficult situation with humor."

The white-maned, physically imposing Hyde was a throwback to a different era, a man who was genuinely liked by his opponents for his wit, charm and fairness. But he could also infuriate them with his positions on some of the more controversial issues of the day.

When someone almost a polar political opposite like Leahy is saying nice things about you, you had to be especially nice.

"Five-Fold Ministry? I love origami."

Andy Jackson's fighting off a bad cold and is asking for prayer. At least one's headed your way, sir. If it is really a cold, prayer is going to work far better than the antibiotics he's on, since a cold is a virus and isn't affected by antibiotics; all antibiotics can do is fend off secondary bacterial infections.

However, that's not what yanked the chatty ring today, it was his next post, which I'll cut and paste whole.

Mike Bickle’s International House of Prayer movement is rooted in a specific view of the end times that they call “Apostolic Pre-Millennialism.”

Biblical Studies of the End Times: Mike Bickle and other IHOP–KC leaders teach each Saturday night on understanding biblical end-time prophecy. The focus is on equipping forerunners to be a voice preparing the way of Lord and exploring Scripture to show how we as the Church are to respond in the End Times. Learn what God has said about the events of the last days through both Old and New Testament writers.

What are your thoughts?   I encourage you to blog on this viewpoint.

Kansas City raised some eyebrows, for there was a charismatic prophetic movement coming out of there a few years back, and Bickle's name rung a distant bell from the modern-day prophet circle. Here's the "money graf" from Bickle's Wikipedia-

Bickle was formerly pastor of Kansas City Fellowship (now the Metro Christian Fellowship). He was the Senior Pastor to the "Kansas City Prophets" in the 1980s and 1990s, which included Bob Jones, John Paul Jackson and others.

Note that this Bob Jones here has no relation to the Bob Jones University folks; BJU's is capital F Fundamentalist Baptist and would have nothing to do with these over-the-top charismatics. My dad has heard the prophetic Jones speak at least once; I recall dad driving down to Flint to hear him speak.

Here's part of a post I did back in 2005 on these modern-day prophets; I pick up after talking about a small "word of knowledge" that I had passed on while chaperoning at a Vineyard youth retreat-

That type of ad-hoc personal prophecy isn't as problematic as the geopolitical prophecy that goes on in the background of the charismatic world. [Michael] Spencer mentions Rick Joyner in his list of questionable folks; his Morningstar ministry has a small but loyal following in charismatic circles.

Other modern prophets in that circle like John Paul Jackson, Bobby Conner and others are part of a subculture of sorts in the charismatic world; they run in similar circles as the televangelists, but aren't televangelists per se. I made the metaphor that TBN's Paul Crouch is Johnny Carson and the prophets are the stand-up comics who come on and get free publicity. Some are pastors, like Joyner, while others are full-time prophets. The Elijah List is something of a prophetic clearing house; that's not to be confused with the Elijah House counseling ministry class that I've been taking as of late.

Even though I'll have occasional encounters with this prophet class (here's one about two prophets visiting Winter Haven and another where a retreat used some John Paul Jackson material), I'm not comfortable with them. I've seen too many friends place too much stock in their geopolitical pronouncements. My title of "Prophet-Worship" might be a bit over the top, but there is an unhealthy focus on the prophetic in many circles and an unhealthy level of respect for these modern-day prophets. From some of my church friends, I've heard talk about what "the prophets were saying" that seemed very discomforting in that the seemed to be ceding authority that belonged more with the local church or with one's own discernment.

That "prophet-worship" is my biggest fear when I look at Bickle's escatology.

I don't have a problem with Bickle adopting a post-trib rapture, whereas your standard-issue Left Behind-style premillennialist will be pre-trib. I still like the line from my old Vinyard pastor in Midland, Don Milton, who quipped that he was a pan-tribber; he'd wait to see how it panned out.

I don't have a problem with the theology of an increase in spiritual activity and spiritual manifestations as the end times approach; there are a number of passages that will point towards that.

What bothers me most is his theology, more in practice than theory, is buried in part IV, section G, that the church "...will be led by the apostolic ministry. God will restore the five–fold ministry (Ephesians 4:11–13; Revelation 18:20)."

Let's do a quick check of Ephesians 4:, I'm using NIV here-

¹¹It was he who gave some to be apostles, some to be prophets, some to be evangelists, and some to be pastors and teachers, ¹²to prepare God's people for works of service, so that the body of Christ may be built up ¹³until we all reach unity in the faith and in the knowledge of the Son of God and become mature, attaining to the whole measure of the fullness of Christ.

Here's my take on this from 2005-

Those last three offices in verse 11 (evangelists, pastors and teachers) aren't going to be too much of an issue for Joe Evangelical, but the idea of modern-day apostles and prophets may well be. Even among charismatics and Pentecostals, the idea of people acting in the gift of prophecy is accepted, but the idea that someone has the job of prophet is a bit of a stretch to some, myself included.

I've noticed an increasing trend in charismatic circles to place a bit too much trust in such modern-day prophets.

That is the biggest problem I see with Bickle's theology, but it is more one of praxis than of theology. I could wrap my mind around the idea of one of the guys or gals at church who had a special gifting for prophecy to have the title of "prophet," but even then, we would need to have discernment as to whether it was God or last night's burrito that was talking to the prophet.

That discernment seems to be sorely lacking in that Bickle-JP Jackson-Joyner universe. I've seen fans/followers of theirs take what "the prophets" are saying a bit too much at face value and without a lot of questioning.

That lack of discernment also can sometimes get coupled with spiritual cockiness, where the prophet and his posse see themselves as God's instrument to transform their city or state; we saw a "Transformation Florida" in the early 00s that was "all hat and no cattle" as they'd say in Texas, and a similar group of prophetphiles (that sounds a bit better than "prophet-worshiper") are working on a Transformation Michigan.

That will often lead to disillusionment when the transformation doesn't come, and can also put the overreaching believers at peril if they start taking on demonic strongholds without proper thought and backup. Far too many spiritual Pickett's Charges have happened from people thinking they were God's gift to their town and were ready to kick Satan's butt; unless you have God at your back, Satan can kick back even harder.

Such ministries have a tendency to split churches, as prophetphiles will want their pastor to get with the prophetic program and the pastor may discern differently; the prophetphiles can often become a fifth column in a church, dominating prayer meetings and spreading an alternative theology from what the church generally focuses on. It can also lead to a lack of discernment of doctrine, turning over their ability to question to their chosen shepherd.

Can there be modern-day prophecy? I'm enough of a Bapticostal to say yes.

Can there be modern-day prophets? In theory, yes, but the current crop seems to be a bit too full of themselves to be trusted.

That's my big worry with such theology. It may be OK in theory, but the five-fold-ministry types seem to produce flawed prophets and prophetphiles with an impaired spiritual immune system to fight off false doctrine.

Sideshow Ron and the Preacher

The Republican debate this evening was interesting. There was a bit of sci-finess to things with the CNN-YouTube coalition around the debate, like you were watching a movie set 30 years in the future showing media coverage of the day.

30 years ago, merely the idea of CNN would have been novel, a nationwide and global news channel broadcast via satellite. Fifteen years ago, the idea of a interactive video web site where average folks could post video clips for everyone to see would seem like something out of a sci-fi novel.

I'm new to the YouTube stuff, having discovered it as a guilt-free Napster the last month or so, catching stuff like modern praise music from Israel Houghton, Ron Kenoly or Salvador or old pop stuff from the 70s and 80s like Al Jarreau, Earth, Wind and Fire or Swing out Sister.

However, here's a great use of YouTube, to show the opening song that introduced the candidates. This is my first try at one of those embedded YouTube things.

Per CNN, here's the lyrics. He's credited as Chris Nandor, but you can't find the video using that, I searched for "Debate song" and found it.

The grand old party's looking for somebody who can lead, someone who is electable and adheres to our creed.

Some say the group is not diverse; they're white, they're men, but wait. The Dems have just one candidate, Republicans have eight.

Rudy's leading all the polls, but can he win the base? Mitt changed on abortion; history he can't erase.

Ron Paul would end the FDA and that is just a start. Fred has just begun to run, but sure does look the part.

Hunter tells us what to do in foreign policy debates. Huckabee's compassionate and lost a lot of weight.

Tancredo says let's build a fence across the whole Southwest. McCain is loved by many and hated by the rest.

We don't know who we're voting for; we don't know who will win. That's why we use YouTube to ask our questions of these men.

Time is short, we're voting soon, and I just thought I'd mention. If we don't reach consensus, then we'll decide at convention.

Our singing comic is dead on on that last part. I think this thing is heading to a brokered convention, for I don't see anyone commanding a 40% plurality of the delegates.

Thompson seemed a bit old and reflecting on decade-old votes. McCain was statesmanlike but past his freshness date a tad; he could be a good buy on the day-old bread rack but a hard sell in the primary. Eileen likes McCain as her second choice behind Huckabee, but she's not your typical red-meat conservative.

Romney and Rudy were bickering like two old classmates at a 25th reunion; neither looked all that good in the process. I'd love to have a follow-up question with Romney asking him if he accepted Pearl of Great Price or Doctrine and Covenants as well as the Bible.

Ron Paul actually started to grow on me tonight; like a fungus, possibly, but he seemed more of a politician and less Sideshow Ron.

Huckabee didn't handle the Thompson video dig on encouraging a tax increase, while Romney freely admitted his turnaround on abortion, admitting that he was wrong to be a pro-choicer back in the day. Joe, get your research team to get some better background on that pro-tax clip from the Thompson ad to explain why the tax increase was needed; IIRC, it was due to a court order to increase school funding.

On other issues, Huckabee seemed to be in command. He actually got the Uniform Code of Military Justice right this time; in a previous debate, he called the UCMJ the Uniform Code of Military Conduct... twice. He gave a solid response to the Bible question and gave an OK answer to "WWJD" about the death penalty, deflecting it with "Jesus was too smart to run for public office."

However, I thought he was close to his best on the answer to Romney's jab about college scholarships for illegal immigrant kids; it was given to anyone who spent their whole high school career in Arkansas and did well, regardless of their immigration status. That's not going to please the immigration hawks, but it will appeal to folks who want a more compassionate response to the issue.

Ron Paul is starting to show up on national poll radar and came across less as Sideshow Ron (as Bill Schneider cast him) and more as a viable alternative. He's getting a steady 5% in national polls, a place that Mike Huckabee was not that long ago. I don't see Paul winning any primaries, but he could easily break the 10% threshold in New Hampshire (he's doing 7 at present) and do surprisingly well in Iowa; he's polling at 5% but a lot of his backers may be hard to categorize as likely Republican voters.

Meanwhile, Huckabee is leading in the most recent Iowa poll, where Rasmussen has him leading Romney 28-25. We may have a five-way race, six if Paul begins to show up on radar.

However, the ultimate fight is to become the un-Rudy in time to keep Guiliani from winning too many 30% plurality winner-take-all wins and backing into the nomination. It make take a series of un-Rudies to keep him from getting the nomination, where Romney wins some states, Huckabee others, Thompson others, then settle it at the convention.

We live in intersting times.

Everybody Must Get Stony-brooked

Things aren't happy in Big Blue country; the basketball team is underperforming, allowing low D-I Stony Brook to actually give them a game last night, with UK winning 62-52. They're 4-1, but 4-1 on a Twinkie diet, with lowly Gardner-Webb coming in and providing the one in the loss column. North Carolina comes to town Saturday, and things might not be pretty; one of the Herald-Leader guys said to "leave the children at home."

My drive home last night was interesting after my FIN 540 class; when I hit Harrodsburg Road about 9:30PM, I normally have a car or two heading south towards the New Circle Road beltway.  Last night, it was rush hour. A clue came from the post-game show on the sports-talk channel; the Rupp Arena crowd had just let out and a good chunk of it was heading out of downtown on Broadway/Harrodsburg (it's Broadway close to downtown, then it morphs into Harrodsburg; Limestone/Nicholasville does the same morph).

That's interesting, being caught up in post-game traffic. I've not lived close to a major arena before where you get rush hours after a game.

One of the host alluded to my apartment complex, saying something to the effect of "Stony Brook... isn't that the apartment complex on Man o' War and Armstrong Mill?" No, that's Stoney Falls, but it does sound like either an apartment complex or a upscale subdivision.

38 Shopping Days Until Iowa

It's Zogby, so take it with multiple grains of salt, but they have all five leading GOP candidates beating Hillary. Everyone's has between a 3 to 5% lead, but the one person with a 5% lead is Huckabee. Obama cleans the floor with the Republicans (+5 to +7) and Edwards ranges from dead heats to squeaker wins versus the Republicans.

That seems to be a bit of an outlier or just something on the upper end of the margins of error, given that the polls have been leaning pro-Hillary as of late in prospective match-ups. I'd feel more confident if it was someone other than Zogby, who traditionally has been the king of the outliers.

With the most recent WaPo/ABC poll in Iowa giving Obama a 4% lead, there seems to be a pro-B.O. meme growing on the theme that Hillary can't deliver but Oprah's Chicago home-dog can.

Back to Huckabee. If he can consistently show that he polls a percent or two better than his rivals, might that lean the pragmatic conservatives into his camp who want to keep Hillary out of the White House?

Prounced "en-PEE-vee"

I've jokingly described the fight within the conservative side of the aisle as between the Values Voters and the Net Present Value Voters, using the latter to describe economic conservatives who's primary focus is lower taxes and smaller government.

For those of you who managed to not take a corporate finance class, NPV is the present value of a project's future cash flows less its initial investment. You do the project if you have a positive NPV and pass on it if you have a negative NPV. It's one of the topics I'll be going over tonight with my FIN 324 class; they're working on a quiz at present.

One of the things that effects NPV is the tax rate; the higher the tax rate, the lower the resulting cash flows, since Uncle Sam will get a larger cut of your profits. With higher taxes and lower cash flows, fewer projects will pass NPV muster, lowering business investment. Less business investment means slower growth and a more stagnant economy.

If maximizing growth (e.g. the Cudgel for Growth) is your game, the fiscal policy game is to cut taxes. That's historically been the Republican party's stock in trade for the last three decades since Ronald Reagan came to power in 1980. Robert Novak's famous quip from the NPV camp is that God put the Republican Party on earth to cut taxes.

Thus, anyone who doesn't buy that tax-cutting argument whole-heartedly is anathema, a "False Conservative." Novak, like the bad boy relieving himself on the other truck brand puts the Pee in NPV and sends a yellow stream at Mike Huckabee.

...Huckabee simply does not fit within normal boundaries of economic conservatism, such as when he criticized President Bush's veto of a Democratic expansion of the State Children's Health Insurance Program. Calling global warming a "moral issue" mandating "a biblical duty" to prevent climate change, he has endorsed a cap-and-trade system that is anathema to the free market. Huckabee clearly departs from the mainstream of the conservative movement in his confusion of "growth" with "greed."

Such ad hominem attacks are part of his intuitive response to criticism from the Club for Growth and the libertarian Cato Institute about his record as governor. On "Fox News Sunday" on Nov. 18, he called the "tactics" of the Club for Growth "some of the most despicable in politics today. It's why I love to call them the Club for Greed, because they won't tell you who gave their money." In fact, all contributors to the organization's political action committee (which produces campaign ads) are publicly revealed, as are most donors financing issue ads.

...

Nevertheless, he is getting remarkably warm reviews in the news media as the most humorous, entertaining and interesting GOP presidential hopeful. Contrary to descriptions by old associates, he is now called "jovial" or "good-natured." Any Republican who does not sound much like a Republican is bound to get friendly press, as Sen. John McCain did in 2000 (but not today, with his return to acting more like a conventional Republican).

An uncompromising foe of abortion can never enjoy full media backing. But Mike Huckabee is getting enough favorable buzz that, when combined with his evangelical base, it makes real conservatives shudder.

Conservatives can swallow a lack of social conservatism; check out Rudy's 30% showing in the early going. They can swallow a lack of interest in free trade, as many folks in the NPV camp supported Pat Buchanan over Bush pere in 1992. However, be just right of center rather than conservative on fiscal policy (and yes, I would classify Huckabee as right-of-center), and instead of paeans, you get Bad Boy pee-ons.

This will be an interesting primary election, as a candidate who's center-right on economics and conservative on social policy reaches out to a different set of swing voters than classic conservatives, who tend to be center-right on social policy and conservative on economics. It's an election the NPV camp doesn't want to lose, since a President Huckabee would represent a continuation of the Compassionate Conservative brand that can accept a bit more government and a bit more help for the little guy than the NPV wing would like.

If such a candidate can be seen to be a proven winner, then the NPV wing will be the disgruntled party in the conservative coalition, where they have no home in the Democratic Party, are on the losing end of a fight within the GOP and don't have a clear path to a 40% plurality working as a third party. They can't afford to lose another presidential primary, for they'll wind up being a voice crying in the wilderness for a couple of decades to come. They'd seemingly rather see a mediocre NPV conservative lose to Hillary and then have a good NPV conservative beat her in 2012 than to see Huckabee take over the GOP for another decade.

God may have put the modern GOP on the planet to cut taxes, but He put us on the planet to expand His Kingdom. That can involve doing things that don't minimize taxes or maximize GDP growth; we're here to see people "have life, and that they might have it more abundantly."

Maximizing the commonweal is what I'm after; cutting taxes can do that sometimes, but sometimes, larger government and somewhat higher taxes can be needed as well. I'd rather be "anathema to the free market" than anathema to God's Kingdom. They are, lest we on the right side of the aisle forget, two different things; frequently overlapping, but yet two different things.

Another Groningen Protocol

Here's an interesting story about a Dutch woman, Tanja Nijmeijer,  who's diary was found by the Columbian government; she'd been helping the FARC guerrillas in Columbia. The diaries noted that the FARC leaders were rather materialistic, not living up to their Marxist rhetoric, leaving Nijmeijer disillusioned.

Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos, meanwhile, was happy to use the case to counter "guerrilla chic" in Europe, where the FARC -- classified a terrorist group by both the United States and the European Union -- has a small but determined group of supporters who run pro-rebel Web sites.

That guerrilla chic has a long-running appeal among youth of the left in both the US and Europe, even before Che. Lefties of the Greatest Generation flocked to Spain to back the socialist-leaning Republicans against Franco's right-wing Nationalists; there was a large enough American left bloc helping that they formed their own Abraham Lincoln Brigade.

Two ladies of the left of the recent past have echoes of Nijmeijer. During the blog era, Palestinian sympathizer Rachel Corrie died blocking a Israeli bulldozer; back in the mid 90s, Lori Berenson was convicted of helping the  Túpac Amaru Marxist rebels in Peru (that's a different, Cuban-leaning group than the Maoist-inspired Shining Path) and is still imprisoned, despite an international cause celeb to get her released.

This significance of this passage of the Nijmeijer story may have not been noted by most readers-

Nijmeijer wrote her thesis on the FARC at the University of Groningen in her homeland, then traveled to Colombia in 2000 on a work-exchange program.

Peanut Gallery veterans might have caught it. Does the Groningen Protocol ring a bell?

Eduard Verhagen is clinical director of pediatrics at the University of Groningen. He is mainly known for his involvement in infant euthanasia in the Netherlands.

Euthanasia, while legal for adults, is illegal for children under the age of 12 in the Netherlands. Verhagen, who studied law and medicine, worked out a protocol with prosecutors and doctors in 2002 for infant euthanasia cases. This Groningen protocol requires that parents, doctors and social workers agree that further treatment is futile. After a waiting period of several days, during which the parents can think over the decision and say goodbye, the child is killed, for example with a drip of morphine and midazolam. The documentation of the case is subsequently turned over to the prosecutor's office. If this protocol is followed, prosecutors will refrain from pressing charges.

That's spelled Youthanasia. Three years ago almost to the day (early December), Hugh Hewitt was on the Groningen protocol like white on rice (his blog archives seem to be fubared), "ranting (in a good way) about the lack of media coverage"; others like yours truly and  Joe Carter were chiming in as well.

It's interesting that the school that produced one of the more brazen forms of medical utilitarianism also produced a leftist rebel in the news.

This is your brain. This is your brain placed in a secular leftist hotbed. Any questions?

 

Howard's End

Some good news out of France, where President Sarkozy seems to have successfully stared down a transit worker's strike.

High-speed TGV services from Paris are running as usual. In the capital, metro services were being restored, though few lines were back to 100% operation.

"The worst of the crisis is over," presidential aide Raymond Soubie told radio station Europe-1.

The historical pattern in France is (1) government proposes reforms (2) unions take to the streets and (3) government backs down from reforms. Sarkozy didn't play the traditional song-and-dance routing.

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Some less-good news out of Australia, where PM John Howard not only will get voted out of office as prime minister but even lost his MP seat.

With 70% of votes counted, Labor were on course to win the 76 seats needed to form a government. More than 20 constituencies from a total of 150 are still to produce a result, but Labor already has 72 seats compared with 48 for Mr Howard's Liberal-National coalition.

Labor leader Kevin Rudd will be the presumptive incoming prime minister. Howard had been in power for 11 years and was a bit to the right of the Australian public on Iraq and other issues; people often want to give the other guys a shot after a decade with one side.

Rudd is sounding the conciliatory tones that winners always seem to make, wanting to be "a leader for all [insert plural form of nationality]." We'll see if he governs that way, or is just giving the standard post-election reconciling with the losing side speech.

[Update 4PM-Rudd actually uttered my stock winner's line (italics added)

Mr Rudd said he would be "a prime minister for ‘all Australians’’. He said he would be a leader for indigenous Australians, migrants, town and country, farmers afflicted by drought and for men and women serving in uniform. "I will be prime minister for all Australians,’’ he said "And I make this solemn pledge for the nation I will always govern in the national interest. "

At least until the party activists get a hold of him.

 

Two out of Three ain't Bad

Maybe Lebanon can take a page from Jack Nicholson's president in Mars Attacks; after the visitors take out Congress, he notes that "I want the people to know that they still have two out of three branches of the government working for them, and that ain't bad."

Lebanese president Emile Lahoud's term off office expired at midnight Saturday (it's early Sunday already in Lebanon) and there has not been a replacement named, for the Lebanese opposition took a page out of Turkey's book and refused to provide a 2/3rds quorum to elect a new president. Lahoud's in the pro-Syrian camp and wants the military chief to take over for him.

Minor problem- the constitution has the presidential powers flowing to the prime minister in the absence of a president; the PM is the anti-Syrian camp's Fouad Siniora. If former president Lahoud has his way, he'll have essentially done a coup.

If that can be avoided, and the military lets the rule of law apply, they'll still have still have two out of three branches of the government working for them, and that ain't bad, especially when the third branch was in bed with the Assads. Pray that it be so.

A Little Wild Hog After the Turkey

An interesting news day. Let's start with the fun stuff; I just caught the tail-end of a doozy, where Arkansas managed to get past #1 LSU in Baton Rouge, 50-48 in 3OT. Book Darren McFadden into New York for the Heisman ceremony (he may not win it, but he should be in the top 3-5 that they bring in), with a 200 yard rushing day, 3 rushing TDs and a passing TD coming out of the "Wild Hog" single wing set with Mac-F at QB.

I'm not old enough to remember the single wing as a going offense, but a lot of the shotgun option sets (WV, Oregon when Dixon was healthy, Arkansas' Wild Hog) that are the current rage look a lot like the old single wing from pre-WWII.

It was before my time, but the 49ers introduced the shotgun as a running set in 1961, trading away an immobile Y.A. Tittle to have a young Billy Kilmer (he of the wounded duck passes for the 70s Redskins) run things. As I recall the story, San Francisco gave the league fits trying to defend this new beast, until they had to play Chicago and their owner-coach George Halas, who goes so far back, he had the record for longest fumble return, running back a Jim Thorpe drop in 1923.

Halas was so old, he noted that the new-fangled shotgun was nothing more than a modified single wing. He got out his old defensive playbooks and proceeded to shut out the 49ers in their meeting, 31-0. By 1962, the league had caught up and the 49er QBs were too hurt to run that offense, so the shotgun got shelved until Dallas brought it back in the early 70s as a passing-down set.

Now we have college programs bringing back that shotgun-single-wing set. I think Halas would have had his hands full dealing with McFadden or WV's Pat White. However, I'm not sure if a QB could survive NFL-level defenses for a full season running a Wild Hog set.

Talkin' Turkey

When I was running errands yesterday afternoon, one of the ESPN radio talkers (Mike Tirico, IIRC) was picturing guys working on their honey-do lists and the gals getting ready to cook dinner, which got a scathing bit of "that was sexist!" retort from his female co-host. Not in Casa de Byron; I'm the cook in the house.

I had the to-do list, but I also cooked my first turkey... with in-laws in da house... successfully. Not that there's a lot to do. I went with a turkey breast, and all you do is rinse it off, pat it down, apply some oil, stick the bad boy in a 325-degree oven and stick the probe thermometer in the bird. Wait 2.5 hours until the readout's showing 170 (shades of Alton Brown cooking geekdom), go Jack the Ripper on the the poor bird and serve.

It was a scaled-back menu, just stuffing (stove-top version), mashed potatoes for Eileen's dad, green beans (just out of the can, no fried onions and mushroom soup) and canned gravy, with a pair of store-bought pies on deck for desert.

One rite of passage down; hosting Thanksgiving for the first time. All my life, I've either been at my parents, my grandparents or my sisters; during our stay in Florida, we had one Thanksgiving with our home group leader's family and another at our church. This is the first time people came to my place for Thanksgiving.

Makes you feel grown-up. Yes, I'm 46, but there are times where I feel like I'm half that age, especially when you have holiday traditions where your parents or grandparents are the patriarchs of the clan. Today, I got to play the grown-up, cleverly disguised as a responsible adult.

Hut, Hut, Hike!

I was asked by Joe Carter to double-check the tax stats for Arkansas to see if the Cudgel for Growth's rap on Mike Huckabee makes sense. Unfortunately, it does to a large extent.

I used US Census Bureau data for state tax revenue for 1996 and 2006, and US Census estimates of state and federal population for 1996 and 2006 (that's a CSV file that you'll have to slap into Excel to make sense of it) to get the per capita data.

                                       

Per   Capita State Taxation	1996	2006	Increase	Yearly Rate
US	1,553.08	2,359.18	52%	4.27%
Arkansas	1,439.34	2,475.90	72%	5.57%
Percentage of US	93%	105%

Huckabee took office in 1996 and left office at the beginning of this year, so the 1996-2006 period maps his stay fairly well. Arkansas started his tenure with a tax burden 7% below average, and ended it 5% above average.

What about if you adjust for inflation?

                                       

Per   Capita Taxation
In 2006 Dollars	1996	2006	Increase	Yearly Rate
US	1,995.54	2,359.18	18%	1.69%
Arkansas	1,849.40	2,475.90	34%	2.96%

Well, we get things looking a bit better, but taxes still went up at a 3% clip during that decade in Arkansas, compared to a 1.7% clip nationwide.

That's not to say that I'm changing my mind on Huckabee; he's still my choice, since this merely quantifies the tax-raising meme. The challenge for the Huckabee team is to give a good reason for the tax increases.

Part of it was increasing the burden on state governments during the last decade, as many tasks got dumped onto the state level; that explains most of the increase.

Another part of that tax increase was beefing up an underfunded school system that prompted decades worth of bad humor at the state's expense like the classic Arkansas Reading Test. That's not going to sway the Cudgel for Growth folks, but it might play to swing primary voters who aren't out to slay Leviathan.
 

Now, for some good news for Huck fans. Let's see how he does versus the other ex-governor in the race, Mitt Romney. While we're at it, let's throw Bill Richardson's New Mexico into the mix to have all three presidential candidate governors in the mix and look at their 2002-2006 terms that they have in common.

                                                 

Per   Capita Taxation	2002	2006	Increase	Yearly Rate
US	1,857.49	2,359.18	27%	6.16%
Arkansas	1,912.66	2,475.90	29%	6.67%
Massachusetts	2,304.78	3,013.00	31%	6.93%
New Mexico	1,955.45	2,614.70	34%	7.53%

This is unadjusted for inflation. State taxation has climbed across the board, growing at a 6.16% nationwide. Arkansas was a bit ahead of the national average on tax growth, but behind MA and NM. If Huckabee's "Tax Hike Mike", then Romney is "Wallet Hit Mitt" and Richardson is "Bigger Tax Bill Bill."

In for a Penny, in for a Pound

That's how I started a reply to a Joe Carter e-mail of early today. I can confirm what Andy Jackson has posted earlier today; Joe's taking a leave of absence from his FRC gig to work for the Huckabee campaign.

I’ll be heading up their efforts on research and rapid response communications.

I have a simple standard in deciding what type of candidate to support. I call it my Reagan Test: “Are they as conservative as Ronald Reagan was when he first ran for the Presidency?” Huckabee passes that test. I think he’s a solid fiscal, social, and security conservative. I also think he is the only one that can beat Hillary Clinton. I don’t say all this because I support Huckabee; I support Huckabee because I believe this to be true.

I’m hoping to help convince others, so if you have any questions please feel free to contact me.

That takes courage; he went from writing a blog backing Fred Thompson to supporting Huck to working for Huck in about a month. He liked him all along, but he didn't think he stood a chance until recently.

I offered Joe any help that I could offer in his new post. I'm not sure how much that might be, but I haven't actively worked on a political campaign since 1976 when I did some lit-dropping for Don Riegle's initial Senate election. Yes, he was a rather liberal Democrat, but I was 14 and didn't know any better. My dad headed up the county Democratic party at the time, but my Riegle work was an effort independent of him.

It might be time to break that 30-year drought. I'm not planning on turning into a "Huckabee apologist," as Josh Clayborn dubbed Joe earlier today. For instance, I'm still up to calling Joe's most recent post "more 'So's your old man Romney' than a solid defense of Huckabee" in the comments over at In the Agora.

Huckabee seems to be the best choice in the Republican field and one of the most all-around appealing candidates in a while. Worth sticking your neck out a bit for.

You Say "Do Gooder" Like There's Something Wrong With That-Part II-No, He's Rick Warren and James Dobson's Love Child

OK, now let me commence to play Stone Cold Steve Austin to Jonah Goldberg's Goldberg and get out my can of whuppin' (sorry, I used up my edgy language quota for the week on the first post and on this next paragraph from Jonah) on his Mike Huckabee piece. He's well off base in this paragraph-

Indeed, Huckabee represents the latest attempt to make conservatism more popular by jettisoning the unpopular bits. Contrary to the conventional belief that Republicans need to drop their opposition to abortion, gay marriage and the like in order to be popular, Huckabee understands that the unpopular stuff is the economic libertarianism: free trade and smaller government. That's why we're seeing a rise in economic populism on the right coupled with a culturally conservative populism. Huckabee is the bastard child of Lou Dobbs and Pat Robertson.

Excuse me, Jonah, do you mind if we do a DNA check? Lou Dobbs is a populist, but he's a populist with a nativist streak; Ross Perot and Pat Buchanan is Dobbs' political parentage, getting Perot's centrist populism, Pitchfork Pat's nativism and both pappies' (Lou Has Two Daddies?) anti-free trade genes.

That type of anti-foreigner rhetoric isn't what Huckabee's up to. His "fair trade" rhetoric is more at looking after the foreign little guy, not the nativist looking after the domestic little guy; that's a fair-trade-coffee sipping PC streak, not a Freedom Fries nativist streak.

If we're going to assign paternity to Daddy #1, it's Rick Warren, not Lou Dobbs. The let's-save-Africa-from-AIDS Warren and the apolitical-invite-Obama-to-speak Warren. American evangelicals are missions oriented and are often more internationally minded than secular folks. You do have a paleocon faction in modern evangelical churches, but most evangelicals are looking to help the rest of the world and would lean their trade policies towards giving the little guys in Africa and Latin America a better break.

That's where's Huckabee is more likely to be than the paleocon lineage Jonah posited.

Who's your other daddy, Mike? Mr. Rudy's-my-man Rev-run Pat? NOT!

If we have to use a name that people who might link in from the Corner (if this got Jonah's attention) will recognize, let's go with James Dobson. Conservative first, Republican second. Give no quarter on the moral issues of the day, rather than sell your moral birthright out for a bowl of Homeland Security stew.

Warren isn't big on going to the mat on the hot-button theocon issues, but Dobson is. That will make Huckabee strong on social issues but caring on economics and foreign policy.

I like the mongrel child of Dobson and Warren better than the mutant spawn of Alan Greenspan and Bluto Blutarsky who writes at the Corner, thank you very much.

Part three to follow sometime before we grab the turkey and dressing.

You Say "Do Gooder" Like There's Something Wrong With That-Part I-An Evolving View of Poltical Economy

This Jonah Goldberg op-ed on Mike Huckabee yanked my chatty ring big time. By the way, if you want to know what a chatty ring is, check out this Chatty Cathy Geico ad.

I'm going to go on a bit of a discourse of my political history first. I'll get to the piece proper in a second post.

Of the three areas of political discourse, economics, national security/foreign policy and social issues, I'm the least conservative on economics, assuming that a conservative foreign policy is one that engages and tries to fight evil in the world rather than hunkering down behind a wall of moral relativism (on the left) or moral superiority (on the paleocon right). Of course, such a foreign policy will get the neocon label, for it's far from the status-quoian policy that classically gets defined as conservative.

In the early 1980's, I was a hawkish neoliberal; Joe Lieberman would have been up my alley in the mid-80s. I was on-board with Reagan's foreign policy and even his social policy. I was grudgingly pro-life at the time, preferring to answer to a God I had little understanding of about putting a woman through a half-year of a pregnancy she didn't want than killing an unborn child; the snuffed-out life seemed a bigger evil than six months or so of suffering, but it wasn't my A issue. 

However, I still had a liberal streak on economics, wanting some sort of Third Way mix of free markets and government help for the needy; that liberal streak was strong enough to keep me from voting for Reagan both times, voting for Carter in 1980 in my first adult presidential vote and for Mondale in 1984.

A combination of coming to the Lord in 1985 and starting my BBA work in 1986 tipped me into the Republican camp; a good look at what taxes and regulations do to slow down invention and economic growth gave me somewhat of an dynamist view of the economy. That, more than a firming up of my theocon side, got me voting on the Republican side of the aisle, starting with the elder Bush in 1988; there probably aren't too many folks who voted for Mondale and Bush, but I was one of them.

However, it didn't tip me all the way over to an economic libertarian. My dad taught at Midland High for a quarter-century, so the Leviathan that libertarians rail at was making direct deposits into Dad's Chemical Bank checking account twice a month. Also, getting teased a lot as a kid along with a generic Sunday Schooling from the Methodists gave me a appreciation for the little guy and minorities and saw the benefit of a government that tried to help the needy; the libertarian alternative looked a bit too much like something out of Dickens, the unbridled robber-baron capitalism of the 1800s that got Marx looking for alternatives.

Not that Marx was the answer; Mark's Ism of the 80s was "From each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs, and once the needs are met, every man for himself."

On one level, that creed can lean things to the left, for there are some needs, like health care for the uninsured, that currently fall through the cracks. There also are a lot of wants, like college education, that are over-subsidized. However, I'd be looking for a dynamic economy with little governmental intervention save for taxes needed to look after the commonweal.

That will put me at odds with both economic liberals, who don't trust free markets, and economic conservatives, who don't trust government. Both have their place in a good society and both have their limitations in a good society.

Thus, there are times where government action is justified, far more than a lot of conservatives would like to admit. This is the Goldberg paragraph that nearly yanked the chatty ring out of its socket-

What's troubling about The Man From Hope 2.0 is what he represents. Huckabee represents compassionate conservatism on steroids. A devout social conservative on issues such as abortion, school prayer, homosexuality and evolution, Huckabee is a populist on economics, a fad-follower on the environment and an all-around do-gooder who believes that the biblical obligation to do "good works" extends to using government -- and your tax dollars -- to bring us closer to the Kingdom of Heaven on Earth.

An "all-around do-gooder?" That's a bad thing? It is to a fan of laissez-fair, which is French for "sit on your ass and do nothing."

Sorry, but I want Washington and Frankfort to get off its butt from time to time. Not as much as liberals like, but I want them doing good where there is good to be done.

Jonah... as Cathy says at the end of the ad-"Pull that string one more time, I dare ya."

Still Mega

I was doing some snooping around this Hartford Institute megachurch research web site and seeing what churches in my new neck of the woods qualified.

Immanuel Baptist, the church my Victory Baptist was a church plant from 15 year ago, cracked the 2000 barrier, as did Bene's favorite Lexington church, Porter Memorial Baptist.

"It says they are affiliated with the Southern Baptist Convention. Does that mean the Kentucky SBC is an overseer?" If so, they now have the fox guarding the hen house, since Porter pastor Bill Henard got elected head of the Kentucky Baptist Convention. Someone should let the Hartford Institute know that Porter is Southern Baptist; they have Immanuel as SBC but have a generic BAPT for Porter.

Southland Christian is the biggest one in town, with a listed attendance of over 7000; Eileen went to an Amy Grant book-reading/mini-concert earlier this fall there. Quite a few people used to go their as well, as one of our friends from our apartment complex went their before settling in at a good Methodist church and quite a few Victory Baptist folks gave Southland a try before getting rooted at Victory.

An interesting one on the rise is Quest Community Church. Their facility faces the New Circle Road expressway and they use that to good effect, sponsoring a big Questapalooza featuring former DC Talk frontman Toby Mac this fall; DC Talk is on hiatus officially, but seven years is a long hiatus.

"They're on Hiatus?"

"Ask your doctor if Hiatus is right for you. Possible side affects of Hiatus include increasing distance from former friends, increased ego and delusions of grandeur."

Quest showed up at #43 on Outreach magazine's fast-growing churches list, getting a nice blurb in the Herald Leader out of it. That fast growth's no surprise when you read their history, Pete being pastor Pete Hise.

Pete attended a conference at Willow Creek Community Church in 1996, where God instilled a vision of a church designed for people who don't like church. Beginning in March 1997, a Saturday night service called Quest began at First Alliance. As it grew over the next two years, it became apparent that God was creating a new separate church. In January, 1999, First Alliance Church commissioned 80 people to come plant a new church with the mission of "transforming unconvinced people into wholehearted followers of Jesus."

Ah, yes, Willow Creek, the Mecca of seeker-friendly church growth. In this case the Hybels Highball was just the cocktail, but you do need the right people to pull such growth off. You don't normally associate the Christian and Missionary Alliance as a happening church, but these guys at Quest seems to have a flair for reaching unchurched youth.

I was at the biggest church in the state last month when I took in Sullivan U's graduation ceremony at Southeast Christian in Louisville, lovingly called "Six Flags over Jesus" by one of my colleagues. An 8000 seat sanctuary and 18,000 members. That's big.

 

Mega no More

There are a couple of things out of place in this AP piece on Earl Paulk. The first is that he's listed as being "the leader of a suburban Atlanta megachurch." He was the pastor of a megachurch, but not anymore.

For one, his nephew D.E. has been the lead pastor since last year, after a sex scandal had caused him to push himself aside. Now, the news is that D.E. is actually his son; Earl had been having an affair with his sister in law in the 70s.

Also, the classic definition of a megachurch is a "congregation with a sustained average weekly attendance of 2000 persons or more in its worship services." However, the AP piece says that the church falls short of that-   

For years the church was at the forefront of many social movements — admitting black members in the 1960s, ordaining women and opening its doors to gays.

At its peak in the early 1990s, it claimed about 10,000 members and 24 pastors and was a media powerhouse. By soliciting tithes of 10 percent from each member's income, the church was able to build a Bible college, two schools, a worldwide TV ministry and a $12 million sanctuary the size of a fortress.

Today, though, membership is down to about 1,500, the church has 18 pastors, most of them volunteers, and the Bible college and TV ministry have shuttered — a downturn blamed largely on complaints about the alleged sexual transgressions of the elder Paulks.

1500<2000. That reminds me of the story of Carpenter's Home Church in Lakeland. Here's an except from a 2003 post on megachurches-

In these big churches. as the pastor goes, so goes the church. One megachurch here in the area, Carpenter's Home Church in Lakeland, wound up coming on tough times after the pastor's son scammed the members in an investment scheme; they wound up selling their auditorium recently to a Tampa megachurch, the Church Without Walls, after seeing attendance drop by 80%.

Even the new owner has their little scandal; since I wrote that, the co-pastors of the CWW, Randy and Paula White, divorced. Paula's become one of the hot commodities on the Word-of-Faith circuit and there may well have been too much ego for one household; it was likely hard on Randy to be second banana in his own house.

Back to Paulk. He might not have been able to control his crotch, but Paulk at least was well ahead of the curve on civil rights, being integrated in the 60s when such stuff wasn't done by white pastors in Georgia.

I've yet to see anything to confirm the gay-friendly part that the AP piece cites; he was fairly old-school on most theological points, albeit from a post-millennial Pentecostal vantage point. Bene has him down as a Dominionist, as does the folks at Apologetics Index. That post-millennial theology will lend itself to some sort of idea of the Church running things down the line, which will be used against it by premillennialist critics.

How many you had a Goodbye, Earl come to mind while reading this one?

Big Easy Island Warriors

Here's an interesting dilemma that the college football folks are in; Hawaii may back into a BSC bid if they make the top 14, not the top 12 that people generally site. Here's a rundown of the BSC rules.

Discussion of Hawaii's BCS chances generally flow around the mid-major rule-

3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:  
A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

Currently, Hawaii is 15th in the BCS and all the projected conference champs are ahead of it in the rankings. UConn (currently #20) could change that if they beat West Virginia, but the other conference leaders are all in the top 14.

However, one of the rules that people forget could come into play; only two teams per conference can get a BCS bid. Here's the current BCS ratings and my projections of who'll be playing in what bowl. For sake of argument, we'll have the favored teams win out, as West Virginia gets the Big East tile and LSU, Kansas and VT win their conference title games.

BCS Ranking	School	Projected Bowl
1	LSU	Title Game
2	Kansas	Title Game
3	West Virginia	Fiesta as Replacement choice
4	Missouri	Orange as at large
5	Ohio State	Rose
6	Arizona State	Rose
7	Georgia	Sugar as Replacement choice
8	Virginia Tech	Orange
9	Oregon	(3rd Pac 10)-Holiday Bowl
10	Oklahoma	(3rd Big 12)-Cotton Bowl
11	USC	Fiesta as at large
12	Florida	(3rd SEC)-Citrus (a.k.a. Cap1) Bowl
13	Texas	(4th Big 12)-Sun Bowl
14	Boston College	Sugar as at Large
15	Hawaii
16	Virginia
17	Illinois

Firstly, the top two teams automatically get to go to the championship game. Next, the Orange Bowl gets the ACC champ, the Sugar gets the SEC champ, the Fiesta gets the Big 12 champ and, as traditional since the 40s, the Rose gets the Big 10 and Pac 10 champs.

However, the Sugar and Fiesta will have been raided by the championship game. The bowl that got the #1 team raided gets first pick of replacements; the Sugar will be likely to keep an SEC tie-in and pick Georgia. Tennessee might be the conference runner-up if they can beat UK up here in Lexington Saturday for the SEC East title, but a 9-4 Vol team would likely be outside of the top 14; they're currently 18th and would require a win over LSU to crack the top 14.

The Sugar could ruffle some Bulldog feathers by picking Florida instead of Georgia; in this crazy year where the leading teams have no clear Heisman candidates, Tim Tebow might back into the trophy with his stat-sheet-stuffing season. The Gators would make more compelling TV than Georgia.

Next, the Fiesta would get second pick, replacing Kansas. I don't know how strong the Fiesta-Big 12 tie is, but if I were picking for the Fiesta, I'd snag West Virgina and their high-powered offense as my first pick rather than Missouri or Oklahoma. That would make for better TV than Missouri.

Then, the three bowls with at-large slots will pick. This year, it goes Orange, Fiesta and Sugar. The Orange would likely take Missouri. They're currently #4 but could slide to #6 after losing to Kansas, but they would be a stronger pick than the alternatives on the board; plus, the Orange used to have a Big 8 tie in and this would bring back an old Big 8 team. Don't be surprised if they opt for USC instead, however.

The Fiesta gets the next pick. #9 Oregon is the highest team on the board, but with lame Duck QB Dennis Dixon out with a blown ACL, #11 USC looks to be a better pick. You get the Trojan mythos, good traveling fans from just down the road in LA and a more compelling matchup than WV-Oregon.

At this point, Oregon, Oklahoma, Florida and Texas are off limits, since their conferences have already gotten their two-team quota. It then falls to #14 Boston College to fill the Sugar Bowl spot. They're the only choice, since bowls can only choose from the top 14.

Big question... will BC still be #14 if they lose to Virginia Tech in the ACC title game?

If not, the boys from the islands are sitting at #15 and likely to move up a spot, especially when they dispatch the Smurf Turfers from #19 Boise State and get a boost in the computer rankings. Then, Hawaii would be #14 and the only game in town for the Sugar Bowl.

Otherwise, bring on Sulik's suggestion "Texas Tech v. Hawai'i: a.k.a. the Paul Westhead Bowl." First one to 100 wins, kicking the extra points left-footed in honor of Hank Gathers.

Edifier du Jour-1 John 1:1-4(NIV)

¹That which was from the beginning, which we have heard, which we have seen with our eyes, which we have looked at and our hands have touched—this we proclaim concerning the Word of life. ²The life appeared; we have seen it and testify to it, and we proclaim to you the eternal life, which was with the Father and has appeared to us. ³We proclaim to you what we have seen and heard, so that you also may have fellowship with us. And our fellowship is with the Father and with his Son, Jesus Christ. ⁴We write this to make our joy complete.

This epistle doesn't outright state the author, but it's attributed to gospel-writer John, who also penned Revelation in his old age. Even though this is generally dated around 90 AD, that would be feasible; if John were in his 20s where Jesus had his ministry around 30 AD, he's be 80 at the time this letter is dated to. Very old for a low-tech, little-medicine era, but doable, especially when John was known to be very old when he wrote Revelation.

Thus, the author may well not be doing any hyperbole when he talks about seeing and touching Jesus.

"We can't say the same today, though," I hear someone from the back of the Peanut Gallery say. Sorry, but yes, we can.

That Word of Life is still alive and kicking. Even if Jesus isn't with us in person, His Church still is with us. There are various ways of talking about this; a traditional take is that the Church is the Body of Christ. That's classic Catholic and Orthodox doctrine; Protestants will use the phrase "body of Christ" in a looser, less literal sense.

Another way it can be expressed is as the Kingdom of God operating in the present day; that view was popularized by Vineyard founder John Wimber, which came to mind as Andy Jackson noted the tenth anniversary of Wimber's death last week-

The main aspect of John Wimber that impressed me most was his integration and implementation of the Kingdom theology of George Elton Ladd.  In one sense, we can say he popularized the dynamic nature of the Kingdom of God.  John’s passion was not signs and wonders, it was the present experience and inbreaking of God’s powerful rule.

Whether we call it the Body of Christ or the Kingdom of God, it's God interacting with the world in a real and tangible way. That happens in the 21st century as well as the 1st. That joy that John writes about is still available today, if one can see and feel that Word of Life acting in our lives today.

Winner-Take-Most

One thing that doesn't get discussed is how delegate selection for the presidential conventions is handled in various states. The general rule of thumb is that states get 10 delegates plus three delegates per member of the House of Representatives, plus bonus delegates for voting Republican at various levels.

In most states, the state-wide delegates are allocated on a winner-take-all basis to the winner of the state primary, while the three congressional-seat delegates are allocated on a winner-take-all-basis to the winner of the vote in that district. Of early voting states, Florida, Michigan and California use that rule.

That's bad news for low-percentage candidates, since they'll have to win at least a district in order to get delegates. There is hope for a second or third place candidate to pick up some seats at the district level, for support for the leader may be focused on certain areas of the state. However, candidates that are back in the pack will be hard pressed to come away with any delegates.

Few states use proportional representation. New Hampshire does, with a 10% threshold. From a delegate standpoint, a New Hampshire win isn't a big deal, since you'll get a few more delegates than the #2 guy; breaking 10% is the first goal, which is within reach of Ron Paul, where he might get his only delegates.

Iowa is even weirder. The presidential ballot is what people will follow, but the caucuses merely electing delegates to a county convention, who will then elect delegates to the state convention, who then elect delegates to the national convention. Thus, the votes cast in January might not translate into delegates this summer.

The bad news from a conservative standpoint is that the person who gets a plurality gets the delegates; if, for instance, Rudy wins California and two-thirds of the districts with a 30% plurality, he'll have about 75% of the delegates. Thus, a conservative favorite-son needs to develop in the states with winner-take-all formats.

Monday Nusings

Interesting news out of a WaPo/ABC poll: B.O. has nudged ahead of Hillary in Iowa. He'd been close behind her in Iowa for so long, you'd think he was drafting her.

________________

Here's a You Tube of Juan Carlos' dressing down of Caesar Chavez. He asks the question most of us would like to ask-"¿Por que no te callas?" That's a good question, since populist tyrants have a tendency to be long-winded.

The king of Spain's recent undiplomatic outburst at the Venezuelan president has become a ringtone hit across Spain. An estimated 500,000 people have downloaded the insult featuring the words "Why don't you shut up?", generating a reported 1.5m euros ($2m).
...
Branded mugs, t-shirts and websites featuring the row are also profitable.

A lot of folks would like to brand Chavez's mug, but it would only encourage him.

_____________

A sad day up in Ann Arbor, as Lloyd Carr retired as football coach, effective after the UofM bowl game.

Carr had a 121-40 record for a .752 winning percentage, seventh among active coaches behind Florida State's Bobby Bowden and ahead of South Carolina's Steve Spurrier.

He is one of eight coaches in Big Ten history with at least five championships and he never finished lower than third in the conference.

Michigan has lost its last four bowl games, including three Rose Bowls, the longest postseason skid since [Bo] Schembechler dropped seven straight in the 1970s.

It's that last factoid, along with a four game losing streak to OSU, that had sapped a lot of Carr's strength. There's an interesting symmetry with Carr and John Cooper, who did a solid job at OSU, but struggled against Michigan.

The early rumor has LSU coach and former Bo assistant Les Miles as the front runner. That would be a good catch if it can come to pass. Hopefully Miles can weave his way through this mess and not have it cost the Tigers a title.

I'm fearful that Michigan may replace a good but not great coach with a mediocre one, much like happened down here in Lexington, where they ran off a good-but-underperforming (by UK standards) Tubby Smith with a underwhelming Billy Gillespie. There are a lot of underwhelming names on the long list below Miles.

_____________

Definition of "Homer"- voting for Magglio Ordonez over A-Rod.

Rodriguez had 28 first-place votes and 382 points in balloting by the Baseball Writers' Association of America. Ordonez had two firsts and 258 points, and was followed by the Angels' Vladimir Guerrero (203) and Boston's David Ortiz (177).

The only two first-place votes that didn't go to Rodriguez were from Tom Gage of The Detroit News and Jim Hawkins of The Oakland Press in Pontiac, Mich.

This is not easy to say as a Tiger fan, but Rodriguez had a monster year in a hyper-tough spot; at least in the regular season (and it is a regular-season award), he delivered the goods big time. There are times where a good-but-not-great Yankee will get the award while small-market players with better seasons get the shaft, but this isn't one of them.

Ordonez had a year that deserved MVP consideration, and would have won it in most years, but when a Yankee leads the league in homers, RBIs and runs scored, it ain't gonna happen.

Edifier du Jour-1 John 1:8-10(NIV)

⁵This is the message we have heard from him and declare to you: God is light; in him there is no darkness at all. ⁶If we claim to have fellowship with him yet walk in the darkness, we lie and do not live by the truth. ⁷But if we walk in the light, as he is in the light, we have fellowship with one another, and the blood of Jesus, his Son, purifies us from all sin.

⁸If we claim to be without sin, we deceive ourselves and the truth is not in us. ⁹If we confess our sins, he is faithful and just and will forgive us our sins and purify us from all unrighteousness. ¹⁰If we claim we have not sinned, we make him out to be a liar and his word has no place in our lives.

This in an interesting passage that needs both paragraphs to get the full context. We have folks who would like to focus on the first paragraph and give both barrels to people who still have some sinful habits while being a professing Christian. It's hard to try to follow Christ yet still be walking "in the darkness."

On the flip side of that, the second verse strongly notes that not only were we sinners, but that we still are sinners. There are some corners of Christendom that doesn't agree with that, that believers can fully lick sin with the Holy Spirit's help, but I've yet to see such a totally sanctified critter in the flesh.

However, we're supposed to walk in Jesus' light. That doesn't mean that we'll stumble into some moral back alleys, but that's supposed to be the exception to the rule. A passage from a piece on a group witnessing to NASCAR crowds from Saturday's Herald-Leader came to mind.

Before their arrival, the group's newsletter offered some commandments:

"Always be on your best behavior while on speedway property."

"If you have not yet overcome habits such as smoking or chewing, please refrain from those activities."

There are a lot of bad habits that are hard to break. Overeating is mine, tobacco was a problem with some of the ministry teams and homosexual issues are another tough nut. The old saw, "hate the sin, love the sinner" is the classic approach, but there quite a few sinners who don't want to get rid of their vices or feel that hating the sin results in hating them.

Nonetheless, the church's job is to guide people to be in the light. Unfortunately, we too often put up shades around certain areas of our lives, whether it be around materialism or sexuality or gluttony (the big vice this Thanksgiving week) or any other area than that great disinfectant needs to be applied to.

Tiger, Tiger

This is one of the weirdest college football seasons on record. In the recent past, it was the Nebraska-Colorado game on Black Friday that would determine the Big 12 north champ, being a decent methadone for losing the Nebraska-Oklahoma Big 8 season-ender via expansion. If you told us in August that Missouri-Kansas would be the game of the year, and not just the week, we'd want to get the name of your supplier, for that's some potent weed you were knocking down.

However, we've got #2 and undefeated Kansas going up against 10-1 and #3 Mizzou on Friday. If the winner of that game can get past the Southern division champ, they have their ticket punched for the national title game. If Missouri wins the Big 12, there is an excellent chance that the Tigers will win the national title. It could be the Missouri Tigers or the LSU Tigers, but things will look good for feline mascots.

#5 Ohio State is even still in the mix. A Oklahoma or Texas win in the Big 12 final will take out both Missouri and Kansas from consideration, although a 12-1 Kansas might have a case for a slot in the final.

#1 LSU still has to get past a dangerous Arkansas team with Darren McFadden making one last bid for Heisman consideration and the SEC title game against either Tennessee or Georgia, so the guys from Baton Rouge might think twice before planning to head down to NOLA for the title game. Top 5 teams have been beat by unranked foes 11 times, from Appy State to Texas Tech's win over Oklahoma yesterday; the Hogs would be happy to make that an even dozen this weekend.

#4 West Virgina gets both UConn and Pitt coming to Morgantown, neither of which are pushovers, especially when the Huskies can pull of one of the great out-of-nowhere years in college football history with a win. A UConn-Hawaii Orange Bowl? That's one that would have required multiple bong hits to predict this summer.

One of the teams ahead of OSU has to lose in the Kansas City Rumble Friday. If three of them do, OSU will likely be skipping the Rose Bowl.

Edifier du Jour-Psalm 106:1-2(NIV)

¹ Praise the LORD.
       Give thanks to the LORD, for he is good;
       his love endures forever.
² Who can proclaim the mighty acts of the LORD
       or fully declare his praise?

That was the sermon passage at church this morning. The pulpit Bible at Victory Baptist is ESV, which has the tail end of verse 1 as "his steadfast love endures forever." However, I like the NIV take, for it brings up a good earwig of Forever, when it doesn't beg a competing earwig of Israel Houghton's Lord, You are Good going King James with "his mercy endureth for ever."

We should have fried chicken rather than turkey and ham for Thanksgiving; that would remind us that God is finger-lickin' good. He truly is good all the time, even though we don't always appreciate it through the rough stretches.

We had our church Thanksgiving dinner this evening, borrowing the neighborhood elementary school cafeteria, since we don't have a big Fellowship Hall that will hold 250 people. Down in Lakeland, we'd have a Thanksgiving post-church potluck on the grounds (they kept up with that tradition this afternoon per their web site), but you can get away with that in central Florida in mid November, but not in central Kentucky, where it only got up into the mid 50s today.

However, I've got a lot to be thankful for this Thanksgiving, more so than last year. Last year, I was unemployed after going 0-for-a-dozen high school and junior high teaching interviews in Florida. This year, we're settling into Lexington, and Eileen was one of the folks giving public thanks this evening, especially for a very welcoming church family that adopted us quickly.

Now, I've got a backlog of papers and exams to grade from a busy college teaching slate and a couple of course web sites to set up for a pair of hybrid Executive MBA classes for Winter term that are 2/3rds on-line and 1/3 in classroom. I've got a week off from classes, so I should be able to clear off the backlog, get a few days ahead on prepping for this term's courses and get my EMBA classes rough-drafted during the week off.

To top it off, Eileen is settling in on a nice job working for the local Blue Cross affiliate; she even got a raise last week. We even have her folks coming here for Thanksgiving. It will be the first time I've ever been the host for Thanksgiving dinner; they'll be staying at a nearby hotel, but we'll be doing the cooking.

Other than Eileen's car being in the shop for a week and a half, confounding the mechanics, things are good.

 

Garcia, Rodriguez, Wilson and Martinez

That could well be an LA law firm. What is it? They're the most popular US surnames lists, spots 8 through 11.

You could easily be scorfing down some Cherry Garcia ice cream while reading about Pudge Rodriguez winning yet another Gold Glove while pontificating on Owen Wilson's emotional troubles and about Mel Martinez's leaving the RNC. Or, we could skip the wedding crasher and talk about Wilsonian foreign policy.

We may well see the day where historians will critique Rodriguezian foreign policy as an neo-neo-Wilsonian or neo-Bushian affair. Peru has a President Garcia, might the US have one in the 2040s?

Friday Musings

It's been a squirrelly term; I hope to get back to more regular blogging now that things have started to calm down; I actually get Thanksgiving week off from teaching, going on break after I do a make-up for my Monday night class tomorrow morning, just in time to get home and catch the Michigan-Ohio State game.

The OSU loss last week means it's only for the Rose Bowl, which is what a Michigan-OSU game is supposed to be about.

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I hadn't caught much of Oregon this year so far, but started to watch last night's Oregon-Arizona game. Oregon was running the shotgun-option offense that Vince Young popularized at Texas, and Dennis Dixon was doing a great Young imitation until he blew a knee making a cut in the backfield; no contact, just a torn ACL.

They brought in their backup, Ryan Leaf's kid brother Brady, who seems to be a decent QB but doesn't have Dixon's mobility; he seemed a Duck out of water. They wound up losing to Arizona and dropping out of national title contention. For now, it looks like LSU and the Big 12 champ have the inside track at the national title game.

Odd thought, if LSU loses somewhere down the line and Oklahoma beats Kansas in the Big 12 final, could we get a Oklahoma-Kansas rematch for the title game. Oklahoma would be #1 and Kansas' only loss would be to the top team in the country. If not Kansas, who? West Virginia? Ohio State? Arizona State?

Last year, Florida was the consensus non-Michigan. There doesn't appear to be a consensus un-Kansas in that scenario

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Interesting little shenanigans in Iowa, where someone was doing some anti-Mormon push-polling; push polls are negative advertising in the guise of a poll ("Would you be more inclined to vote against Gov. Smith if you knew he beat his wife?"). It could be an anti-Romney third party, one of his foes, or even a Romney backer wanting to create some pro-Romney backlash.

Wee Hour Musings

It appears that, like I joked a few years ago, Mitt Romney really was into LDS in the 60s, spending 1968 as a Mormon missionary in France. IIRC, France was going through almost as much upheaval as the US was, having a major student protest movement that forced new elections. That will make moderates into conservatives.

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I can only catch the scoreboard from Kentucky, but the Pistons had an interesting win; with Billups and McDyess dinged up and watching from the sidelines, they managed to come back from 15 down after the first quarter and beat Golden State. Maxiell had 14 and 14 starting for McDyess, while Sheed, Rip and Tayshaun each chipped in 22.

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Ricky "I did inhale" Williams is getting back into the NFL after a year-and-a-half suspension for substance abuse. With an 0-9 Miami club who's throwing their rookie QB to the wolves. Have fun, ganja-mon.

Charity Begins at Home

Over at Connexions, I've been part of a conversation on comparative giving to the poor between Muslims and Christians, bouncing off of a Richard Hall post on a speech from "Saif Ahmad, CEO of the charity Muslim Aid."

In theory, a good Muslim is supposed to give 2.5% of their wealth yearly to the poor. In theory, a good Christian is supposed to give 10% of their income to the church.

In practice, the average Christian gives about 2.5% of their income to the church. 2.58% was the figure for 2005 in that Empty Tomb.com study. Of that 2.58%, 2.2% was spent internally by the church, leaving 0.38% for "Benevolences." I think that includes both mission donations and donations to the needy.

At that pace, your average Muslim would only have to meet about a fifth of their goal to trump the average Christian.

That's not that far off from my church. Of our church's $675K budget for 2008, $69K is slated to be spent on various mission efforts. However, the vast majority of the money is spend on evangelism and only $5000 is spent on the needy; there is a $3000 benevolence fund and a $2000 donation to the Hope Center, a Lexington homeless shelter.

We're spending $8500 on "Life Groups Literature and Periodicals," Life Groups being Victory Baptist's rechristening of Sunday School classes. That means we're probably spending more on Lifeway than we're spending on the poor; not all of the Sunday School lit comes from Lifeway (the Southern Baptist's publishing arm), but a majority of it.

That's not to say that the church isn't active and that members might not cut checks to the Hope Center and other poverty-fighting charities. They'll definitely be down their helping on a regular basis, donating their time; the majority of our Sunday School class Life Group was down at the Hope Center last Saturday helping serve lunch.

A year ago, I did some work for the Hope Center's counterpart in Midland, the Open Door, helping get Quickbooks up and running in time to get out their yearly donation statements. One of the things my late friend Don Cormier (a board member with the Open Door and acting accountant as of Jan 2006) mentioned at the time was that the mainline churches gave most of the money and the evangelical churches gave most of the volunteers.

I'm not sure what should be replaced on the budget of what extra money for the poor would look like, but it seems like a well-off suburban church can afford more than 1% for helping the poor. Might some of the well-funded youth programs or children's programs or women's program or other programs get shorted a little in order to help some of our local needy a bit more?

Part of it might be the programmatic nature of a lot of modern church-doing; we buy stuff for various classes, we do stuff that requires money. That's going to keep a bit of money in the church rather than giving it away.

Part of it might be a conservative evangelical distaste for the Social Gospel; spending money on poverty-fighting is money that can be spent on outreach and evangelism. It can also get spent on getting better coffee and donuts the lobby or better treats at VBS, or hot dogs before the new evening service at the Lexington Vineyard, things that are nice but might not be the highest and best use of Kingdom funds.

"Charity begins at home," the old saying goes. However, it shouldn't end there. Many churches seem to forget that, padding their internal budgets when the money might well be better used elsewhere.

Wednesday Musings

This might be Fred Thompson's last gasp; Right to Life endorsed him for the GOP nomination. They have a history of rewarding a good voting record even if a foe might be more pro-life than the veteran; I remember a moderate Republican state rep who made all the right votes yet was squishy on abortion on balance get a RtL nod over a staunchly pro-life primary opponent in a state senate race.

Thompson has a decent track record; even if Huckabee would be more reliable on those issues, they're going with the vet.

___________________

Chuck Norris doesn't hold fund-raisers, he merely looks at donors and they cough it up for Huck.

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The archive of Peals Before Swine doesn't go back this far, but there was a story arc last fall where one of the crocodiles was running for mayor. When a reporter asked him what his solution to illegal immigration was, his reply was "Eat da slow ones."

Maybe Croc should run for Dade County sheriff. It may not work for immigration, but it seems to work for fighting crime.  The poor guy didn't deserve to die for breaking into cars, but there's more than a bit of "instant karma" poetic justice there, to borrow from John Lennon.

"There's Uncle Fred, he's a lookin' kinda dead at the junction."

We're at an interesting juncture in the GOP race. Fred Thompson's status as The Conservative Alternative^® seems to have died down. I was reminded of the opening theme of Petticoat Junction, which ended with "... and there's Uncle Joe, he's a moving kinda slow at the junction."

Right now, Uncle Fred is looking kinda dead. He's trailing Ron Paul in New Hampshire and is struggling to break double digits in Iowa.

One interesting non-news item is a false alarm of a James Dobson endorsement of Mike Huckabee. At this point, a Dobson endorsement might actually be the kiss of death as Huckabee looks to be more than a theocon champion. The MSM, who has been marketing him as of late as a fresh face who isn't afraid to face down economic conservatives, would be back to being typecast as a merely a pro-creationism, anti-abortion, anti-same-sex-marriage candidate.

Not that he isn't those, but he'll need to be more than that to get the nomination.