I'm Bidding One.... No-Trump

Politically, Donald Trump is an amoral Ross Perot, a self-financing businessman who's a skeptic on free trade. That's not going to sell well in a Republican primary.

Trump's only realistic shot at the White House would be to run as an independent, for I don't see him getting past the 17% he's getting in early GOP polls. He has played with running as a centrist independent in the past and would have an outside shot of patching together a Perot-like coalition of centrists equally uneasy with Obama and the Tea Party.

Within the GOP, he would have next to no support among religious conservatives, which would mean patching together a moderate-libertarian coalition. One way to appeal to the lesser angels of the center-right Perotgi with an ethnocentric streak is to play the "birther" card.

I have a certificate of live birth from Saginaw County, Michigan that works with Social Security and the driver's licence offices of four states to date to prove my identity and US citizenship from day one; President Obama, born a day before I was, also has one of those from Hawaii. There isn't anything there, but demagogues on the center-right love to play up the idea that he has a certificate of live birth rather than something titled a "birth certificate." Trump is one of those demagogues.

Right now, Trump isn't talking policy much, but is getting a lot of free media for playing up the birther issue. He might well be "Obama's worst nightmare" in that he'll make the rest of the field look moderate in tone and less like bigoted yahoos.

Comments

[Anne Wolfe]

I remember when I was a kid I worked hard and consciously at the skill of lying to myself. In order to promote a fallacy, I first had to convince myself either it was true, or it might be true. The older I got, the harder that practice became, though possibly I have not outgrown it, though I probably am likely to work at it less consciously.
I imagine those who promote the idea that Obama has no American birth certificate are fairly skilled in that art, and can do it to themselves in some quite specific ways, using some interesting logic, which would be a piece of work to tangle with. I don't know what goes on in the cavernous regions of others' minds, I don't even know what goes on in those regions of my mind. However, the theory that racism has something to do with it probably rose because this is our first partly black president and this is the first time this issue has come up. Perhaps some other reason has made this issue come up, but I can't think of one--his funny name, has to do with his heritage, which is how he got his color. We have had other presidents with funny names from heritages of other countries, but his name suggest one we happen to hate right now. If he was pure white with such a middle name, I wonder if there would be controversy over his place of birth. Any ideas?
As to "No Trump"--the only thing one has to fear - is that he would actually get any real percentage of votes, enough to swing an election, which is quite unlikely.

[Mark Byron]

There is a big ethnocentric streak in the birther crowd. It might not be racist per se, but there are a lot of folks for whom a guy with a Muslim-sounding name is just too foreign for them, even if he's a liberal Protestant not far from where you're at, Anne. [Note to Peanut Gallery-Anne's the "house liberal" in my circle of friends here in Midland]

The fact that's he's black doesn't help matters. Many of the birthers would be troubled were Obama's dad a Caucasian Arab rather than a Kenyan, but that African descent feeds into it.

The ramifications of a Trump third-party run would be bigger than you think. More on that later.

[Anne Wolfe]

While these "birthers" deliberate over a man with a foreign sounding name, why don't they consider this: there are plenty of American citizens, with minority status, who may or may not feel marginalized, who could be educated and motivated, who might run for president some day, and they might also have foreign sounding names. Soon, if not already, the Caucasions will be the minority. Spanish -Americans, African Americans, and other minorities, will out-number "white" Americans, and they will vote. Plus, there are many children, born in America, raised in other countries, who legitimately are America citizens. They could establish residency in the U.S. and run for president, and get a large percentage, moved by their message, whatever it be, to vote for them. Legally. It could happen someday. How likely, I don't know, but if those in power now overplay their hand, anything could happen. And, right now, any foreign-born person who establishes residency, I believe, can run for Congress, the Senate, mayor, whatever, and they might start doing it. Can you say it would never work? Well, aren't foreign companies buying up our property? Is it a stretch to say that some day we might go from being owned by foreigners to being run by foreigners? Aren't we in debt, first and foremost, because of our foreign wars, not our social programs? Aren't our jobs being outsourced, while we are failing to provide necessary education to our young to keep competitive? And while these genius leaderships of companies outsource our jobs, little do they know they they may be outsourced next. They are not inexpendable either. Sorry to get off track, but we have much more to worry about than foreign-sounding names. We have to worry about keeping our country educated, fed, clothed, taken care of, and competitive. Hungry kids don't do well in school. Kids who are homeless don't, either. How many people know that a large number of the homeless population are school-aged kids? Not just crazies who "want to be homeless?" (Yuk-yuk.) These birthers seem to have their minds on very, very non-pertinent subjects, and when it comes to important subjects, they are easily let the wrong way. Please forgive me for being so forthright, but to me it is black and white issue. (no pun intended.) I wish I could be lighter and joke a little about it. As for Trump, perhaps I should say, The only thing we have to fear is Trump himself.

[Anne Wolfe]

Well, I had a lot of steam to blow off there. I think you are being a bit too kind to the birther crowd. I believe a very white person with the name "Barak Hussein Obama" would be to them a white person with an unfortunately weird-funny name, but a black liberal is unforgivable. I believe the black and liberal in combination is deadly. There are two types of bigotry operating here, one is racial, the other is about those darn bleeding-hearts who get everything wrong and their motives are probably anything but true patriotism and caring for the unfortunate, the extremists would like to think, I am guessing. Barak is nothing but an American named after an absentee African dad. With an American white mother--young and foolish, too. And a good grandmother, white, also, I believe, who raised him. However, being too kind is generally better than the other, so perhaps I am guilty of being too cynical. Racism is an ugly thing, and an ugly thing to accuse someone of. Well, I cannot say I am free of it entirely. Would I marry someone of another racial heritage? (Might be a joke or trick question--at my age, and single, might be a moot point.) But, if it were not a moot point, the answer would be, I really don't know. Do "preconceived ideas" enter my head when I see certain facial features? Yes. Do I try to fight them down? Yes. Do I wish it weren't so? Yes. Can I do anything about it? I just keep plodding on, doing my best, trying to be honest with myself, if I can be.
By that Trump joke, Trump himself, the very worst thing would be if Trump himself were president, the next bad thing would be him having a credible third party and affecting the election, depending on your point of view and which side he could steal votes from. I dread the thought it could happen - partly because the idea that it is possible would tell me how much our educational system has failed to produce people who can think for themselves, but has produced a generation of TV-worshippers who will vote for anything that entertains them. Perhaps that is what is wrong the trend of having teachers who teach by entertaining, and judging teachers by seeing who wins the popularity contests with the students.