Iowa vs South Carolina

The rumor of the week, as Bene noted earlier, is that Rick Perry will announce a presidential run at a big Red State shindig in Columbia, SC Saturday. I find that rather fitting, as Perry seems more suited for South Carolina than Iowa; the other main political event of the day is the Iowa GOP straw poll in Ames.

Both states have primary electorates that skew more evangelical than the rest of the country, but Perry should be more at home in SC. Part of that is the fact that Perry is a southerner and can appeal to a conservative southern electorate in ways no one else in the race can; Perry is a conservative Methodist like his former running mate Dubya, but southern Methodists (but not Southern Methodist U) are often as conservative as a Baptist.

There are four southern-based candidates in the race, but Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich are transplanted Yankees and Perry's style might be more at home for white southerners than Herman Cain; I'm talking more black preacher style versus white preacher style than skin tone, although the latter could be at play as well.

In addition, my general thought (correct me if I'm wrong) is that southern theological rhetoric is used to being in the majority and couch an argument to a Baptist aesthetic, while northern evangelicals are somewhat more used to being in a more ecumenical environment. That's going to make northern evangelicals like Bachmann and Pawlenty travel a bit better than Perry, but will also make them sound less authentic down south. Perry will strike cords in southern voters, especially the more reactionary voters in South Carolina; they're not that reactionary, for Tim Scott got a House seat there and Nikki Haley is in the governor's chair, but it's a very old-school state.

I can see Perry using South Carolina as his first big win, since Bachmann has favorite daughter status in Iowa and New Hampshire will be both a tough sell and have Romney as a near-favorite son. Declaring there would give him good local coverage in a must-win (or at least must do really well) state for him. He has the added advantage of being a son of the South that speaks White Baptist as a native tongue.

Comments

[Bene D]

I read that Perry's announcement will overshadow the results of the Iowa Straw Poll by grabbing significan media attention for him.

[Mark Byron]

Yes it will. The headlines are "Perry Announces Presidential Run" and "[Bachmann or Romney] Wins Iowa Straw Poll", likely in that order. That steals some of the thunder of the Iowa winner.