Crony Macaroni

Sarah Palin gave an interesting speech today out in Iowa. I have no good clue if she's running or not, but she'd have my vote right now if she did. Emphasis on right now; I still don't know enough of Rick Perry to give a yea-or-nay as of yet. 

She had a few interesting malaprops, like "John FK," that the usual suspects on the left will snicker at, but gave a good right-populist speech. Her theme of Crony Capitalism as a beneficiary of establishment Washington will play well to the Tea Party wing of the party and give inroads to independents and moderate Democrats were she to get the nomination. She also did it with humor and a smile, which works better than just straight bile.

By the way, I thought she was aiming more at Boehner and McConnell rather than Rick Perry, unlike what the CNN folks were saying post-speech (strangely, Fox News ignored the speech); there might be grounds for friction between the two, but this was more a shot at K Street and the politician who cater to it than anyone in Austin.

Does she have an avenue to the nomination? Possibly. There's about a third of the party that won't vote for her; a good hunk of moderates would vote for anyone but her and another hunk of establishment conservatives will be wedded to anyone who wasn't a Tea Party type. The stormin' Mormons have that vote, with Huntsmann appealing to the former and Romney appealing to the latter.

Ron Paul has his 10%. The Paulistas might vote for her on a second ballot at the convention, but they're an a-Pauling bunch until then.

That leaves about 55% that's open to Palin. Once things boil down and the second-tier candidates gracefully drop out after South Carolina or sooner, we'll have Romney, Perry, Bachmann and Palin fighting over that group. Romney is a tough sell to the non-establishment conservatives, and Bachmann may have her niche stomped on by both Perry and Palin.

Folks looking for executive experience will lean towards Perry. Palin did 2/3rds of a term as governor, but Perry has done two and 2/3s of a term to date. That's not a total trumping stat, but it is a selling point among a lot of conservative voters. Also, Palin's bug-out of the governor's spot, albeit for good reasons to let Alaska have a governor who wasn't dodging media fire 24/7, didn't sit well with a lot of folks.

Folks uncomfortable with women and Mormons in the White House will lean towards Perry. I don't know what percentage of the electorate that is, but it's a non-trivial one. A lot of conservative voters, if presented with a conservative guy and a conservative gal with roughly the same platform, will vote for the guy. Some of it is sexism, some of it is the media being far harsher on conservative women then conservative men and damaging Palin and Bachmann, some of it will be complementarianism extended into politics, but quite a few good-ol'-boys (and girls) will lean towards wanting a guy in charge.

Folks looking for angry will lean towards Perry (and Bachmann to a lesser extent). His book Fed Up fits the mood of a lot of Tea Party voters. I don't like angry much in my leaders; I prefer my rhetoric done with a sense of humor and grace. However, angry is selling well this cycle, and Perry plays into that.

Is being an Angry Male with gubernatorial experience enough to get Perry the nomination? If he performs well in the next few months (especially in the next two debates, one next week in California and the one in two weeks in Orlando), Perry could well corner a majority of that 55% that is open to Palin. If Perry performs well there, the avenue for Palin might not be there this go-round and her sometime-during-September decision will be to pass on a run and keep being the free-lance political celebrity/writer/campaigner hybrid she's been doing since leaving Juneau.

If Perry lays an egg at the Reagan Library and in Orlando, becoming the Fred Thompson of the 2012 cycle, then Palin has a avenue to become the un-Mitt and get the nomination. Yes, she has negatives galore, but she has a rhetorical line of attack that can reach swing voters in ways that Mitt Romney could never pull off. If Romney were to call for zeroing out the corporate tax rate, it would look self-serving; as a more blue-collar gal, Palin can pull that off and still be a populist.

However, it looks like the nomination could be nearly sewn up this month by a good Perry performance; if he sells himself as the un-Mitt well, Palin will be hitting up the cable networks for more wilderness TV series and working on a third book rather than running for president. If he doesn't... it will be fun to see the usual suspects have a multi-month conniption fit.

Comments

[Alan]

Bachman is already gone in all but name. Only Romney, Perry, and Huntsman can survive and Huntsman has to live inversely by the success of Romney. Palin not not enter, too far off media allowance for her.

[Mark Byron]

I know Huntsman is up your alley, Alan. We haven't talked about him in person yet, but he fits your style as a social moderate and economic conservative. The latter is going to make him a rather hard sell in the modern GOP; he'll have a niche and might do well in states where independents and/or Democrats can cross over freely, but will likely max out at about 20% at best within actual GOP voters.