A bit of straw-polling over the weekend. Herman Cain won a Florida poll of Republican folks while Mitt Romney won a poll of Michigan GOP insiders on Mackinac Island.
That might give Cain some second wind, but probably not enough to overhaul the Perry machine. Straw polls aren't great indicators, since they have very low turnout and can be gamed either by a good ground game getting your folks there or by the nature of the crowd. Cain seemed to win the Florida crowd with his message, which plays well when he's on his game; Cain has been gaffe-prone in the campaign in the past, but is faster on his feet than Perry, to be sure.
Romney winning the Somewhere in Time straw poll is almost a non-issue. The son of a former MI governor and 2012's Mr. Inside is an easy sell to the folks who took the ferry over to the Grand Hotel; it's not a Perry or Bachmann crowd and the Paulistas would be left on the mainland.
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Chris Christie as the anti-Mitt? Possibly, if he can talk himself into a run. He has enough budget-cutting chops to keep the Tea Party happy and is a native of the Acella corridor, placating the insiders on the East Coast uneasy about some evangelical folks from flyover country getting the nomination.
He's likely be good in a debate, but I'm not sure how he would sell outside of the northeast and how he would fare on social issues. With Perry underperforming in debates and in general election polls, folks are looking for an alternative not-Mitt.
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