The Republican race is getting interesting, but in some not-so-good ways.
- We're seeing Rick Perry turn into a neo-Birther in order to get some press; getting complements from Donald Trump is a bad sign.
- Perry's flat tax seems the worst of both worlds. It lets the well-off pay at 20% if that's better than what they get with the current code; call it an Alternative Maximum Tax. One of the advantages of most flat-tax proposals is that they gut all the deductions and credit that keep K Street busy; this doesn't shut those down at all. K Street stays put and the lion share of the help skews way upscale, other than some families who could take advantage of a bigger zero bracket.
- Herman Cain is my tentative pick at the moment, but the man is arrogant. Not that he's not the first presidential candidate with a healthy ego, he seems to carry his lack of knowledge in corners of policy as a badge of honor. I don't have the name of the Uzbekistani president committed to memory, either, but I don't take pride in that.
- When he's being himself and not being desperate, Rick Santorum is a good guy. He was acquitting himself on Fox News rather well this morning while I was in the doctor's office. Put him in a debate setting, and he starts swinging below the belt in order to try and make points; it doesn't become him.
- Santorum is banking on doing well in Iowa to give him a springboard. He's going to have to fight Michelle Bachmann for the social conservative vote; Cain's conflicting statements on abortion, pro-life to the max here, strong libertarian streak there, will give Santorum some wiggle-room in Iowa.
- However, they will have to cross what the Red State folks have christened the Pauldoza line; coming in third ahead of Ron Paul will give them bragging rights for going forward as an alternative to Cain and Romney. That's a bit of a pipe dream at present, since both are well under the Pauldoza line in Iowa.
- Newt is slowly gaining traction. He's just under the Pauldoza line (11%-10%) and could be a lot of caucus goers' second choice; expect him to do better in delegate count than in popular vote, as 15% is the cutoff for getting delegates if memory serves, and he could be a landing spot for less-popular candidate's fans.
- If Newt does break pass the Pauldoza line in Iowa and comes in third, he's in position to walk away with it all if one of the two leaders (most likely Cain) melts down.
- I don't see Perry recovering to get the nomination. He can be effective as a spoiler in dragging down Romney, but negative ads in a multi-player race don't always work as planned, as if B trashes A, the would-be A voter can vote for C or D instead.
- This is one of the more interesting primary seasons in recent memory
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