It's too cold to show some leg in Alaska, so Sarah's showing some long-johns-
"It's not too late for folks to jump in," Palin said. "Who knows what will happen in the future."
I don't know what the filing deadlines are, but if the conservatives in the race flame out by SC, the race is Romney-Newt-Paul, which displeases a near-majority of the party. If no one out of the Santorum-Perry-Bachmann trio makes it past South Carolina, Palin could step in without having to elbow any of them aside.
It's ancient history in political terms, but Bobby Kennedy 1968 comes to mind; he didn't get in the race until well after New Hampshire, with LBJ wounded by not covering the spread there. If we get Paul winning Iowa, Mitt winning NH and Newt winning South Carolina, there would easily be room for Palin in the race, especially if the SPB Trio is forced to pack it in.
__________
Note that I didn't include Ron Paul in that batch; he's a libertarian, not a conservative. However, he is poised to get a plurality win in Iowa. The two most recent polls have him in the lead, albeit with only 24 and 23 percent; six people, including all three of the SPB Trio, are cracking 10% in one of the polls.
Does that kill the caucuses for the future, as Politico is positing? No, take a look at the situation, where 20% could easily carry the day. That's a perfect storm where a motivated niche following can carry the day. Usually, that MNF can only get a good second, like Rev-run Pat did in 1988, but when you have a six-way race, lame pluralities are the order of the day.
____________
Interestingly, Newt is coming back down to earth. Rick Perry is having a bit of a comeback and Rick Santorum might just be the last non-Mitt left standing. Everyone might be hitting below the Paudoza line in Iowa.
That doesn't mean that Paul is going to get the nomination. He's not going to get to win with 25% once the field narrows, and primaries are less conducive to Paul's MNF.
Comments