Iowa-1

If the polling stays to form, we can write off at least one candidate after Iowa tomorrow night-Michelle Bachmann. If she fails to get more than 10% (she's at 7% on average of the two out today), she has little leverage to go forward if she can't do better than 6th in her birth state. She'll have to crack 10% to be in the conversation going forward.

Rick Perry needs a double-digit showing to keep in the hunt. He might be able to take a 9% showing and limp into SC, but if he can nudge Newt out for fourth, he might be able to make a case for being a conservative alternative. Right now, that's a 15 Newt-10 Perry spread, so Perry is likely on life support going forward with the plug to be pulled post-SC.

Newt...good question. A fourth place showing in Iowa will be troubling, but he does have the lead in both SC and Florida. Unless he somehow craters into single digits, he's still in the game.

Rick Santorum is suddenly in the conversation. A win makes him a major player in SC and a minor one in NH. He can win a lot of Newt support as a viable conservative (broadly defined-economic conservatives don't like him much) alternative to Romney and pick up the Perry and Bachmann backers looking for a home.

A close second or third makes him the soclal conservative candidate going forward, where a 25% plurality will be in the hunt in a four or five-way race.

Romney would get some props for a win here, but a low-20s plurality will be nothing to brag about.

Ron Paul? A win doesn't trash the caucus; he's got a 10% niche market who punch above their weight in caucuses. He also might get some Democratic crossover votes; Iowa voters have to become GOP members to vote, but other primary states allow voters to choose their primary, and with a lack of a race on the Democratic side, we'll likely see some raiding there.

Paul can force a convention if he can keep people from getting close to a majority, but he doesn't seem to have a realistic chance of winning the nomination. Might getting Rand on the ticket as the VP be one possibility to keep him on board?

Tomorrow night will prove interesting.

Comments

[Bene Diction]

Good call.

I'm watching Fox News (don't fall off your chair;^) and with 40% of polls reporting Santorum and Romney are bouncing back and forth in the lead. Bachmann is gone, Perry is limping. I have the impression Gingrich is not liked by the party, it's interesting to be sure.

[Mark Byron]

Fox actually does a good job on hard news; it's the commentary shows that leave a lot to be desired. Plus, if you are following a Republican primary, it helps if you have people who aren't dismissive of most of the field. CNN does a good job on hard news, but the garden-variety pundits there are on a different theological and ideological plane than the GOP field.

Good catch on Newt; he isn't quite conservative enough on economics to please the more free-market folks in the party. Plus, the baggage of being on his third wife is a hard sell, even if he seems to have made a heartfelt trip across the Tiber.

After Iowa's vote, only Ron Paul is viable amongst the economic conservatives, but he's off on another planet ideologically.