Mark Byron

Iowa + 1

As expected, Michelle Bachmann has bowed out of the race. 5% on her home turf just doesn't give her much to go on. She did show some very good chops on foreign policy and has room to stay a player in national politics for a good while forward.

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I'm not sure what will come of this, but something of a theocon smoke-free smoke-filled-room is set for this weekend in Texas to "come to a consensus on which Republican presidential candidate or candidates to support, or which not to support.” No, I don't think the Southern Poverty Law Center got an invite, since Dobson and Wildmon did. It might be the party to do a Rick Roll, rolling Perry to support Santorum.

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John McCain's backing Romney. That will help in some quarters, but it will make Romney look more establishmentarian to conservatives. They didn't care for McCain last time, don't care for Romney then and now, and a merger of the two won't impress them much.

 

 

No Dispassionate Conservatives, Sorry

As we get up this moring, the Iowa tally has Romney 8 votes ahead of Santorum, 30,015 to 30, 007. A squeaker at 25% each. Paul came in at 22, Newt got 14, Perry 11 and Bachmann 5.

Over at Red State, Mr. Erickson isn't happy with the results-

Bachmann, the Iowa native, won not a single county. Even Rick Perry won two counties. Bachmann must drop out. Frankly, it makes sense for Perry to do so as well except for one issue.

If Rick Perry drops out of the race it will be the ultimate failure of the tea party movement to see the race come down to two or three big government conservatives. Romney and Santorum both hide behind compassionate conservatism to expand the state to suit their purposes. Only Rick Perry has run a campaign to make Washington “as inconsequential to our lives as possible.”

The Tea Party is roughly equal parts secular libertarian and Christian free-marketers. The latter has a champion in Ron Paul, who's 22% showing in Iowa keeps in well in the mix for delegates even as he has little chance of actually getting the nomination.

The former started to coalesce around Herman Cain before his campaign imploded, but never settled on a second choice after that. A Perrymann fusion would have gotten a solid 16% and finished fourth, but wouldas, couldas and shouldas always take three to five strokes off your golf game.

Perry has a shot at taking a deep breath and taking one last shot at it in South Carolina. However, it might prove to be a suicide mission that would kill off everyone but Romney and Paul once the dust settles.

If Perry goes out gracefully, we're left with Ron Paul and three folks who are center-left within the GOP, at least on economics. 63% of the Iowa electorate voted for that troika and only 37% voted for Tea Party-friendly candidates. That doesn't please conservatives, but that's where we are at present. Compassionate conservatism sold better than either dispassionate conservatism or passionate ....[must....delete ...pejorative] ...Paulism.

Pruning Night

I'm listening to Rick Perry's post-caucus speech. He seems to be ready to pack it in; he's heading back to Texas to think through what comes next. That's not encouraging if you're a Perry fan.

Perry's in at 11% with 96% reporting. I felt 10% was the cutoff for him to keep at it, but with Santorum in a dead heat with Romney at 25%, Santorum won the social conservative primary. There's very little room for Perry to be the nominee at this point, lest he be drafted later on.

Bachmann only got 6%. She sounded defiant but rumor has her bowing out.

Newt got 14% and is moving forward.

Ron Paul is in at 22%. He's very unlikely to be the nominee, but has a following.

Since the raw vote isn't an issue in the delegate process, there is no recount, but this is recount-close, with only 13 votes separating Romney and Santorum as I go to press. Santorum wins the night even if he finishes in a really close second.

Iowa-1

If the polling stays to form, we can write off at least one candidate after Iowa tomorrow night-Michelle Bachmann. If she fails to get more than 10% (she's at 7% on average of the two out today), she has little leverage to go forward if she can't do better than 6th in her birth state. She'll have to crack 10% to be in the conversation going forward.

Rick Perry needs a double-digit showing to keep in the hunt. He might be able to take a 9% showing and limp into SC, but if he can nudge Newt out for fourth, he might be able to make a case for being a conservative alternative. Right now, that's a 15 Newt-10 Perry spread, so Perry is likely on life support going forward with the plug to be pulled post-SC.

Newt...good question. A fourth place showing in Iowa will be troubling, but he does have the lead in both SC and Florida. Unless he somehow craters into single digits, he's still in the game.

Rick Santorum is suddenly in the conversation. A win makes him a major player in SC and a minor one in NH. He can win a lot of Newt support as a viable conservative (broadly defined-economic conservatives don't like him much) alternative to Romney and pick up the Perry and Bachmann backers looking for a home.

A close second or third makes him the soclal conservative candidate going forward, where a 25% plurality will be in the hunt in a four or five-way race.

Romney would get some props for a win here, but a low-20s plurality will be nothing to brag about.

Ron Paul? A win doesn't trash the caucus; he's got a 10% niche market who punch above their weight in caucuses. He also might get some Democratic crossover votes; Iowa voters have to become GOP members to vote, but other primary states allow voters to choose their primary, and with a lack of a race on the Democratic side, we'll likely see some raiding there.

Paul can force a convention if he can keep people from getting close to a majority, but he doesn't seem to have a realistic chance of winning the nomination. Might getting Rand on the ticket as the VP be one possibility to keep him on board?

Tomorrow night will prove interesting.

Bowl Morning Musings

DeMarcus Cousins might be on the move, as he seems to have had a falling out with Sacramento management. The Kings picked him just before the Pistons snagged Greg Monroe in the 2010 draft; having been down in Lexington for Cousins' one year there, I was disappointed at the time. However, Monroe has turned into a very serviceable big man, looking more and more like a young Tim Duncan.

Cousins is emotional and a bit of a head case, but I recall Rasheed Wallace had that same rep when he hit Detroit; he became a key cog in the Piston's good late-00s clubs. Cousins could be had for a late (or delayed) first-rounder if he's become persona non grata in SAC. Detroit has a need for a good big man, and Cousins might be worth rolling the dice for.

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Santorum on the move. The polls seem to point to him in a sold third and closing fast. If some Perry, Newt and Bachmann voters opt to slide to Santorum, he could become part of the lead pack.

Someone from the right needs to emerge for that part of the electorate to the right of Newt and Mitt and not in orbit in the Paul system. Santorum might not have the money of the big boys in the race, but a 20% or better showing gets him at the adult table.

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Detroit and Denver backed into playoff spots. It's odd to see Denver hosting Pittsburgh in a first-rounder, as the Steelers just missed being the top seed.