This has not been a good year for conventional wisdom in the GOP race. Rick Santorum went from being a theocon spoiler to being part of the lead pack after winning Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota yesterday. Santorum underpolled across the board and Gingrich overpolled, but Romney's underwhelming day opened the race up.
One thing people forget about when assessing Santorum's chances in the general is the blue collar churchgoer who is as much of a swing voter as the suburban soccer mom. People assume that swing voters are economic conservatives and social moderates, but there is a comparable block of economic moderates and social conservatives. However, the former group is over-represented in the universe most pundits live in.
The sons and daughters of Reagan Democrats are a prime target for Santorum in order to patch together a majority in November. Libertarians won't like him, but unless they major in social issues, they'll likely hold their nose and go with Santorum.
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