If you run the Electoral College math, using the likely-voter numbers in recent polls, you get a 266-266 dead heat with Iowa being the toss-up state. That assumes that Nevada, Colorado and New Hampshire go to Obama and Florida, Ohio and Virginia go to Romney. The two likely voter polls of recent vintage are +1 Obama and +1 Romney, although the former is from We Ask America and the latter is Rasmussen; if I had to pick between the two, I'd take the veteran Rasumssen rather than newbie.
There's a lot of water to go under the bridge between now and November, but it looks like I'd be lawyering up in Iowa if I were running the recount-readiness team for one of the campaigns.
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