I just made an interesting analogy- Quebec's soon-to-be-outgoing premier Jean Charest and newly-minted Democratic hero Charlie Christ. Charest was a moderate Conservative federal PM (actually leading what was left of the Tories after getting sideswiped by Reform and the BQ in the early 90s) before switching parties and becoming the leader of Quebec's Liberals. If the polls hold up, Charest is slated to be out of a job, with the Parti Quebecios slated to get the most seats and Charest's Liberals in a tight race for second with the center-right Francophone CAQ.
That might not be fair for Charest, who hasn't seemed to do as quick and as blatant a flip-flop on things as Crist. However, I have heard scuttlebut that Crist might be up for another go as governor as a Democrat; I think that would be the first time in the modern era that a governor has switch parties and gotten reelected. We've had congressmen do that and I think Ben Nighthorse Campbell did that in the Senate in the other direction (Shelby and Strom Thurmond as well, but they weren't as cool as the Navite American judo guy), but I can't think of a Republican-turned-Democrat get elected governor as both.
Anyways, back north of the border... The PQ is slated to get the most seats unless the polls are uniformly screwed. What is still to be seen is whether the PQ gets a majority. A Maxwell Smart plurality ("missed it by that much") could be filled in with Quebec Solidaire, a bunch that remind me of the Occupiers south of the border; they're slated to get one or two seats, which could come into play if my Agent 86 impression is called for tomorrow morning.
If a PQ-QS package is still short of a majority, we could well see the silver and bronze team join forces. The CAQ ("Coalition for Quebec's Future" is the translation) is a largely Franophone party, made up of the libertarian ADQ party and center-right "soft separatists" defecting from the PQ with the latter taking the lead. The Liberals and the CAQ would have more in common in day-to-day governing than either would with the PQ, so we could see the largest party in opposition.
One thing to note is that there doesn't seem to be a huge appetite for independence. The pro-independence vote would struggle to break 40%, if we combine the PQ and QS vote, 43% if we add the conservative Option Nationale, who might snag a seat.
Thus, the PQ would be hard-pressed to claim a huge mandate for independence, especially when they snagged a majority of the seats with 35% or less of the vote. A PQ win, or especially a PQ-QS coalition, would mean bigger government for Quebec, but wouldn't spell the end of Canada as we know it.
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