We're a week out from the election, and it's looking like a squeaker. Romney has a slight lead in national polls, but a lot of key swing states are too close to call.
Five states should play the focal point; Ohio(18 electoral votes), Wisconsin(10), Iowa(6), Colorado(9) and New Hampshire(4). If Romney can hold onto the south, including Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, then he'll be at 248, assuming that Indiana and the usual suspects in the prairies and inland west stay in the GOP camp.
Romney would then need the following
(1) Ohio and one other state on the swing-state map. For Obama to win without Ohio, he will have to run the other four states on that master swing list; hard, but not impossible.
(2) If Ohio refuses to drop, Romney would need to win three of the other four states.
Winning more than what is needed could be helpful, since if Ohio is the tell-tale, the lawyers will be out in force; thankfully, there is a Republican governor in Ohio which should help point things away from a Florida-like fiasco.
However, if Romney wins, say, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire as well, then Democrats would have to invalidate Ohio and another one on that list to get the job done. To twist the old Hugh Hewitt line, if it's close in a lot of places, they have to "cheat" more.