When countries fall apart, all bets are off. Somalia has at least three independent segments, one of which (Puntland) is a pirate haven. Syria may be heading in that direction, as a Western-friendly opposition government is given the back of the hands of Islamists in the second city of Aleppo-
Islamist rebels are unimpressed with the new grouping.
In a video posted online, an unidentified speaker sits at the head of a long table with at least 20 others, in front of a black Islamist flag. He lists some 13 armed Islamist groups who reject the opposition coalition.
"We are the representatives of the fighting formations in Aleppo and we declare our rejection of the conspiratorial project, the so-called national alliance," he says. "We have unanimously agreed to urgently establish an Islamic state."
Aleppo isn't far from the Turkish border, nor is it too far from the Mediterranean. The former could make it a thorn to Turkey, or allow Turkey to make it a thorn to an unfreindly Syrian government. There is no grand rule requiring Syria to stay unified once the Assad team is shown the door, and an Islamist-run Aleppo might not be easily ousted without outside help, especially if one of their neighbors is interested in keeping them in power.
If that Aleppo faction can swing west and set up shop on the Med, it could wind up acting a bit like Puntland and make the western Med a no-go zone like the entrance to the Red Sea and the route to the Suez Canal was terrorized by Somali pirates. That's a bit of a long-shot, but the prospects of an Islamic Jack Sparrow doing Pirates of the Mediterranean isn't that big of a stretch if Somalia is any lession.