Jersey Bounce

Chris Christie gets good press, partly due to the fact that he's in the heart of MSM country in New Jersey and partly due to the fact that he's a moderate Republican; the media lap up telegenic pro-choice Republicans like a dog in 100-degree weather. He sounds conservative with his bombastic style but his politics are more right-of-center than Tea Party. He's up for reelection next year and is doing rather well post-Sandy, getting a 77% approval rating.

However, that isn't likely to translate into a run for the Presidency... at least not on the Republican side of the aisle. Being pro-abortion rights and centrist on climate change issues (which doesn't take much; merely respecting climate research will get a large part of the right hot and bothered) makes him a tough-sell with both economic and social conservatives. You'd have to have something going for you to see the remaining 60% of the GOP primary electorate who wouldn't reflexively veto such a passage, and Christie isn't that good; if Colin Powell and Rudy couldn't pull it off, Christie isn't likely to pull it off.

He's be a great independent candidate for president, triangulating between a stock-liberal candidate and a stock conservative candidate rather nicely; he'd be good for a third of the normal Republican vote and a third of the normal Democratic vote and kick butt with independents.

Comments

[NKR]

He may be more right-of-center than Tea Parities, but far-right relative to past Republican New Jersey Governors. Tom Kean and Christy Whitman didn't think it was cute to not make the state's required contribution to pension funds. Kean championed education and Whitman made great strides in environmental regulation during their respective governorships. Christie's educational plan is milquetoast and his energy plan isn't a bold step forward. Not sure what Christie's sway among independents would be, other than his no-nonsense attitude (which to me is more polarizing than helpful).

Agreed that it is unlikely he will make a POTUS run. But that probably has more to do with his physical appearance and athleticism. The President plays basketball and keeps his weight down. G.W. is famous for his jogging. Even Bill Clinton insisted on jogging 3 days a week in those awful 90s high-shorts.

[Mark Byron]

Yes, he's to the right of Kane and CTW, but that's not saying much; both of them were pro-choice moderates who'd be hard-pressed to win a GOP primary these days. Whitman had a bit of a libertarian streak but Kane was of an earlier generation of moderates who are homeless these days, too moderate for the modern Dems but written off as RINOS by conservatives; Bill Milliken here in Michigan is a good analogue for Kane, and he has little love for the modern Michigan GOP.

The weight would be an issue, but not an insurmountable one; I recall another moderate Republican who lost reelection 100 years ago this month (Taft) who could join Christie as offensive tackle on the GOP all-time team. Gerald Ford gets to play center, since he played there at Michigan and even got drafted by the Packers.

[NKR]

Good points. Rumors were running around for a while that Joe Schwartz would run as a Dem over in Michigan (Battle Creek?). If that had happened, RINOs might have had a temporary shelter, at least.