Mark Byron

Saturday Morning Confusion

Gen. Petraeus seemed to be about the last guy to get caught with his pants down, but he would up having an affair and stepping down from his CIA post because of it. He seemed to be one of the good guys, having written the book on counter-insurgency warfare and becoming the top general on the ground in Southern Asia before getting the CIA job. He was mentioned as a possible running mate for Romney, as many respected generals are.

No, I don't think this is designed to head off him talking to Congress about the Benghazi case; there wouldn't be anything to stop the committees from asking a newly-former CIA chief to talk about stuff other than the standard security issues that might require part of his testimony to be done privately to keep secret stuff secret.

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The Air Force provided a great backdrop for Michigan State's basketball opener, as they turned a C-130 hanger into a fieldhouse in a couple of days at the big Ramstein base in Germany. Alas, UConn won, giving interim head coach Kevin Ollie a win in his first win since taking over from Jim Calhoun. However, MSU loves to play a tough out-conference schedule, since you'll learn more by losing to UConn than by mopping the floor with Slippery Rock, as Michigan did last night.

Speaking of openers; Kentucky has reloaded. This might well be a better club that last year, and they won the title last year.

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Interesting divorce of sorts in Alberta, as the provincial Tories are looking to distance themselves from their federal brethern. Since Alberta's conservative split in two with a Tea Party-style Wildrose Alliance starting up and coming in a solid second in the last election, you saw a few federal Conservatives MPs backing Wildrose. The automatic seats that federal Conservative MPs get at the provincial conventions may be pulled as a result.

That's a natural progression, since the provincial PCs are more centrist, having pruned the more libertarian/social conservative wing off via Wildrose; the current provincial Tories look more like the RINOey federal Tories of the 90s before merging back with the Reform/Alliance movement, more Joe Clark than Stockwell Day or Stephen Harper.

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I'm showing my age, but the news of Justin Welby as the new Archbishop Of Canterbury had me thinking of Marcus Welby, the old TD doctor. Welby is a moderate evangelical within the Anglican camp, somewhat more in line with the southern old-school churches than the British and North American churches who have listed left by and large. He's not an economic conservative, having chewed out lenders in a speech at the House of Lords, but he does have a business background, having worked for an oil company before entering the ministry.

What that means for pan-Anglican affairs remains to be seen. Welby seems to be pro-women-in-ministry but old-school on homosexual issues; thus, he's on the liberal side of one hot-button issue and on the conservative side of the other. The classic mugwump, with his mug on one side and his wump on the other.

Bronx-on-the-Pacific?

That was fast; Mike Brown got shoved under the bus by the Busses after only five games with Superfriends West. True, it was 1-4 with Nash hurt and Howard still a bit stiff coming back from a bad back, but there must have been something under the surface. A trigger this quick sounds like something the Yankees would do when Boy George had a bad burrito the night before.

The possible problem was trying to run a Princeton offense with a quartet of Hall of Famers. You run Princeton when you have brains but not talent and need to out-think your opposition or at least make them work hard on defense by moving and screening and moving and screening and moving some more.

You also need a good-shooting big man to run Princeton; Dwight Howard is more Fresh Prince than Princeton. Pau Gasol would be a great Princeton-style center, but as a power-forward running with a center who is only effective near the paint, he's not as effective.

Also, Steve Nash's ability to run an offense is diminished if you're making everyone into point-guards. When you have one of the better passers in NBA history, let him do that.

Also, Kobe might not fit this offense. He thinks shoot first and knows he's the best shot on the team. He also is the franchise and can run you out of town if he doesn't like you, since coaches are easier to replace than Hall-of-Famers.

Mike D'Antoni would make the most sense of the vets mentioned in the piece. He has a working relationship with Nash from the Suns, has Italian roots that can play to Kobe's youth and has an high-octane offense that can take advantage of mobile big men like Gasol and Howard.

Bernie Bickerstaff isn't chopped liver; he's an NBA lifer who has enough gravitas to deal with Kobe when his ego is in I'm-takin'-over mode. Mike Brown was solid (and will surface again in short order) but was a notch over his head with the Laker job.

What's in it for Joe Average Citizen?

The question I don't see getting answered from the aspect of the swing voter is "How does the Republican platform/policy set help me?"

Democrats can point to various policies (college tuition help, subsidized health care, a cleaner environment) that can have some tangible benefits, while most of the Republican benefits are indirectly impacting folks. Smaller government will mean smaller taxes and more take-home pay, not to mention more jobs if the economy responds to it.

However, no president is in a position to offer you a job personally, assuming that you are Joe Average Citizen who isn't going to get a patronage job in the next administration. Democrats can try to put money into supporting types of jobs and Republicans can work on the assumption that a lesser-taxed economy will create X million new jobs, but I can't depend upon one of those jobs coming my way.

With Obama, I at least get some subsidized health care coming in 2014. What would Romney's plan do other than get the public sector rolling somewhat? Dow Chemical's never hired me in 30+ years of trying, so are they going to do so now?

Republican economics is a harder sell, since you have to rely on a more abstract aid from a market economy rather than a more concrete set of government programs. You have to make people think that a stronger economy will help them more than the government help the Democrats are pledging.

Jump!

It might be time to look at the "Fiscal Cliff" and decide to dive in. The tax increases are going to be hard to swallow, but those can be decreased at a later date; the deficit reduction seems to be needed, lest we find ourselves in a Greek tragedy later in the decade as the $16B tab heads off into somewhere in the 20s if presented with a president who insists on spending and a House insisting on lower taxes.

Will that slow economic growth? Yes, but we're likely looking at slow econoic growth with a Chinese economy reaching a breaking point, a European economic still overlevered and the kicking in of Obamacare slowing things down. When the deficit does get contained and the voters looking for some better growth, we'll be in a position to have a helpful fiscal policy rather than just jacking up taxes in order to pay the interest on the mounting debt.

Here's some classic movie help from a couple of good liberals in Redford and Newman-

Mutha Nature on the Rebound

What's the most liberal area of the country? The northeast.

Who's getting in the neck again from Mutha Nature? Yep.

Mr. Matthews, if you though Sandy was a great date last week, we'll see how you like Athena. The radar loop for Athena (TWC has trotted out its first named winter storm of its new system) looks worse than Sandy.

What's the Mencken line? "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."

No, no. That's too nasty. Folks in the east don't deserve this; prayers are an order for the folks in harms way.

Just Say No

All six Michigan ballot proposals went down last night. I voted yes on Proposal 1, which would have confirmed the status quo on the emergency-administrator law, but it went down 48-52. I think if there weren't as many items up, it would have passed, for "no" became the default position on a crowed ballot.

Labor power grabs got shot down in Props 2 and 4, green mandates got shot down with Prop 3, anti-tax folks got shot down with Prop 5 and the Ambassador Bridge folks failed to shoot down the Bridge to Somewhere in Prop 6.

Even as voters went for Obama here in MI 54-46, a few of them showed that they have a good helping of common sense. There's a reasonable middle of about 15% who voted for Obama but against left-leaning (or acting left-leaning in the case of the Mourons anti-bridge pitch) but problematic proposals.

Four Mo' Years

Everything broke the President's way in the swing states, winning by 2% in Ohio, 3% in Virginia, 45K in Florida and comfortable margins in Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa.

Too big and too widespread to chalk up to cheating. The swing voter seems to prefer the status quo.

On top of that, all the balls bounced the Democrats way in the Senate; only Nebraska switched to the GOP and IN, MA and Maine all shifted to the Democrats. A North Dakota seat that seemed in the bag for Republicans is staying Democratic in a squeaker and hopeful shots in VA, OH and WI went for naught, not to mention own-goals in IN and MO where abortion faux pas (and media over-reaction, but that comes with the territory, sadly) did in what should have been two wins.

The House managed to stay Republican. That will create something of a break on any additional lurches to the left, but will give us the status quo at best and chaotic gridlock at worst.

We will seemingly get the start of "Obamacare" barring a second civil war. No, it isn't worth having it.

Is it Over?

I'm not sure if this race was called too early. Romney's still closing in Ohio and I'm not really sure if WI is out of reach. I'm probably wrong, but they called FL for Gore in 2000 and had to back-track.

Big Bird? No, Obama likes Grover

By this time tomorrow, somebody might be writing his concession speech. However, it might not be the presidential loser's last foray into politics, especially if the president is on the short end of the decision. The Gray Lady seems to think this is Obama's last race, win or lose. I'm not so sure

If he wins, I could easily see a 55-year-old Obama going off to Harvard or the University of Chicago to teach law and/or poli-sci or take on some UN post. We've yet to see a two-term ex-president get into politics after leaving the White House, although he might take a hankering to a possible Supreme Court slot a la Taft, assuming his successor was a Democrat (heaven help us).

If he loses, he might well be Grover Cleveland and set his sights on a 2016 rematch with Romney; he'd be a tough out in a primary.

The Future's So Dark, We Need the High-Beams

Mali doesn't get a lot of news coverage in normal times. The old shaggy-dog pun that comes to mind was the stainless-steel basin sold there, the unbrownable Mali sink.

Mali's northern parts, including the historic city of Timbuktu, has been taken over by jihadis who trash anything that they don't like; since they're just south of Libya, they might well have had a hand in the Benghazi embassy attack.

The president, whoever he might be come January, will have this one on his plate; the local African countries can provide some troops and diplomatic cover, but a Western responce seems to be needed, as Mr. Totten points out in his piece. If Yemen has become the drone capital of the world with their lawless wastes, Mali will be getting there in short order.

P.S.- here's your Timbuk3 earwig from the title.

Not so Fine China

To borrow from Tom Lehrer, China's got the cars, but have no fears, they can't wipe Detroit out for at least five years... who's next.

It makes no economic sense for major Western carmakers to build there and ship here. China-based automakers have not met the safety and quality standards to compete here yet, say automakers and analysts alike.

India might be next, with Mahindra making moves in the truck market and Tata looking at the developed-world market in the long term, but the Romney ads of seeing US car-making jobs heading to China seem somewhat overblown. Any growth in Chinese car exports will be towards the developing world, where cheaper, sub-standard cars are salable.

 

Bring Me the Ghost of Terry Bradshaw...and Karl Malone

College football is looking a bit funky; one could easily see a Florida-Louisiana Tech Sugar Bowl. That's not a typo. LTU is 20th in the BCS and could well snag an at-large slot if they get some help from the Big Ten.

A non-AQ conference champ gets in if they're in the top 12 or are in the top 16 but better than one of the AQ conference champs. The former is a tall order for LTU, but the latter might be doable if the run the table to go 11-1 and see Nebraska lose at least once down the stretch.

With games against Penn State and a likely Big Ten title game against Wisconsin, seeing the Huskers lose once is very feasable.

If things go as planned, Notre Dame will snag one BCS at-large slot, and a SEC team will likely be tabbed as Alabama's replacement for the Sugar Bowl; a 11-1 Florida would be a likely choice if they can beat Florida State. The Fiesta Bowl will likely pick the Big 12 runner up to replace Kansas State and take Notre Dame as its at-large pick.

That leaves the Sugar Bowl to pick next. If LTU snags an at-large spot by slipping past the Big 10 champ in the rankings, they and Louisville would be the options for the Sugar Bowl. The Sugar Bowl might opt for some home cooking rather than take a less-than-overwhelming Louisville fan base.

Quotas and Quotidian Statistics

This year's election has been hard to track, since a lot of pollsters seem to want to recreate the framework of 2008, when Democrats were on the rise and a tea party is something Anglophile women of a certain age did.

Thus, a number of pollsters have tended to tweak their samples to match 2008's partisan breakdown; thus, their polls seem to be on the Democratic side. Ones that assume a more neutral voter layout will have a more Republican slant.

Thus, you can shade your story by picking your preferred pollster. Republican-leaning press can play up Rasmussen, who assumes a more neutral distribution and gives results that are a few percent more pro-Romney than his MSM peers. The BBC on the other hand, seems to cite everything but Rasmussen in their poll of polls.

Whatever happened to just calling people and letting the chips fall where they may? Yes, I have studied political research methods back in the dark ages of the 1980 (a well-earned B- in that class), but the most tweaking that would be done is to adjust polls for demographic groups if the folks answering the question didn't quite mesh with black-Latino-Anglo or male-female breakdowns.

Tweaking for just the right partisan mix wasn't on radar back then. Why it has become so as of late is an interesting question that pollsters will have to answer for, especially if the MSM pollsters seem to have erred on the liberal side once the dust settles after tomorrow's elections.

The Pursuit of Happiness

Here's an interesting post from Richard Heyduck on truth versus happiness as the goal of modern parishioners. It's a read-the-whole-thing piece, but let me take a whack at this question towards the end of the piece-

How does happiness fit with truth and love?

Not all that well. Not at first, at least. The Holy Spirit will have some constructive criticism on some (if not many) parts of our lives, and folks might not be ready to hear that.

The truth sometimes hurts; the Church is often pitching spiritual surgery, which hurts in the short term but will produce a better life in the long term. If someone on a happiness quest doesn't want to change enough, then they will look elsewhere, either to secular culture or less demanding faiths.

More on this in the days to come, for it's worth coming back to.

Two Dark and Stark Nights to Go

This has been a draining election, with a lot of the effort being against stuff rather than for it.

One area of election signs along Wheeler has sproted a trio of anti-Democrat signed in black and white trying to link Obama with Michigan's senator Stabenow. Obama's in for a struggle to hold Michigan, while "Liberal Debbie" is mopping the floor with her GOP foe.

One sign puts the whole 16 billion of national debt on their lap; they have run up things at a record rate, but they did inherit 11 billion of that. Another cast Stabenow as a job killer; a bit of an exageration. She's not going postal on the private sector, although current law doesn't help much on that front.

On top of all that Nobama Negativity, we have six ballot proposals, five of which are dogs. Even yes votes are often against things; a yes on Prop-6 is a no on a new Detroit-Windsor bridge and a yes on 2 is a no on recent collective barganing reforms.

Two days to go.., and then, the recounts.