Bay County is my mom's home turf and my home-away-from-home as a kid visiting my grandparents. It's not quite as Rust Belty as Youngstown and Gary, but the ship-building and auto-factory jobs have dried up. It's been Democratic, going 52.5-46.5 for Obama in 2012 while the state went 54,3-44.8. Obama underperformed by 3.5% in Bay.
As we go to press, Trump has a 47.6-47.3 lead statewide. In Bay, he leads 53.5-40.9. Hillary underperformed by 12.3% in Bay County.
That's a 8.8% swing in underperformance between Obama and Clinton.
Bay County is only 1.8% black, so you have Trump's target audience in concentrate form; blue-collar whites, especially in factory towns that have badly declined over the last 40 years.
Suburban-vibed Midland Country went from Romney +15.5% to Trump +19.4%. That's a bit surprising, since I was seeing quite a few Clinton and Johnson voters among Republicans in my circle, but rural Democrats might well have gone Trump to offset the loss of soccer-mom votes.
Saginaw County went from 11.9% Obama to 1.2% Trump. A larger black community (19%) might have cushioned the effect that Bay County felt, as they both have lost a lot of factory jobs.
Very interesting times.