Mark Byron

Probability Theory vs The Football Code

I haven't gotten around to analyzing The Bad Call as of yet. Here I go.

For those of you who aren't sports fans, the issue at had flowed from last weekend's New England-Indianapolis game, where Indy was the beneficiary of a gutsy call by NE coach Bill Belichick. Let's set the scene.

34-28 New England. 2:08 to go, Colts sitting on one time out left. New England has it 4th and 2 at their own 28. The warrior code of football says "punt the ball and let the defense win the game for you; if you go for it , you're dissing your defense."

However, there's a Moneyball version of the story where the conventional wisdom might not be valid. Let's run the scenarios.

If the Pats get the first down, we're likely at the two minute warning if the play stays in bounds. Then, New England can call three running plays and milk the clock down to about 25 seconds left; Indy can use their time out to make one play take about 5-7 seconds but the other two will eat up about 45 seconds each as NE will run the play clock down to 1 before snapping. If they pick up another first down on those three plays, it's game over. If they don't, it's still a gut draw for Indy

Since New England is up six, they can take a safety without affecting the final result, as being up by 4 or 6 is moot at this point; Indy needs a touchdown to win either way. If they have the lead, a safety straddle (the punter runs into the end zone and plays keepaway for a few seconds) runs another 7-10 seconds off the clock and sets up a free kick (better than a punt since it can't be blocked or have a botched snap) at the 20 with about 15 seconds left.

Assuming a 40-yard net distance on the free kick (50 would be average, but it would likely be something squibby to prevent a big return), Indy gets the ball at their 40 with about 8 seconds left. Time for one quick pass out of bounds and a Hail Mary.

Thus, the Pats have about a 95% chance of winning it if they get the first down. Only a fumble, a free kick return for a TD or a Hail Mary pulls it off.

If they don't get it, you have Indy in the catbird seat. Two minutes left, ball about the NE 30, one time out and Indy in four-down mode. 80% chance of Manning sticking it in.

If you make the first down 60% of the time and win 95% of those and Indy converts on 80% of those misses, the likelihood of winning while going for it is .6*.95+0.4*.2=0.57+0.08=65%

If you're only 50/50, we get 0.5*.95+0.5*0.2=57.5%.

Then, the flipside comes. What's the chance of Payton Manning and crew marching 70 yards with two minutes and one time out? They'd already done that twice in that fourth quarter, having a pair of 79 yard drives that took 2:04 and 1:49. Throw in the possibility of a punt block or a punt return for a TD and that 60-65% win chance via going for it looks good, since the chance of Manning producing another long drive was about 50-50.

Does it go up against the Football Code? Yes. That's what got people hot and bothered last week.

However, the numbers were with Belichick. Tradition wasn't, but the numbers were.

As it turned out, Indy stuffed the fourth-down try and Manning led them in for a touchdown, winning 35-34. Sometimes you get the bear, and sometimes the bear gets you; however, you need to take your best shot at the bear, even if it is an unorthodox one.

Football Musings

• Michigan at 5-7. Two losing seasons in a row; if you could hook up a transformer to Bo spinning in his grave, you could give Detroit Edison plants the weekend off. The story of last week on the too-much-practice story that hit earlier in the season was that they weren't keeping track of the hours last year. That should give the powers that be reason to show RichRod the door. In a way, this reminds me of what Kentucky basketball went through with Billy Gillespie; he wasn't the right fit for the school and lasted two years.
• That begs the question. If RichRod is Billy G, who is Michigan's Calipari? If Notre Dame doesn't grab him first, Brian Kelly of Cincinnati would be my pick. Having some Michigan roots from coaching at CMU and being familiar with the WV spread style of Rodriquez, he'd be a very good coach for Michigan.
• Kelly would also be a good coach for Notre Dame. Charlie Weis might have been a good college coach for the 60s or 70s, but seems a bit too much of a throwback for the 10s. He'll land on his feet, though if they decide to pull the plug; a studio show gig is always a good halfway house for an ousted coach and any number of NFL teams would be interested in him as a coordinator if not a head coach.
• Kentucky had a nice comeback yesterday, storming back from a 20-6 deficit to win at Georgia 34-27, courtesy of three turnovers. It was Kentucky's first win in Athens since the 1970s and actually has them in position to finish second in the SEC East if they can beat Tennesee next week and get out of the Liberty/Music City Bowl rut.
• I remember reading about UGA VII in the summer of 2008 when we had the Russia-Georgia miniwar and joked about them sicking UGA on the South Osettians. Well, he died of heart disease this week before the UK game; did the KGB do him in?
• Could Boise State and TCU both get BCS slots? Possibly. TCU has one at-large slot locked up, as does the SEC runner up. That leaves two to go. Penn State will likely get one of the spots, and the other spot can pick from a 10-2 Pittsburgh (assuming they lose to Cincy), a 10-2 Oklahoma State or a 12-0 Boise State. Iowa can't go if PSU is picked, since there's a two-per-conference quota on BSC slots. In that scenario, the Smuft Turfers might be a more interesting matchup than Pitt or OSU.
• Otherwise it's 12-0, sixth ranked and home for the Humanitarian Bowl. Heads might roll if that happens, and the playoff rumblings that go through Washington every year might get stronger. The BCS folks might want to head off the peasant rebellion and throw Boise a bone.

No I-AA Double-Dipping

I had someone Google in looking for the answer to "why did the northern arizona football game not help ole miss with their bowl eligibility"

Looking at the Reb's schedule, it seems that they scheduled two I-AA (or Football Championship Subdivision in NCAA-speak) clubs this year (SE Louisiana was the other), and you can only count one of them towards the six wins for bowl eligibility. Ole Miss is 6-3 but has to win one more game to be eligible for post-season action. However, they get a short-handed Tennessee team in town Saturday; three Vols got busted for armed robbery in the wee hours of this mornings.

Kentucky has the formula down. They seem to have a recipe of Louisville, two mid-majors (Miami-OH and LA-Monroe this year) and a I-AA club (Eastern Kentucky this year) as their Twinkiesque out-conference schedule. Thus, they can limp into a 2-6 conference record and still be playing a bowl game. Cheesy, but effective.

Ole Miss, they need 7-5, since they went back for seconds on I-AAs.

Strap-Sniffers

Tell me what is wrong with the following passage-

Bengals receiver Chad Ochocinco was fined $10,000 by the NFL on Friday for a uniform violation. The colorful Cincinnati wideout was fined for wearing the wrong colored chin strap (black) during the Bengals' loss to Houston last Sunday.

Also fined $10,000 was Tennessee Titans safety Chris Hope for roughing-the-passer against New England in a 59-0 loss during which Tom Brady threw for six touchdowns.

San Diego rookie linebacker Larry English was fined $7,500 for a horse collar tackle in the Chargers' loss to Denver on Monday night.

Saints linebacker Jonathan Vilma received a $10,000 fine for his helmet-to-helmet hit on Giants quarterback Eli Manning.

Not that 10K will make much of a dent in Ochenta y Cinco's (if we're going Espanol, let's be authentic) wallet, but victimless crimes should get lesser fines that cheap shots.

My suggestion to Ochenta y Cinco... wear the right color strap this week, but instead of a chin strap, make it a jock strap around the chin. You said you were going to do the Ricky Bobby Fire Dance; the ESPN morning guys said that they'd pay the fine if you did that one, so they might cover this one.

Promoting Promotion

Here is an idea that will never happen, but it would be interesting if it did.

In European sports, the bottom teams in the major league of soccer or basketball will get "relegated" to the second-division (the top minor league) while the top teams in the second division will get promoted to the first division. That way, teams at the bottom of the league don't mail in the last third of the season, coast their way to a high draft pick, and trade off their free agents for prospects and draft picks; they fight and claw to stay in the bigs.

My brainstorm would apply that to college football. Let's say we paired the 1A conferences thusly, with a big conference paired with a mid-major; since there are only five-mid majors, I split Conference USA in 2.

Pac 10-WAC

Big 12-Mountain West

Big 10-MAC

ACC- Sun Belt

SEC- Conference USA West

Big East-Conference USA East.

That would see Boise State swap with Washington State and we would see how the Smurf Turfers fare with the big boys for the whole season; probably well enough to keep out of the basemant and let another WACCY team up the next year.

Central Michigan and Illinois would swap and give the Chips a shot at OSU and Penn State. Would CMU be able to hang with Minnesota, Indiana and Northwestern well enough to avoid the cellar and a return trip to the MAC? It would be a very fair fight. Illinois would have to the the favorite for the MAC title the next year, but would have a good Western Michgan club to get past in the MAC West and a solid champ in the East to contend with to win the MAC in 2010.

SMU would, in an awkward fit, join the SEC East and Vandy would get a shot at CUSA. Other than the longer-than-normal road trips, that might actually be a fair trade. SMU, Kentucky and Mississippi State would be in an interesting fight to avoid the cellar in year two. Vandy would be no lock to get right back up.

Baylor heads to the Mountain West and a fairly good program (TCU, BYU or Utah) gets to go head to the mountains. Iowa State might join them the next year as the newcomer might hang with the tough Big 12 south enough to stay around.

The Sun Belt might be road kill in this format, for none of their schools are quite ready for prime time. We'll see the creme of the conference, LA-Monroe in Lexington tomorrow night; they are one of three teams undefeated in conference play, although LA-Lafayette is probably the better bet to win the conference; they managed to beat Kansas State when they paid a call to the bayou earlier this year. I don't see the Sun Belt champ being able to hang with the ACC well, but I could see Duke stay in the Sun  for a while.

The CUSA East isn't anything to write home about this year, but Southern Miss has had some out-conference success, beating Virginia and hanging within a touchdown of Kansas and Louisville. None of the other leading clubs have a big-conference scalp to claim this year. USM could easily hang with the second tier of the Big East, while the celler dweller in the Big East might not escape CUSA quickly.

Thus, other than the Sun Belt, the tops of the mid-majors are good enough to hang with the BCS conferences. We could easily see some movement, as some of the weaker big-conference programs float to mid-major levels for the long haul.

That's an interesting thought experiment that might argue for some modifications to our bowl format.

Ode to a Smurf

The first BCS rankings came out today, and Boise State is in 4th at present. Florida and Georgia are 1-2 with both humans and computers, but the computers have Iowa and Cincinnati in third and fourth, while the humans have Texas and USC in those slots. Everybody has Boise in 5th but that puts them in 4th.

Computers have no memory and no thought to reputation, so human fave USC gets only an 11th in the computer ranking. Arizona and Wisconsin are computer darlings, getting a tie for 14th with the computer and no-shows with the pollsters.

I'm hoping for Texas to lose at least once in the Big 12 to give Boise a shot at the title. The computers will like Boise's win over Oregon, and if the Ducks win the Pac 10, that will make the Smurf Tufters case easier if the pollsters are faced with a 1-2 Florida Alabama match-up come December.

When Michigan and OSU came in 2-1 into their final game match, the pollsters moved Florida into #2 to avoid having a BCS tital game rematch. Would they do likewise this year? We shall see.

Addicted to Spuds, Football Version

Could this be the year a non-power-conference team crashes the title game? Boise State is in great position to do so after Cal lost to Oregon today. Not only does that make Boise's win over the Ducks look all the better, it takes out one of the clubs ahead of them.

Assuming Penn State wins tonight over Iowa (it's 10-5 as I go to press), Boise will move up to #6. Ahead of them is Texas, Penn State and three SEC teams (LSU, Alabama and Florida). A maximum of one of the SEC clubs can go undefeated and if Tim Tebow is more than merely out of gas with the flu after leaving the UK game tonight, all three are likely to come out of SEC play with one loss.

If there are two big-conference undefeateds left standing, they'll likely play for the title. But it's more likely that Boise will run the WAC rather than two of those five running their conferences, and the mid-majors will go ballistic if a 12-1 club gets a slot over a 12-0 BSU.

It's an interesting year where four mid-majors are in the top-20 this early in the season, but schools like Utah and Boise have added to the props of the higher-tier mid-majors. 

Football Musings

Football is back, as the colleges kicked off the regular season with a lot of target-practice games for the big-conference schools. Michigan looked good in their 31-7 spanking of Western Michigan. Rich Rodriguez has not one but two freshman quarterbacks who look very good; Tate Forcier can both run and pass out of the RR spread, and Denard "Shoelace" Robinson is a 4.3-40 bolt of lightning that looks like the second coming of RR's WV QB Pat White.

I'm not sure what to think of the overpracticing story; here's the original Detroit Free Press article. Players are only supposed to have 8 hours of supervised workouts in the offseason and 20 hours during the season and it appears that, if the players are on the up-and-up, they blew through those limits. How much of that extra time was unsupervised might be key; if they put in 20 hours in the weight room but were only supervised for 3, they might be in technical compliance of the rules.

However, like UofM found out two years ago, sometimes the targets shoot back. Iowa nearly had Northern Iowa pull an Appy State on them, having to block UNI game-winners twice in the last seven seconds to save the day. Navy was a two-point-conversion away of going to OT with Ohio State; OSU ran back the conversion pass for a defensive two-pointer. A hard-times Syracuse program, with former Duke PG Greg Paulus starting at QB for the Orange, took Minnesota into OT before falling. 

UK looked very good against Miami, with slash man Randall Cobb running for one score out of a real Wildcat formation and catching another TD. Whether they can hang with the powers in the SEC remains to be seen, but they made short work of Miami in a neutral-site game in Cincy. The game was on ESPN-U, which our cable doesn't have, but I got to see the first quarter during lunch out and the third quarter in the coffee shop of a bookstore; Eileen browsed while I did what any male worth his salt would do ;-).

___________

Here's an interesting thought. Southern K-12 schools tend to do their school year from mid-August through May, getting their first semester done by Christmas; that has been the pattern in Florida, Texas and Kentucky. A football star who can arrange his schedule to get his schooling done in 3.5 years can graduate in December and start college in January. The youngster then gets a full semester and summer term under his belt before football starts in the fall and has gone through spring practice with the team; Tate Forcier was one of the guys who went that route for UofM.

Thus, folks like Forcier can have enough understanding of the system to play as a "true freshman" as opposed to "redshirt freshmen" who practice with the team their freshman year but not play and then have four years of eligibility to go. January starts are sort of pink-shirts; they've got an off-season of practice time in before they start.

Michigan schools are required by law not to start until after Labor Day, which means that the first semester doesn't get done until mid-January, too late to start college early; I was in position to get done in 3.5 years myself, but would be sitting around until summer term or spring quarter in quarter schools, so I took a rather leisurely senior year instead. Michigan footballers can't do that pink-shirt trick.

Stochastic Justice

Michael Vick gets two years for running a dog-fighting ring. Plaxico Burress gets two years for owning an unregistered gun. Donte Stallworth got a month for killing a man while drunk driving.

At minimum, Burress and Stallworth should have their terms flip-flopped; shooting yourself in the leg with a contraband heater isn't as bad as killing someone else while plastered.

This isn't a lack-of-representation issue; all three are well-off (or at least well-paid; Vick spent himself into bankruptcy) athletes who had good lawyers. We have a let-the-punishment-fit-the-crime problem.

What the right punishments are, I'm not sure. Second-amendment mavens would probably like to see Burress free or at best given a misdemeanor charge of reckless use of a firearm.

Wildcats and Dogs, Living Together

Now that Brett Favre has decided to stay retired after teasing the Vikings for most of the summer, the next big item on the training-camp arrival watch is where Michael Vick will wind up. Washington's Jim Zorn says that they're not interested "at this juncture."

Vick is in an interesting situation, where his conditional reinstatement has him sitting out the first two games of the preseason and the first five games of the regular season. Thus, teams may not be interested in having him in as THE quarterback, since it will be week six until he would get to run the show. In addition, since he's been in Club Fed for the '07 and '08 seasons, he has two years worth of rust to shake off, so he might be more of a position of a rookie having to learn the ropes in the NFL.

However, where he might shine is as a specialty option, bringing him in off the bench to run a spread option attack. He'd be an interesting pickup for one of Miami's AFC East rivals, for he could run the Wildcat in practice and replicate what either Ronnie Brown or rookie Pat White (who's being marketed as a WR in the pros, but would be perfect for the Wildcat, having run a version of it at WV) would do for the Dolphins. Even before he takes the field, he'd be an asset for the Patriots, Jets or Bills on the scout team.

New England would be a good spot for Vick in 2009. There is no question that Tom Brady is the quarterback, so Vick would be reserved for either conversion to WR, running the occasional Wildcat look to get defensive coordinators one more thing to need Maalox for, or anything else that needs doing. Or, if Brady does get hurt again, they could do worse for a backup QB.

Does Vick deserve a second chance? As much as anybody does. He served prison time and turning him into a construction worker isn't the highest and best use of his skills.

Dogs versus Human

We're in mad-dogs-and-Englishmen weather in Lexington today, but it's my between-terms break and Eileen's between jobs, so we're at the library this Friday afternoon after a late lunch.

However, that's not the dogs in the title; it's the dogs Michael Vick and his Bad Newz posse killed off and got Vick two years at Club Fed. He's finishing up his time under house arrest and working a $10/hour construction job until he's freed up in late July. At that point, the NFL will have to figure out whether two years in prison and away from football is punishment enough or whether he will continue to be barred from the NFL.

The human in the title is the Mario Reyes, the Miami man that Cleveland wideout Donte Stallworth killed while driving home drunk from a party. Stallworth got merely a one-month jail term and a truckload of community service and a lifetime driving ban for his transgressions. That seems rather low, since the other sports-related killer DUI that comes to mind, that of Olympic diver Bruce Kimball, had Kimball getting a 17-year sentence (of which he served five) for the DUI-accident killing of two kids in 1988.

What's worse, killing a man by accident or killing dogs by design? Of course, you won't have PETH (People for the Ethical Treatment of Humans) protesting in front of the Dawgpound in Cleveland if Stallworth is back in uniform later this year or in 2010, but heaven help the team who has the grace and guts to give Michael Vick a job; PETA will be on them like white on rice. They're even ticked about President Obama swatting a fly during an interview. MADD might make a mild stink over Stallworth, but nowhere near the wrath that Vick's new team will get.

Both Vick and Stallworth are indefinitely suspended, but if Stallworth is back in uniform before Vick is, it shows where the league values human life versus canine life.

Note that I think both should be allowed back into the league if they've learned their lesson and are willing and able to be good citizens, but our justice system is a bit out of whack with this pair. There are plenty of other pairs you can use, like the casual drug user getting umpteen years while the rapist who gets a few months, but this is one that is front and center on the sports page.

Pirate Radio

"Bucs to Release Brooks and Dunn." Even Tampa Bay has gone country, getting into the Nashville scene in a big way.

Oh, they're letting go of Warrick Dunn and Derrick Brooks, not releasing a country-pop album? I guess Brooks and Dunn will be singing Life is a Highway as they make their way through Malfunction Junction on their way out of town, even though it was Rascall Flatts that did the Cars cover version.

"I See Your Schwartz is as Big as Mine"

Now let's see how the Lions handle their Schwartz. Jim Schwartz, that is; the Titan defensive coordinator just got the top job.

Of course, if we're doing a Spaceballs shtick, we've need to discuss MegaMaid and the operation has been in effect in Detroit for years..."Suck, suck, suck."

Well, he has nowhere to go but up and has a #1 draft pick to play with, as well as Dallas' #20 pick overall. That will give them three of the top 33 picks overall.

Detroit needs a good QB, but I don't see the crop of available QBs this year to be #1 overall good. I'm not all that impressed with Matthew Stafford or Mark Sanchez at that level, although either would look good in Honolulu blue and silver if the pulled a Brady Quinn and stayed on the board at #20. Otherwise, they might be able to snag Javon Ringer with that #20 pick and see who's on the board at the top of the second round for a QB prospect.

Of course, this is the area where the non-ball-handling (a.k.a. "non-skill" as if linemen don't have any) positions come to play where the casual fan is at a loss to critique offensive linemen and most defensive players. I'm not a draftnik and don't have the time to become one.

Sanchez seems to be making the right move. The 2010 draft will be loaded at QB, with McCoy, Bradford and Tebow all in the mix along with any other QBs finishing their junior or senior year that might make a move up the pecking order. He's probably be the fourth or fifth QB on the board next year, while he'll be #2 or so this year.

Plus, he'll be done with his undergrad work in May. He'll get a better football education as a pro QB than with another year at USC, not to mention one that pays better. He can work on an MBA online if we wants another year of school.

18-1

I don't think that it was the greatest Super Bowl game ever. There have been better games; the Tennessee-St Louis SB36 that had the Titans coming up just short on a last-minute drive, or San Francisco-Cincy SB23 when Joe Montana engineered a classic last-minute drive come quickly to my mind. The Giants-Bills SB25, where Buffalo's Scott Norwood just missed what would have been a game-winner, was another classic.

Even though it was a blowout, the Bears-Pats SB20 game was neat, crowning a great 18-1 Super Bowl Shuffle Bear team that included a lot a characters, including a Refrigerator Perry TD at short-yardage fullback. I recall the following year's Bud Bowl, where the bottle team brought out a quart-size short-yardage fullback, "the Appliance of Defiance, the... Freezer!"

As a game, this would filter down to about #5 in my mind. As a definitional game, it may be one of the most important; the Jet's win in SB3 was about the only one that was more iconic. It brought the 18-0 Patriots, on target to be the Best Team Ever^TM, down a notch; Belichick didn't win his fourth Super Bowl, denying both he and Tom Brady fully iconic status.

It's not that New England isn't a good team, but there merely a good team. They caught lighting in a bottle on offense, rolling the dice to bring in Randy Moss at fire-sale prices and found possession receiver Wes Welker cheap as well. Take those two away and New England is likely 13-3 and one of many possible AFC title contenders.

Last night, the Giant front four played like the terrorizing LT-led teams of the late 80s-early 90s (run by a young defensive coordinator named Bill Belichick), sacking Brady five times. Eli Manning played well enough to win, joining Phil Simms and Jeff Hostetler as underwealming Giant QBs to manage their way to a title.

The better team doesn't always win and the best players don't always carry the day. David Tyree came out of nowhere to catch a TD pass and grab a key jump ball reception on the final drive; he was their #4 WR at best, more of a special teams maniac than a receiver.

I'll get to the ads later.

January Madness

UGA president Michael Adams has come out in favor of an eight-team playoff. I think 8 would be the right number, especially if it would placate the four current BCS bowls by having them host the quarterfinals. He could get his brother Douglas in the act and have him write The Hitchhikers' Guide to January Madness ;-).

You could go with 16 teams, with all eleven I-A conference champs and five at-larges getting bids, but there would be quite a bit of road kill in the first round. Central Michigan-LSU, Troy-Ohio State and Central Florida-Virginia Tech  (the 2-15, 1-16 and 3-14 match ups if we did it this year) could get decided really quick, although UCF did give Texas all they wanted in September.

You'd also have a glut of eight first-round games; do you play four on Friday night and four on Saturday? Two on Thursday, two on Friday and four on Saturday?

Here's my original proposal from 2002. It looks pretty good and could be taken as a model.

(1) Turn the four BCS bowls into the quarterfinals of a national tournament. Keep the remaining bowls, since they don't play into the national title anyway. They're the NIT for football.

(2) Seed the teams 1-8,2-7,3-6,4-5. Where possible given the seeding, place the teams in their traditional bowl spot (i.e. placing the Southeast Champ in the Sugar Bowl, the PAC 10 or Big 10 champ in the Rose).

That looks good, but I might offer an addendum that a lower seed shouldn't be allowed to have a home or proto-home game in the first round. For instance, if a 9-3 Miami is the seventh seed, it shouldn't be allowed to play #2 Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl, or a #6 seeded LSU shouldn't be allowed to play #3 Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl.

(3) Seeding will be based on something like the current BCS model. I'm open to tweaking, but the general model's OK.

(4) The six power-conference (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big Twelve, Pac 10, Southeast) champs get automatic bids and the two highest ranked remaining teams get the at-large bids. The bowls don't get to choose a 11th ranked Notre Dame over a 7th ranked Directional State for the ratings and good-traveling alumni.

(5) An exception to #4-any undefeated team gets an automatic bid. Call this the Marshall-Tulane rule. OK, I have degrees from two MAC schools (BS CMU, Ph.D. Kent State); I have a soft spot for the mid-majors.  If there are three undefeated teams outside of the power conferences, the top two ranked ones go.

I have an update to #5; I want to change that to use the current BCS rule where a mid-major in the top 12 (or the top 16 but better than one of the automatic bids) gets an automatic bid. This year, Georgia and Hawaii would get the two at-large spots. Utah and Boise State showed in past years that they could win a first round game in our tournament, even though Hawaii got plastered by Georgia this year.

Here's how the seeding would look for 2007-

Rose Bowl (1) Ohio State vs (8) Hawaii
Fiesta Bowl (4) Oklahoma vs (5) Georgia
Sugar Bowl (2) LSU vs (7) West Virginia
Orange Bowl (3) Virginia Tech vs (6) USC

(6) Play three of the four bowls on New Years Day as a triple-header (Fiesta 1PM, Rose 4:30PM, Orange 8PM) and put the fourth (I'll suggest the Sugar) on New Years Eve.
All the other New Years Day bowls will move to other days.

That makes New Year's Day's real "Must See TV" for the sports fan, and makes it a major event.

I don't care for the new method, where they dribble out the BCS bowls, with the Rose and another bowl on New Years, another on the 2nd and another on the 3rd. That, along with the overdose of games in the early part of New Years Day, where things feel like a good Saturday afternoon during the season rather than a major event, need to be overhauled.

The old-school New Years Day had the Cotton Bowl go about 1PM, the Rose about 5 and the Orange and Sugar about 8:30. Time for some retro, except the Fiesta becomes the new Cotton.

(7) Play the semifinals the Saturday of the NFL conference finals, usually the third Saturday in January, at two pre-determined neutral sites. Tampa and St. Louis for starters?

(8) Play the finals the next Saturday at a pre-determined neutral site. RCA Dome in Indy for starters?

This will raise revenue, since sports fans will lean towards watching all seven of the games. The bowls will have more revenue than the old system ,since each of the four games is a factor in the national title. Right now, the typical fan might watch the title game and the game that his favorite conference champ is in, but the other two games will have lower ratings since they're just a football game.

The plan gives a clear champion. It changes the bubble equation so that teams #9 and #10 are griping about being left out, not teams #3 and #4.

The one downside is that it will extend the season a game for four teams and by two games for a pair of teams. This is happening at the beginning of a semester rather than at towards the end where the Final Four play five or six games over three weeks. That seems a reasonable price to pay for the advantages of the tourney.

The NCAA Football tournament will have more viewership than the current BCS, for every game will mean something. It won't detract from other bowls, since they don't have any bearing on the title anyway. It will extend the season a bit for four teams, but that is a reasonable price to pay to get a champion.

Cradle of Coaches 2.0?

Last year, MSU went and raided Cincinnati's Mark Dantonio. Cincy then took it out on the Great Lake State by raiding Central Michigan coach Brian Kelly.

This year, it's Michigan's turn, snagging Rich Rodriguez from West Virginia. West Virginia then takes it out on the state of Michigan by potentially snagging Central Michigan coach Butch Jones.

Can you guys let my alma mater have a decent coach for a while?

You want to coach in the Big East? Mount Pleasant seems to be a good place to start these days. Miami used to be the MAC's "cradle of coaches" seeing former head coaches Woody Hayes (Ohio State), Bo Schembechler (Michigan), Ara Parseghian (Notre Dame) and Sid Gilman (LA Rams and SD Chargers) move on to fame elsewhere. However, CMU seems to be starting to get that status as of late.

If Jones does get the WV gig, he left town after a doozy; the Chippewas gave Purdue all they wanted, coming back from a 41-20 deficit with three unanswered TDs to tie it at 41-41. After a Purdue TD, CMU came back to tie it again at 48-48 with a minute left, only to have Purdue march down to win it 51-48.

CMU will be interesting next year; QB Dan LeFevour just missed matching Tim Tebow's 20-20 season, ending with only 19 rushing TDs and 27 passing TDs; he also became only the second quarterback to have 3000 yards passing and 1000 yards rushing in a season. A 14-game season doesn't hurt, but those are still impressive stats.

LeFevour's just a sophomore. If CMU goes 11-1 or so next year with those kind of numbers (I haven't seen their 2008 sked, but that might be feasible) he might have a shot at getting an invite to the Heisman show next year.

He might have to break in yet another head coach in the process, though.

Tigers and Hawgs

I got a Clemson fan with the nom-de-cyber of "withheld" out of the woodwork to take issue with my take that "Arkansas may have a better football pedigree than Clemson"

Arkansas has a better pedigree than Clemson? Same number of NCAA championships (ark '64) but Clemson ('81) won theirs more recently.

I may recall the Frank Broyles era and give it a tad too much weight. I don't remember '64 but I do remember a "Game of the Century" match in 1969 where Texas and Arkansas came in 1-2 and both undefeated in the last game of the regular season, not unlike last year's Michigan-Ohio State. Texas came out on top, but Arkansas-UT was the Southwest's Michigan-OSU analog for this Big Ten area kid in the 70s.

For some reason, Clemson's one good year seemed more of an outlier, a great year from a good program. My quick take was that that Arkansas has had a higher average poll rating that Clemson over the last quarter-century; at least that's what my mind assumes.

Here's the data since 1981, using the AP's final poll results-

 

Final AP Rating	Clemson	Arkansas
1981	1
1982	8	9
1983	11
1984
1985		12
1986	17	15
1987	12
1988	9	12
1989	12	13
1990	9
1991	18
1992
1993	23
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998		16
1999		17
2000	16
2001
2002
2003	22
2004
2005	21
2006		15

Clemson actually had a good run in the late 80s and early 90s, having top-20 showings from '86 to '91. Since then, Clemson has been in the top 25 4 times and Arkansas 3. That would put them roughly on par.

It might be that I have a cold spot towards South Carolina, which with the possible exception of Mississippi, seems to be the most regressive state in the country, where nativism and protectionism seems to be the coin of the realm. It might be Yankee bias, but I had a hard time feeling at home in SC when I've visited, more so than other places in the south; there just seemed to be a sense of darkness that I found uncomfortable.

It also could be that Florida State has so owned the ACC until recently that the clubs behind them like Clemson looked like chumps in comparison, whereas Arkansas has frequently been in the hunt for the SEC West title.

What it is, is College Football

I don't think I've ever seen quite the pile-up we have at the top of the college football rankings. We've never seen any team with two losses win a national title. The closest in myh lifetime was a 11-1-1 Colorado, who was co-champ with a 11-0-1 Georgia Tech in 1990.

However, there's a doggone good chance that that will happen in 2007 after yet another Saturday Night Massacre of top-ranked teams. Both #1 Missouri and #2 West Virginia lost last night, leaving Ohio State, 11-1 "in the clubhouse" to back into to a trip to New Orleans for the title game; it didn't look like OSU would have a shot of filtering back up to the top after losing to Illinois in their next-to-last game.

11-1 Kansas would be a traditional pick for the other spot in the title game if the voters are allergic of voting for an X-and-2 team into the title game. However, they had a cupcake out-conference schedule (not that cupcakey-they beat MAC champ Central Michigan) and didn't get to play in their title game.

After that, you pick your poison. 11-2 LSU would be a lock for the title game if they didn't have overtime; they'd be 11-0-2 and still #1 were that the case. The AP has them in as the #2 team, with Oklahoma and Georgia in a near-dead heat for third. One brave soul cast a first-place vote for Hawaii, who managed to get through their cream puff slate undefeated with a come-from-behind win over Washington.

There's going to be a lot of scheming by the various bowls.

Georgia might get an automatic bid; if you're in the top 4, you get an automatic bid and they're #4 in the AP. Since you can't get three bids from the same conference, Florida might get stuck playing Michigan or Illinois in the What's-in-your-wallet Bowl.

Does the Rose Bowl go traditional and nab #13 Illinois to replace OSU? Or do they go for a good national draw and pick West Virginia? Pat White (if his hand's good to go) versus the Trojans would get my attention on New Year's day. Georgia is rated #4, but they aren't that compelling a story to get to watch; plus, the Sugar would want Georgia to replace LSU and the Rose can't snag an SEC team without the Sugar's consent, since the SEC is their conference tie-in.

My guesses

Title Game-OSU-LSU
Rose-Illinois-USC
Sugar-Georgia-Hawaii
Fiesta-Oklahoma-Kansas
Orange-Virginia Tech-West Virginia

The Fiesta might like to have either Kansas, to make an all-Big 12 match that never happened, or Arizona State, but there is only two unspoken for spots if Georgia finishes #4 and LSU finishes #2. Hawaii gets one if they're in the top 12, which looks likely, so that leaves two slots unspoken for. Illinois would be the first, and if the Orange goes with Kansas, the Fiesta would be stuck choosing between West Virginia and Hawaii.

If the Orange went with Kansas, the Fiesta could go with ASU for a local draw but not a lot of tourism, or Kansas,  bringing enough Rock Chalk to line the Cactus League fields for years.

A Little Wild Hog After the Turkey

An interesting news day. Let's start with the fun stuff; I just caught the tail-end of a doozy, where Arkansas managed to get past #1 LSU in Baton Rouge, 50-48 in 3OT. Book Darren McFadden into New York for the Heisman ceremony (he may not win it, but he should be in the top 3-5 that they bring in), with a 200 yard rushing day, 3 rushing TDs and a passing TD coming out of the "Wild Hog" single wing set with Mac-F at QB.

I'm not old enough to remember the single wing as a going offense, but a lot of the shotgun option sets (WV, Oregon when Dixon was healthy, Arkansas' Wild Hog) that are the current rage look a lot like the old single wing from pre-WWII.

It was before my time, but the 49ers introduced the shotgun as a running set in 1961, trading away an immobile Y.A. Tittle to have a young Billy Kilmer (he of the wounded duck passes for the 70s Redskins) run things. As I recall the story, San Francisco gave the league fits trying to defend this new beast, until they had to play Chicago and their owner-coach George Halas, who goes so far back, he had the record for longest fumble return, running back a Jim Thorpe drop in 1923.

Halas was so old, he noted that the new-fangled shotgun was nothing more than a modified single wing. He got out his old defensive playbooks and proceeded to shut out the 49ers in their meeting, 31-0. By 1962, the league had caught up and the 49er QBs were too hurt to run that offense, so the shotgun got shelved until Dallas brought it back in the early 70s as a passing-down set.

Now we have college programs bringing back that shotgun-single-wing set. I think Halas would have had his hands full dealing with McFadden or WV's Pat White. However, I'm not sure if a QB could survive NFL-level defenses for a full season running a Wild Hog set.

Big Easy Island Warriors

Here's an interesting dilemma that the college football folks are in; Hawaii may back into a BSC bid if they make the top 14, not the top 12 that people generally site. Here's a rundown of the BSC rules.

Discussion of Hawaii's BCS chances generally flow around the mid-major rule-

3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:  
A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

Currently, Hawaii is 15th in the BCS and all the projected conference champs are ahead of it in the rankings. UConn (currently #20) could change that if they beat West Virginia, but the other conference leaders are all in the top 14.

However, one of the rules that people forget could come into play; only two teams per conference can get a BCS bid. Here's the current BCS ratings and my projections of who'll be playing in what bowl. For sake of argument, we'll have the favored teams win out, as West Virginia gets the Big East tile and LSU, Kansas and VT win their conference title games.

BCS Ranking	School	Projected Bowl
1	LSU	Title Game
2	Kansas	Title Game
3	West Virginia	Fiesta as Replacement choice
4	Missouri	Orange as at large
5	Ohio State	Rose
6	Arizona State	Rose
7	Georgia	Sugar as Replacement choice
8	Virginia Tech	Orange
9	Oregon	(3rd Pac 10)-Holiday Bowl
10	Oklahoma	(3rd Big 12)-Cotton Bowl
11	USC	Fiesta as at large
12	Florida	(3rd SEC)-Citrus (a.k.a. Cap1) Bowl
13	Texas	(4th Big 12)-Sun Bowl
14	Boston College	Sugar as at Large
15	Hawaii
16	Virginia
17	Illinois

Firstly, the top two teams automatically get to go to the championship game. Next, the Orange Bowl gets the ACC champ, the Sugar gets the SEC champ, the Fiesta gets the Big 12 champ and, as traditional since the 40s, the Rose gets the Big 10 and Pac 10 champs.

However, the Sugar and Fiesta will have been raided by the championship game. The bowl that got the #1 team raided gets first pick of replacements; the Sugar will be likely to keep an SEC tie-in and pick Georgia. Tennessee might be the conference runner-up if they can beat UK up here in Lexington Saturday for the SEC East title, but a 9-4 Vol team would likely be outside of the top 14; they're currently 18th and would require a win over LSU to crack the top 14.

The Sugar could ruffle some Bulldog feathers by picking Florida instead of Georgia; in this crazy year where the leading teams have no clear Heisman candidates, Tim Tebow might back into the trophy with his stat-sheet-stuffing season. The Gators would make more compelling TV than Georgia.

Next, the Fiesta would get second pick, replacing Kansas. I don't know how strong the Fiesta-Big 12 tie is, but if I were picking for the Fiesta, I'd snag West Virgina and their high-powered offense as my first pick rather than Missouri or Oklahoma. That would make for better TV than Missouri.

Then, the three bowls with at-large slots will pick. This year, it goes Orange, Fiesta and Sugar. The Orange would likely take Missouri. They're currently #4 but could slide to #6 after losing to Kansas, but they would be a stronger pick than the alternatives on the board; plus, the Orange used to have a Big 8 tie in and this would bring back an old Big 8 team. Don't be surprised if they opt for USC instead, however.

The Fiesta gets the next pick. #9 Oregon is the highest team on the board, but with lame Duck QB Dennis Dixon out with a blown ACL, #11 USC looks to be a better pick. You get the Trojan mythos, good traveling fans from just down the road in LA and a more compelling matchup than WV-Oregon.

At this point, Oregon, Oklahoma, Florida and Texas are off limits, since their conferences have already gotten their two-team quota. It then falls to #14 Boston College to fill the Sugar Bowl spot. They're the only choice, since bowls can only choose from the top 14.

Big question... will BC still be #14 if they lose to Virginia Tech in the ACC title game?

If not, the boys from the islands are sitting at #15 and likely to move up a spot, especially when they dispatch the Smurf Turfers from #19 Boise State and get a boost in the computer rankings. Then, Hawaii would be #14 and the only game in town for the Sugar Bowl.

Otherwise, bring on Sulik's suggestion "Texas Tech v. Hawai'i: a.k.a. the Paul Westhead Bowl." First one to 100 wins, kicking the extra points left-footed in honor of Hank Gathers.

Tiger, Tiger

This is one of the weirdest college football seasons on record. In the recent past, it was the Nebraska-Colorado game on Black Friday that would determine the Big 12 north champ, being a decent methadone for losing the Nebraska-Oklahoma Big 8 season-ender via expansion. If you told us in August that Missouri-Kansas would be the game of the year, and not just the week, we'd want to get the name of your supplier, for that's some potent weed you were knocking down.

However, we've got #2 and undefeated Kansas going up against 10-1 and #3 Mizzou on Friday. If the winner of that game can get past the Southern division champ, they have their ticket punched for the national title game. If Missouri wins the Big 12, there is an excellent chance that the Tigers will win the national title. It could be the Missouri Tigers or the LSU Tigers, but things will look good for feline mascots.

#5 Ohio State is even still in the mix. A Oklahoma or Texas win in the Big 12 final will take out both Missouri and Kansas from consideration, although a 12-1 Kansas might have a case for a slot in the final.

#1 LSU still has to get past a dangerous Arkansas team with Darren McFadden making one last bid for Heisman consideration and the SEC title game against either Tennessee or Georgia, so the guys from Baton Rouge might think twice before planning to head down to NOLA for the title game. Top 5 teams have been beat by unranked foes 11 times, from Appy State to Texas Tech's win over Oklahoma yesterday; the Hogs would be happy to make that an even dozen this weekend.

#4 West Virgina gets both UConn and Pitt coming to Morgantown, neither of which are pushovers, especially when the Huskies can pull of one of the great out-of-nowhere years in college football history with a win. A UConn-Hawaii Orange Bowl? That's one that would have required multiple bong hits to predict this summer.

One of the teams ahead of OSU has to lose in the Kansas City Rumble Friday. If three of them do, OSU will likely be skipping the Rose Bowl.

"Orange Bowl? Looks Yellow to Me"

They're planning to tear down the Orange Bowl after the football season; Miami U is going to be playing at the Dolphins' stadium next year and the namesake bowl is already out there. Here's a bracing paragraph-

The city is soliciting offers for the demolition and sale of memorabilia, Gilbert Cabrera, Hernandez' chief of staff, told the Herald. Memorabilia from the OB -- including the urinals -- is expected to go on sale early in 2008 and help defray the cost of demolition, estimated between $5 million and $7 million.

Old stadium seats are major memorabilia; The Corner's John Millers recent acquisition of two Tiger Stadium seats came quickly to mind.

That being said, what twisted soul is going to buy an Orange Bowl urinal? A conversation piece, to be sure, but I'm not sure I want to be part of that conversation.

Futbol Sabado

An interesting day in college football. A little history was done a few miles up US-27, as UK took out #9 Louisville in a 40-34 thriller. It broke a four game winning streak for UL over UK and was the first time in three decades that Kentucky beat a top-10 club. This may be the first time in a while that UK has a better football team than a basketball team; they're 3-0 and could be a factor in the SEC.

Another big thud came out in Salt Lake City, as Utah beat up on #11 UCLA, 44-6. After losing to Oregon State and Air Force, this wasn't looking like the Ute team that made the BCS dance a few years back.

However, anything can happen on any given Saturday, ask Michigan. Or Texas, who went in to dedicate Central Florida's new on-campus stadium, and came out by the skin of their teeth, 35-32; the former central Floridian in me was happy to see UCF give Texas a game, and also see USF go into Auburn and win last week.

Speaking of Michigan, it was hardly the Maize and Blow Chunks that showed up the last two Saturdays. They looked like a classic Michigan team, taking care of business by shutting out Notre Dame, 38-0. I goofed earlier in the week; the game was in Ann Arbor, but Touchdown Jesus might have smelled it from South Bend. If they did college football like they do European soccer, Appalachian State would move up to I-A and the 0-3 "Fighting" Irish would be in danger of being relegated to I-AA and taking on Delaware and Youngstown State next year.

Michigan State managed to move to an unimpressive 3-0, but at least they're 3-0. Iowa lost to Iowa State; Kent State managed to beat ISU earlier in the year. Speaking of my most recent alma mater, it felt weird driving around Frankfort this afternoon and passing Kentucky State University, an impostor KSU. Of course, the Kansas State fans in the crowd (Baggy-slims, take a bow if you're lurking) can claim that both Kent State and Kentucky State are squatters on the KSU turf.

Beware the Twinkies. Michigan had Appy State reach up and bite them, and Minnesota fell to Florida Atlantic. At least the Gophers got a nice trip to Miami, losing to a school whose previous football claim to fame was a big brawl with U of Miami last year.

Applalachian Fall

OK, Aaron Copeland's rolling over in his grave, but I had to use something along those lines after Appalachian sprung an upset on Michigan last weekend.

Michigan proceeded to plummet from #5 all the way out of the top 25. As the defending I-AA (or Championship Subdivision as rechristened by the NCAA) champion, ASU isn't eligible for votes in the big poll, but are a unanimous #1 in the I-AA poll.

What does that bode for the Maize and Blow Chunks Blue? They're out of the national title hunt. 11-1 (or even 10-2 or 9-3 with the right tie-breakers) would get them a Rose Bowl bid, but there are likely going to be two teams that are undefeated or have a more compelling 11-1 or 12-1 record come December. A 12-1 SEC champ would be one that would trump an 11-1 Michigan, as likely would a 12-1 ACC or Big 12 champ.

However, there is hope for the Wolverines. They've suffered early losses to Notre Dame in the past and made it to the Rose Bowl. Yes, Appalachian State isn't Notre Dame, but it might be Miami... of Ohio.

Hop into the Wayback Machine if you would. Sherman, set the timer for 1995.

Football, Footise and Forgiveness

The old saw is that there are no atheists in foxholes. Or in the defendant's chair, it seems. Michael Vick seems to have drawn close to the Lord in his current travail. Or at least, that his stand in public.

I'm remembering a scene from the last Indiana Jones movie, where Indy is making his way through numerous booby traps to get to the Grail. One marker on the wall mentions something to the effect that "only a penitent man will pass." Indy says something like "penitent, penitent... on your knees" and then drops to the floor, just before blades slice through about normal chest-height above him.

For some folks, like Indy, dropping to your knees isn't about devotion to God, but survival. The only way they see to get out of their predicament is to at least appear holier than they were before everything hit the fan.

Turning to God in their time of need is sometimes also a honest answer to the problem, since folks with a church background know what they need to do, but were unwilling to do so when things were going good. Now that they have their back to the wall, devotion to a God who can help seems like a good plan.

We'll see if Vick walks the walk over the next few years, through his stint in Club Fed and afterwards. If bling-infested characters like Deion Sanders can find the Lord; there's hope for Michael Vick....

______

...and Larry Craig as well. My new Senator, Mitch McConnell, has his theology screwed up. According to the Lexington Herald-Leader, he has Craig's behavior down as "unforgivable."

Last I checked, the one unforgivable sin is blaspheming the Holy Spirit. Playing footsie with the guy in the stall next to you, even with the intent of illicit sex, is forgivable. Maybe not politically forgivable, but spiritually at least.

McConnell doesn't have the ability to Mitch-slap you into eternal damnation; he might help get Craig expelled from the Senate, but he doesn't have the power to deny forgiveness. He lost that power back when the Democrats took over :-).

Bad Newz Baron

Is Michael Vick on the verge of being the Pete Rose of the NFL? The way I'm reading Goodell's letter to the Bad Newz baron, he might have trod the field of an NFL stadium for the last time after his plea of yesterday. The new commissioner has been a hanging judge, giving Pacman Jones a year off for merely getting into multiple brushes with the law without a conviction; this could well mimic Rose's lifetime ban with the possibility of parole down the line.

Vick will likely be a guest of Club Fed for the 2007 and 2008 seasons, and possibly 2009, depending on how harsh the judge is and when his sentence starts. If he starts a 18 month sentence sometime this fall, he'll be a free man early in 2009.

Forget about the CFL. He'll be a convicted felon on probation, so the folks in the Great White North are unlikely to bring him on board as a "landed immigrant," even if his running style would fit in well for the wide-field format. Red Wing enforcer Bob Probert had difficulty getting back into the NHL after a drug bust; it's hard for a felon to get permission to travel internationally, which made it hard for Probert to make Canadian away games.

Does the NFL bring him back? If he's been a model citizen, possibly. He'll need 2009 to prove that, and be in position to be reinstated for the 2010 season. One of the things that keeps Charlie Hustle from getting back in MLB's good graces is that he hasn't really been fully repentant of his gambling days. If Vick turns his back to the Bad Newz (which was the nickname for the area of Newport News he grew up in) attitude and does a lot of good works once he's out of the slammer, he might get Goodell, or whoever's sitting in that chair in the spring of 2010, to give him a second chance.

He'll likely be a free agent, since Goddell has given Atlanta the green light to go after a pro-rated share of his signing bonus for breech of contract, then release him. However, he'll be 30 and away from football for three years, and he wasn't the greatest QB on the planet to begin with; the most athletic, to be sure, but not the greatest.  He'll also have the baggage of having the dog lovers and animal-rights protesters camping out at his new team, assuming Vick hasn't repented enough for their tastes.

However, that level of talent is hard to ignore, especially at the fire-sale price he'll likely work for after his stint in gaol. If he's a good citizen and has convinced Goodell that he's no longer a threat to the league's integrity, some team will give him a chance.

Who Let The Dogs In?

After his co-defendants made plea deals, it seemed only a matter of time before Michael Vick bit the bullet and pleaded himself.

I don't have a good link to the piece, but their was a sports op-ed in today's dead tree Herald-Leader that tried to point the finger at society at large for not raising Vick right and giving him the long leash that allowed him to apply the nasty leash to his dawgs. That seemed a bit trite, but there is a little bit that resonates in that charge.

Part of the appeal of football is the hard contact; nothing makes a highlight reel faster than a good "decleater." Stepping further down the violence scale is boxing. A notch further is the mixed-martial-arts few-holds-barred brawls that are a growth industry on cable TV. However, when humans are involved, we're limited to only beating the other guy to a pulp.

If you want to see real gore, you're going to have to get animals involved, since killing people tends to draw the local constabulary real quick.

No, not every football fan is three steps away from enjoying canine snuff films, but a bit of that taste for violence coupled with a lack of empathy for others can lead folks in that direction. Thankfully, things like Vick's endeavors aren't all that easy to find.

How to Make a Small Fortune in Alternative Pro Football

Start with a big fortune like Mark Cuban's; it will get small in a hurry.

UFL. Wasn't that a Weird Al movie? No, it's a proposed football league slated to start in the fall of '08, with Cuban set to own a Vegas franchise. The last three tries to have a second league haven't worked.

The WFL of the 70s did take advantage of the lack of free agency in the NFL and lured stars like Larry Czonka, but lacked the revenues to pay the big salaries. The USFL of the 80s made a run at survivability, looking at first to work on a budget, but their desire to go toe-to-toe with the NFL rather than stick with a spring-summer schedule spelled their demise; they gave us quite a few future stars like Reggie White, Steve Young, Doug Flutie, and Michigan Panther QB Bobby Hebert. The WWF-flavored XFL was all sizzle and little steak, remembered more for Jesse Ventura's color commentary and Rod "He Hate Me" Smart than for anything on the field.

The UFL is heading to virgin (or at least NFL-unattached) territory, with proposed teams in LA, Las Vegas and Mexico City. There are a number of other big cities that could support a pro team. San Antonio had a trial run as the home of the Saints post-Katrina and could support a pro football team. Memphis would be another place that could do well; they didn't do too well as the temporary home of the Oilers/Titans, but might shine to an UFL club. Orlando, Columbus, something in the northeast, and possibly a couple of Canadian cities might be other prospects. That might be enough, for 8-10 teams might do just fine for starters.

There's always folks available after the season starts that are quality players. The Fox piece has UFL co-founder Bill Hambrecht stating that "Bill Walsh used to tell me that the last 20 players cut from every team were almost interchangeable with the last 20 players to make the team." If that's true, you have about 600 NFL-quality players unemployed when the Turk comes a-calling in late August.

That would be enough to staff a 10-team UFL, and the Turk would have to be cutting more marginal NFL players, since some of the second stringers would be candidates for the UFL.

We've had three bombs of alternative leagues in the last 30 years, but the previous two major tries, the AAFC and the AFL, were successful. The AFL fully merged with the NFL and the AAFC had a few of its better clubs, including the 49ers and the original Browns, absorbed by the NFL.

Will the UFL give us Marion Motley and Lou Groza or He Hate Me? I think it'll be more the latter, but Mark Cuban is a smart guy and I wouldn't be too quick to bet against him.

[Update 12:30AM 5/31-Here's an ESPN piece from this evening; the UFL is shooting for a 8-team start. The piece almost looks like it was cribbing from my post, talking about Larry Czonka and the WFL, Jim Kelly, Reggie White and Steve Young (I missed Kelly and added Flutie and Hebert) for the USFL and He Hate Me for the XFL.

They got the history wrong prior to that-"There have been numerous leagues that have tried to compete with the NFL and a few that actually played games, starting with the AFL, which began in 1960 and fully merged with the NFL a decade later." They missed the AAFC. That shows that they weren't cribbing, just drawing upon the same general thoughts of the alternative leagues of the past.]

[Update 1:15AM 5/31-An Orlando-area guy has already started up a UFL news blog. Ain't the quickness of blogs grand? He links to this post, agreeing with my San Antonio take. I'd be surprised if Orlando didn't get a team, for it's the best non-NFL city in the southeast and has a NFL-caliber stadium in the Citrus Bowl; they were third on my list of additional cities behind San Antonio and Memphis.]

SEC Supremacy

I'm packing it in a bit early, but as I go to press, Florida is beating up on OSU, 34-14 and knocking on the door for another score early in the fourth quarter. Urban warfare seems to be hard to stop, but what was the most impressive was how they shut down Troy Smith and the Buckeye offense.

Is there something to the saw that the SEC is so strong, Florida didn't look as good as they are. Well, when it got started, they brought Joe Kennedy on board, since he knew every trick in the financial book and wrote a few of the chapters. An old MSU finance prof of mine quipped that when Kennedy took on financial partners, they had money and he had experience; when they were done, he had money and they had an experience.

However, even after decades of figuring out how to slow down insider trading and other shenanigans, we're still seeing the sharpies stay one step ahead of the SEC. The problem with that is that I'm still figuring out how Urban Meyer's offense relates to the stock market.

Oh, the Southeastern Conference, that SEC. With powerhouse programs at LSU, Auburn, Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia and Florida, each side of the SEC goes three deep. Alabama and South Carolina are tough outs and even some of the bottom-rung schools like Kentucky and Ole Miss can reach up and bite the big boys on any given Saturday. That's even going to get tougher with Saban's move to Bama.

Yes, it's going to be rather hard for anyone to go 13-0 through that brier patch. However, whoever gets out and wins the SEC title these days will be the nastiest 12-1 in college football and the odds-on favorite for the #2 slot barring two big-conference undefeateds.

Michigan proved to be all hat and no cattle when they left the Big Ten confines; even LSU, who didn't even win their division, handed the Irish their hat. OSU may well have been overrated; either that, or Tressel got his coaching head handed to him tonight. Those boys down south can play.

Don't get too cocky, my good southern friends. You can't schedule the Pittsburgh Steelers to beef up your out-conference sked; it's not fair to beat up on coaches who are making less than you are.

Smurfy

I didn't stay up to see the end of the Oklahoma-Boise State Fiesta Bowl game last night, but it was a doozy. A pair of retro plays were the highlights. If you haven't seen the highlights, follow the link above and put up with the 0:15 truck ad to see them.

A hook-and-ladder play with 0:07 got BSU into OT. I haven't seen anything like it in a quarter-century; it was 25 years ago today that Miami finished the fist half by scoring on a variant of the hook-and-ladder in a classic playoff game with San Diego.

Then, after the Sooners scored first in OT, a TD pass from a wide receiver set up in the shotgun got them within one. BSU went old school, going for two, and scoring on a Statue of Liberty play, faking a right flanker screen and slipping the ball behind the back to the halfback, who scooted untouched to the left for the game winner.

My mind's doing a flashback to a Jetsons episode featuring a robot football game, where one team runs the Statue of Liberty; the robo-QB pulls a lit torch out of its torso for flourish.

This is an advertisement for a playoff system. A 13-0 BSU should have a chance to win a national title, but there's little way, baring a major out-conference upset early in a season, that a mid-major's going to be in the top 2. 1984's BYU team was the only team to do that in modern history; they knocked off a well-regarded Pitt team (who wasn't that good, but was thought to be going in) in September and rolled to a 12-0 mark.