Outliers

We're going through a chilly week in Michigan, where we're expecting close to a half-foot of snow tomorrow. We're not alone; Drudge has this piece featured up front and large, mentioning that New York is on pace for its second-coldest April ever.

Curmudgeons on the right will be quick to question global warming during such cold snaps, but they miss the bigger picture. The general consensus on global warming is that things warmed up by a degree in the 20th century. One degree.

Our extended winter will see us have a low of 28 this evening and a "high" of 32 tomorrow. Had we been suffering from a similar chilly outlier back in 1907, we'd have a low of 27 and a high of 31, assuming that the extra degree is evenly spread.

What the current issue is with climate change is that the birds fly south a bit later and head north a bit sooner, or not fly south at all if the change makes the area bearable year round. Plants move a bit further north or a bit further up the mountains. Winters are just a smidge warmer and the heat waves in the summer are a bit nastier, but not to a point where a layman can really tell.

There are some areas where the change can be seen. For instance, Lake Superior is warming up not one degree but 2.5 in the last 30 years. That's some chilly water up there, even in summer, so the picture of the 60s beach quartet is a bit bogus; you risk freezing your noonies swimming in Superior without a wet suit.

However, that extra warmth, even it doesn't make it swimmable, will cause less ice and more open water, thus more evaporation and a lower water level. Since Superior flows down into the other Great Lakes, what happens there will flow (or not flow, as the case might be) down the watershed. I recall going up to my grandparent's old cottage just off Lake Huron on Tawas Point; the beach is a lot bigger than the ones I remember as a grade-schooler.

That lack of ice will have business benefits, as the shipping season can go on a bit longer before the ice makes thing impassable for the rest of the winter. However, the shrinking lakes will mean that piers and boat ramps will have to be moved, replaced or lengthened and water inlets might be high and dry.

It's these small changes that can add up over time. Just because they're small doesn't mean there not there. Outliers will still be outliers; modest climate change will merely nudge them a tad in one direction.