I feel like I'm living in one of those movies where the hero politician comes out of nowhere to win the election; if the movie is done well, they'll have a cameo from a couple of real-life pundits to comment on the hero's unexpected rise.
CNN has the national race Rudy 24 Huckabee 22, Romney 16. It's not the small lead that Rasmussen had for him last week, but he's at least breathing down Da Mayor's neck.
Here's a very interesting SurveyUSA South Carolina poll. The raw numbers has the race at Huck 30, Romney 19,Thompson 18, Rudy 13, McCain 10.
Huckabee carries the day on every issue save the environment (and that was only 2% of the sample); he won on every other issue. People who thought X was their #1 issue voted for him more than anyone else, tying Rudy with the Social Security voters. He even racked up a 30% plurality on immigration voters; there's a market for his more moderate stance on the issue, possibly because everyone else save McCain is trying to "out-Tancredo Tancredo" as Tortilla Curtain Tom put it in the last debate.
What's more interesting is the ideological breakdown. He leads among self-described conservatives (71% of the pool) 33, 20 Thompson and 19 Romney. However, he also leads among self-identified moderates (20% of the pool) 24 to 20 Romney and 19 Rudy.
Reflect upon that for a moment. A Southern Baptist pastor is the first choice of Republican moderates. He's also the first choice of independents crossing over into the primary (33-18 Thompson-17 Romney). There goes the CW that a social conservative can't appeal to moderates and independents.
Not every moderate is the fiscal-conservative/social liberal that is predominant in the media; many moderates are social conservative/fiscal center-left, especially in rural areas and in the South. Even folks who are moderate on both economics and social policy will have plenty to like in Huckabee; he presents conservative social arguments in a winsome manner and is hard to label as a pawn of big business.
One interesting point is that his voters skew older; Fred Thompson wins the 18-34 block 26-22, while Huck carries all the older demographics. 40 years ago, Nixon won as a law and order candidate, but Fred's Law and Order candidacy is not quite catching on, except with the youth.
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