Since 2009, the Fed has had interest rates at their practical floor of 0.25% or lower for their bank-to-bank Fed Funds rate; the current rate is at 0.14% as we go to press. The Fed is expected to raise that figure at the next Open Market committee meeting on Wednesday, likely to 0.5%.
Central banks have a dual goal of controlling inflation while promoting long-term economic growth. Inflation has been largely in check as of later, which allows the Fed to err on the side of growth, pinning the Fed Funds rate as low as it can go without charging banks for having excess reserves rather than letting them earn interest on it.
As I noted the other day, the Eurozone's Fed, the European Central Bank, toyed with that last year, and the Swedish and Swiss central banks still have negative rates; the Bank of Canada was pondering it as a tool to get out of a mild recession. With a stagnant economy, the ECB errs even more on the growth side, as the Politico piece I linked to notes.
However, modest inflation fears might be starting to creep in. For instance, the three-month Treasury Bill rate, long under a tenth of a percent, has crept up to 0.22% as of this morning. That's not much of a change, but there are a number of inflationary pressures that could blow up in the medium term.
Reducing the US's carbon footprint post-Paris (even if limited to regulatory changes by a Congress not willing to go along with major changes) will likely be inflationary; moving from fossil fuels to alternatives will be somewhat pricier, or else we would have made those switches without much government prodding.
Any changes in the supply of oil could lead to a spike there; there is something of an oversupply due to a stagnant economy in much of the world and US shale oil coming on line, but a regional brawl in the Middle East might take some of that supply off-line.
If the job market improves to the point where there is upward pressure on wages (unlikely in the short-term given the supply of underemployed and discouraged workers) that would be inflationary as well.
That might well be in the Fed's collective mind as they go into the OMC meeting on Wednesday. A move up to a 0.25%-0.5% range might be called for, but given the low oil prices likely to stay low for a while barring a major disruption in supply (the ISIS War spilling into the Persian Gulf, for example), they might well stay put.
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