This is an interesting development-
Conservative donors have engaged a major GOP consulting firm in Florida to research the feasibility of mounting a late, independent run for president amid growing fears that Donald Trump could win the Republican nomination.
A memo prepared for the group zeroes in on ballot access as a looming obstacle for any independent candidate, along with actually identifying a viable, widely known contender and coalescing financial support for that person. The two states with the earliest deadlines for independent candidates, Texas and North Carolina, also have some of the highest hurdles for independents to get on the ballot, according to the research.
The problem with a Conservative Party (my suggestion for simplicity) calving off of a Trump-led GOP (now standing for Great Old Party with new management) is that winning would be an uphill struggle. If Trump has 40% or so of the primary electorate, that would give him roughly 20% of the general election vote.
That assumes that the other 60% of the Republican electorate would jump ship for the new Conservative Party. Some might well stay, especially if the nominee of the Conservative Party isn't all that conservative. A few Cruz or Carson voters might stick with the old ship if the CP nominee has too much establishment in him.
That leaves the Conservatives with roughly 30% of the vote. The problem is that in a roughly 50-50 race, Democrats still have 50% of the vote as a starting point. Trump might shave off a few percent of blue-collar whites (or even blacks, if you point out that lax immigration rules hurts them more than most) leaving things a 45% Democrat, 30% Conservative, 25% GOP split.
How do the Conservatives conjure up a plurality from that starting point? Showing that they have forcibly kicked the redneck side of the body politic under the bus might give them some brownie points with Democratic-leaning swing voters who see current Republicans as tainted by it being the landing site of Dixicrats and ye-old Southern Strategy. That might get you to 42-33-25 if you're lucky.
That still leaves a 9% gap. If you run left to try and win over more Democratic voters, you'll run the risk of your right-most folks liking Trump better. Running a candidate that can reach minority voters might help, but not 9% worth.
Assuming Trump hangs on to 20% of the Republican-leaning electorate, you'll need to get 5% of normal Democratic voters to switch over, turning my 42-33-25 into a 38-37-25 squeaker. That could be done by focusing on Hillary's untrustworthiness and establishment ties, but it doesn't seem like a long-term strategy.
However, this might just be a one-election issue, but it could be an ongoing issue if the Trump faction stays coherent.
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