The president seems poised to make his pick to replace Justice Kennedy early next week. The conventional wisdom is that he's got it boiled down to three options, with appeals court judge Brett Kavanaugh the front runner.
Kavanaugh comes across as a pragmatic conservative, which seems to have rubbed some conservatives the wrong way, making a less-than-strident pro-life argument in a case of a detained immigrant teen looking for an abortion. That factoid seems to be a feature rather than a bug, as a 180-proof pro-lifer might have a hard time getting confirmed with the current Senate.
As a appellate court judge, he had to take into account the lay of the land above him, as there was a five-vote majority on the Supreme Court to maintain the status quo on abortion. Kavanaugh clerked for Kennedy, so he had a good understanding of where Mr. Swing Vote would likely come down on things.
As a supreme court justice, Kavanaugh would be the swing vote, assuming the other eight justices hold to form. He'd be freer to set precedent in that spot, as there's nothing downstream to worry about. It would likely win over the RINO Sisters and a handful of moderate Democrats and get him within hailing distance of 60 votes; he doesn't need 60 in a filibuster-free Senate these days, but it would give him some bipartisan cache going forward.
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